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LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of LGI Homes, Inc $54.29, price $47.56, upside +14.2%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
LGI Homes, Inc
0JSI · LSESpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value $54.29 · Undervalued (+14.2%)
!Quality 37/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −6.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.2% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 21/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range $33.85 – $64.04 · fair‑value band $40.72 – $67.87 · the $47.56 price screens below the $54.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
LGI Homes, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and sale of new homes in the United States. It markets and sells attached and detached entry-level homes and active adult offerings under the LGI Homes brand; and luxury homes under the Terrata Homes brand.
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LGI Homes, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and sale of new homes in the United States. It markets and sells attached and detached entry-level homes and active adult offerings under the LGI Homes brand; and luxury homes under the Terrata Homes brand. The company also engages in the wholesale business, which includes building and selling homes to large institutions interested in acquiring single-family rental properties through bulk sales agreements. It operates in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, Colorado, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, Tennessee, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Alabama, California, Oregon, Nevada, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Utah. LGI Homes, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
Stock analysis
LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI) currently trades at $47.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $54.29, implying the stock looks roughly 12.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $156.07 per share, and 13 of the 15 models we run sit above the $47.56 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $27.64, and 2 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $40.72 (bear) to $67.87 (bull), the price of $47.56 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality).
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
LGI Homes, Inc reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $3.1B in FY2021, a compound −13.5%/yr. Reported net income was $72.6M in FY2025, compounding −35.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B · P/E ratio 0.0 · EPS (TTM) $16.58 · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.1% · Operating margin −0.1% · Revenue (TTM) $1.7B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
Fair Value models
Bear $40.72
Fair Value $54.29
Bull $67.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($12.54 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$66.65
$64.85
$66.18
71
Owner Earnings
$81.57
$156.07
$291.31
70
EPV
$24.24
$27.64
$30.58
70
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$81.57
$156.07
$291.31
70
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$21.72
$122.04
$169.52
63
Lynch FV
$34.18
$48.83
$63.48
61
PEG = 1.0
$34.18
$48.83
$63.48
57
EPV
$24.24
$27.64
$30.58
70
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$47.91
$63.87
$79.84
63
P/S Multiple
$40.72
$54.29
$67.87
58
P/B Multiple
$40.72
$54.29
$67.87
55
EV/EBIT
$50.10
$65.91
$81.71
63
EV/EBITDA
$38.79
$50.82
$62.85
64
EV/Revenue
$34.65
$48.35
$62.04
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$46.14
$61.83
$92.28
51
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$66.65
$64.85
$66.18
71
ROIC Compounder
$24.24
$27.64
$30.58
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$50.02
$71.45
$92.89
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
37/100
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Profitability
24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
6
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
73
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
4
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
34
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
93
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−24.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−24.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−24.6% vs 2.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
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Values & ESG
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None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $54.29 versus a price of $47.56, about +14% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0JSI?
Our model-based fair value for LGI Homes, Inc is $54.29 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $47.56.
What is the quality score of 0JSI?
LGI Homes, Inc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $54.29 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $40.72, optimistic scenario $67.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the LGI Homes, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $54.29, about +14% upside versus a price of $47.56 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $40.72, optimistic scenario $67.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI)?
LGI Homes, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For LGI Homes, Inc it is $54.29 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $47.56. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is LGI Homes, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0JSI trades below its calculated fair value: price $47.56, fair value $54.29, a gap of about +14% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0JSI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($47.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($54.29). For LGI Homes, Inc the two are $6.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is LGI Homes, Inc worth?
The market values LGI Homes, Inc at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $47.56; our models calculate a fair value of $54.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0JSI?
Our models span a range for LGI Homes, Inc: cautious scenario $40.72, base $54.29, optimistic $67.87 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $47.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Is LGI Homes, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $47.56, calculated fair value $54.29 (+14%), Quality Score 37/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0JSI calculated?
We run LGI Homes, Inc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $54.29, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. LGI Homes, Inc currently trades 12 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $47.56. Our model-based fair value is $54.29, about +14% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with LGI Homes, Inc right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI) come from?
Earnings per share at LGI Homes, Inc grew +11.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.5 %, EBIT margin −4.6 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of LGI Homes, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI)?
The market capitalisation of LGI Homes, Inc is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of LGI Homes, Inc is 0.0 (as of Jul 24, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What are the earnings per share of LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI)?
Earnings per share at LGI Homes, Inc are $16.58 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI)?
The net margin of LGI Homes, Inc is 4.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of LGI Homes, Inc is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of LGI Homes, Inc is 10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI)?
The operating margin of LGI Homes, Inc is −0.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI)?
Revenue at LGI Homes, Inc is growing −9.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI)?
Earnings per share at LGI Homes, Inc are growing −47.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI) generate?
The free cash flow of LGI Homes, Inc is −$141M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does LGI Homes, Inc (0JSI) carry?
The net debt of LGI Homes, Inc is $1.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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