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Box, Inc (0HP1) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Box, Inc $33.48, price $34.60, upside -3.2%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Box, Inc
0HP1 · LSENeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $33.48 · Fairly valued (−3.2%)
✓Quality 68/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +8.8 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -19.8% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2026 9.8%
✓generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 0/100
!The models disagree: range $23.44 to $83.80
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range $21.68 – $36.22 · fair‑value band $23.44 – $83.80 · the $34.60 price screens above the $33.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Box, Inc. provides a cloud content management platform that enables organizations of various sizes to manage cloud content from anywhere and on any device in the United States, Poland, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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Box, Inc. provides a cloud content management platform that enables organizations of various sizes to manage cloud content from anywhere and on any device in the United States, Poland, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company's Software-as-a-Service platform enables users to work with their content as they need from secure external collaboration, workspaces to e-signature processes, and content workflows improving employee productivity and accelerating business processes. It offers web, mobile, and desktop applications of its solutions on a platform, as well as the ability to develop custom applications. The company was formerly known as Box.net, Inc. and changed its name to Box, Inc. in November 2011. Box, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.
Stock analysis
Box, Inc (0HP1) currently trades at $34.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.48, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $31.15 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $34.60 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $7.08, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $23.44 (bear) to $83.80 (bull), the price of $34.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality).
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Box, Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2026 versus $874M in FY2022, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was $115M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $5.2B · EPS (TTM) $−0.3190 · Net margin 9.8% · Return on equity −576% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1% · Operating margin −22.2% · Revenue (TTM) $676M · Revenue growth (YoY) +13.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
Fair Value models
Bear $23.44
Fair Value $33.48
Bull $83.80
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$35.33
$64.09
$117.75
75
5Y EBITDA Exit
$18.12
$26.26
$36.07
73
Growth DCF
$34.61
$60.29
$103.62
73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$35.33
$64.09
$117.75
75
Owner Earnings
$16.42
$28.90
$51.18
71
5Y Revenue Exit
$16.69
$23.19
$31.28
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$18.12
$26.26
$36.07
73
5Y P/E Exit
$20.77
$32.01
$44.87
68
10Y Revenue Exit
$22.53
$31.15
$43.35
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$23.66
$33.41
$47.45
66
10Y P/E Exit
$25.41
$37.64
$54.99
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$5.47
$29.58
$41.00
63
Lynch FV
$8.19
$11.71
$15.22
61
PEG = 1.0
$8.19
$11.71
$15.22
57
EPV
$7.36
$8.11
$8.76
70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.9200
$1.83
$2.77
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.9200
$1.58
$1.93
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$12.07
$16.09
$20.11
63
P/S Multiple
$10.26
$13.68
$17.10
58
P/B Multiple
$3.09
$4.12
$5.15
55
EV/EBIT
$10.45
$13.06
$15.67
63
EV/EBITDA
$10.51
$13.14
$15.77
64
EV/Revenue
$7.89
$10.16
$12.42
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.6900
$0.9200
$1.37
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$34.61
$60.29
$103.62
73
Rev-Margin DCF
$16.69
$23.43
$32.59
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$4.55
$7.08
$17.04
68
ROIC Compounder
$7.36
$8.11
$8.76
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$11.72
$16.74
$21.76
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
68/100
Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Profitability
71
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
85
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.9%
’15
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’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
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’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 7%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.9%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.4% a year for the price and +5.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.7%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+8.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.8%
Projected 2031 (sales)+6.0%
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- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
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Values & ESG
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None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is Box, Inc (0HP1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $33.48 versus a price of $34.60, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0HP1?
Our model-based fair value for Box, Inc is $33.48 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $34.60.
What is the quality score of 0HP1?
Box, Inc has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Box, Inc (0HP1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $33.48 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.44, optimistic scenario $83.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Box, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $33.48, about −3% upside versus a price of $34.60 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $23.44, optimistic scenario $83.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Box, Inc (0HP1)?
Box, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $676M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Box, Inc (0HP1)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Box, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +5.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0HP1 use?
Our models discount Box, Inc at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 1.41, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Box, Inc that is +5.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Box, Inc (0HP1) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Box, Inc grew +8.8 % a year. The price currently implies +5.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Box, Inc (0HP1)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.79 %: that much free cash flow Box, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Box, Inc (0HP1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Box, Inc it is $33.48 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $34.60. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Box, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0HP1 trades above its calculated fair value: price $34.60, fair value $33.48, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0HP1?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($34.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($33.48). For Box, Inc the two are $1.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Box, Inc worth?
The market values Box, Inc at about $5.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $34.60; our models calculate a fair value of $33.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0HP1?
Our models span a range for Box, Inc: cautious scenario $23.44, base $33.48, optimistic $83.80 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $34.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Is Box, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $34.60, calculated fair value $33.48 (−3%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0HP1 calculated?
We run Box, Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $33.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Box, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Box, Inc (0HP1)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $34.60. Our model-based fair value is $33.48, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Box, Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($23.44 to $83.80). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Box, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Box, Inc (0HP1)?
The market capitalisation of Box, Inc is $5.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Box, Inc (0HP1)?
Earnings per share at Box, Inc are $−0.3190. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Box, Inc (0HP1)?
The net margin of Box, Inc is 9.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Box, Inc (0HP1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Box, Inc is −576% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Box, Inc (0HP1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Box, Inc is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Box, Inc (0HP1)?
The operating margin of Box, Inc is −22.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Box, Inc (0HP1)?
Revenue at Box, Inc is growing +13.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Box, Inc (0HP1)?
Earnings per share at Box, Inc are growing −58.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Box, Inc (0HP1) carry?
The net debt of Box, Inc is $181M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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