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Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Iridium Communications Inc $20.54, price $49.08, upside -58.2%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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GB · ISIN US46269C1027

IC Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Iridium Communications Inc

0JDO · LSE

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $20.54 · Strongly overvalued (−58.2%)
✓Quality 69/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +8.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.6% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓1.2% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 56/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$63.26 $15.54 Fair Value $20.54 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $15.54 – $63.26 · fair‑value band $13.16 – $25.68 · the $49.08 price screens above the $20.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Iridium Communications Inc. provides mobile voice and data communications services and products to businesses, the United States and foreign governments, non-governmental organizations, and consumers in the United States, Canada, and internationally.

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Iridium Communications Inc. provides mobile voice and data communications services and products to businesses, the United States and foreign governments, non-governmental organizations, and consumers in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company offers mobile satellite communications services for land mobile end users and aviation sectors; broadband terminals, embedded devices, and handsets for merchant shipping, fishing, leisure and research vessels, and specialized watercraft; satellite-based IoT services; hosted payload and other data services; and other data services and engineering services. It also provides postpaid mobile voice and data satellite communications; prepaid mobile voice satellite communications; push-to-talk; broadband data; Internet of Things (IoT); and satellite time and location services. In addition, the company offers personnel tracking devices; asset tracking devices for equipment, vehicles, and aircrafts; beyond-line-of-sight aircraft communications applications; maritime communications applications; specialized communications solutions for high-value individuals; and mobile communications and data devices for the military and other government agencies, such as secure satellite handsets; and maintenance services for the U.S. government's dedicated gateway. Further, it provides satellite handsets, voice and data modems, broadband data devices, and IoT data devices; and various accessories for its devices that include batteries, holsters, earbud headphones, portable auxiliary antennas, antenna adaptors, USB data cables, and charging units. The company sells its products and services to commercial end users through a wholesale distribution network that include service providers, and value-added resellers and value-added manufacturers. The company was formerly known as Iridium Holdings LLC and changed its name to Iridium Communications Inc. in September 2009. Iridium Communications Inc. is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

Stock analysis

Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO) currently trades at $49.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.54, 58.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $39.07 per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the $49.08 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.78, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $13.16 (bear) to $25.68 (bull), the price of $49.08 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality).

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Iridium Communications Inc reported revenue of $872M in FY2025 versus $615M in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was $114M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $5.3B · EPS (TTM) $−0.0100 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 19.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8% · Operating margin 15.1% · Revenue (TTM) $884M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 216% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

Fair Value models

Bear $13.16 Fair Value $20.54 Bull $25.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $39.38 $61.54 $95.00 77
Growth DCF $39.72 $58.83 $85.68 75
Residual Income $5.93 $7.61 $12.59 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $39.38 $61.54 $95.00 77
Owner Earnings $31.86 $49.69 $76.61 73
5Y Revenue Exit $23.02 $32.58 $44.35 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $37.10 $59.49 $85.83 72
5Y P/E Exit $23.44 $33.38 $43.68 69
10Y Revenue Exit $28.29 $38.52 $51.74 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $37.55 $57.01 $83.33 65
10Y P/E Exit $28.97 $39.07 $51.23 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $6.99 $24.13 $32.40 64
Lynch FV $5.58 $7.97 $10.36 61
PEG = 1.0 $5.58 $7.97 $10.36 57
EPV $17.88 $20.57 $22.88 70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.96 $9.88 $14.96 67
DDM Multi-Stage $4.96 $8.46 $10.43 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $15.41 $20.54 $25.68 63
P/S Multiple $13.10 $17.46 $21.83 58
P/B Multiple $9.35 $12.46 $15.58 55
EV/EBIT $29.48 $39.02 $48.55 63
EV/EBITDA $39.94 $52.96 $65.99 64
EV/Revenue $14.57 $20.44 $26.31 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.08 $2.78 $4.15 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $39.72 $58.83 $85.68 75
Rev-Margin DCF $23.02 $33.01 $45.00 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $5.93 $7.61 $12.59 74
ROIC Compounder $18.73 $22.54 $26.50 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $13.30 $19.00 $24.71 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70

Profitability 46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 92
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 82
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 38
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 80
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 91
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.8% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.1% (2020) → 27.1% (2025)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.1% a year for the price and +0.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+2.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.4%

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Iridium Communications Inc · Fair Value
$20.54 −58%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Iridium Communications Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0JDO

Frequently asked questions

Is Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.54 versus a price of $49.08, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0JDO?
Our model-based fair value for Iridium Communications Inc is $20.54 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $49.08.
What is the quality score of 0JDO?
Iridium Communications Inc has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.54 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.16, optimistic scenario $25.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Iridium Communications Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.54, about −58% upside versus a price of $49.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.16, optimistic scenario $25.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO)?
Iridium Communications Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $884M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Iridium Communications Inc pay a dividend?
Iridium Communications Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.22% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Iridium Communications Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +7.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0JDO use?
Our models discount Iridium Communications Inc at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Iridium Communications Inc that is +7.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Iridium Communications Inc grew +8.4 % a year. The price currently implies +7.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.66 %: that much free cash flow Iridium Communications Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Iridium Communications Inc it is $20.54 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $49.08. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Iridium Communications Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0JDO trades above its calculated fair value: price $49.08, fair value $20.54, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0JDO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($49.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.54). For Iridium Communications Inc the two are $28.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Iridium Communications Inc worth?
The market values Iridium Communications Inc at about $5.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $49.08; our models calculate a fair value of $20.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0JDO?
Our models span a range for Iridium Communications Inc: cautious scenario $13.16, base $20.54, optimistic $25.68 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $49.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0JDO from its 52-week high?
Iridium Communications Inc trades at $49.08, about 13% below its 52-week high of $56.17 and 216% above the low of $15.54 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.54 is for.
Is Iridium Communications Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $49.08, calculated fair value $20.54 (−58%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0JDO calculated?
We run Iridium Communications Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Iridium Communications Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $49.08. Our model-based fair value is $20.54, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Iridium Communications Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($25.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($13.16 to $25.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO) come from?
Earnings per share at Iridium Communications Inc grew +2.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.0 %, EBIT margin −6.1 %, tax rate +7.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Iridium Communications Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO)?
The market capitalisation of Iridium Communications Inc is $5.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO)?
Earnings per share at Iridium Communications Inc are $−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO)?
The dividend yield of Iridium Communications Inc is 1.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO)?
The net margin of Iridium Communications Inc is 13.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Iridium Communications Inc is 19.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Iridium Communications Inc is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO)?
The operating margin of Iridium Communications Inc is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO)?
Revenue at Iridium Communications Inc is growing +3.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO)?
Earnings per share at Iridium Communications Inc are growing −55.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Iridium Communications Inc (0JDO) carry?
The net debt of Iridium Communications Inc is $1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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