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Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc $219, price $143, upside +53.8%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc
0K6R · LSEClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $219.22 · Strongly undervalued (+53.8%)
✓Quality 72/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +22.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 21.6% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 77/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range $123.88 – $181.92 · fair‑value band $109.85 – $309.44 · the $142.54 price screens below the $219.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercialize pharmaceuticals for neurological, psychiatric, endocrine, and immunological disorders in the United States and internationally.
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Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercialize pharmaceuticals for neurological, psychiatric, endocrine, and immunological disorders in the United States and internationally. The company's products include INGREZZA for tardive dyskinesia and chorea associated with Huntington's disease; Orilissa tablets for endometriosis; Oriahnn capsules to treat uterine fibroids; and CRENESSITY to treat congenital adrenal hyperplasia, as well as offers products under the name of ALKINDI and Efmody. Its product candidates in clinical development includes NBI-1076986 to treat movement disorders; Osavampator for inadequate response to treatment in major depressive disorder; NBI-1117568 for the treatment of schizophrenia and bipolar mania; NBI-1117567 for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease; NBI 921355 for the treatment of epilepsy; NBIP-01435 for the treatment of congenital adrenal hyperplasia; NBIP-2118 for the treatment of obesity and related metabolic diseases; and NBI-1070770 to treat major depressive disorder; and NBI-1117570, NBI-1117567, NBI-1117569, NBI-1140675, and NBI-1065890 for neuropsychiatric and neurological conditions. The company also has license and collaboration agreements with Nxera Pharma UK Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.; Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.; Sanofi S.A.; Tanabe Pharma Corporation; and AbbVie Inc. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock analysis
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R) currently trades at $142.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $219.22, implying the stock looks roughly 35.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $238.03 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the $142.54 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $24.04, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $109.85 (bear) to $309.44 (bull), the price of $142.54 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality).
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +26.0%/yr. Reported net income was $479M in FY2025, compounding +52.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $14.6B · P/E ratio 2.4 · P/S ratio 0.40 · EPS (TTM) $0.7300 · Net margin 16.7% · Return on equity 22.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.2% · Operating margin 22.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
Fair Value models
Bear $109.85
Fair Value $219.22
Bull $309.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5520 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$153.47
$232.05
$477.05
72
EPV
$48.94
$55.42
$61.02
70
Growth DCF
$144.61
$268.15
$467.17
70
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$153.47
$232.05
$477.05
72
Owner Earnings
$98.94
$209.70
$433.68
66
5Y Revenue Exit
$93.16
$145.15
$253.12
66
5Y EBITDA Exit
$102.41
$163.85
$283.91
68
5Y P/E Exit
$107.94
$214.88
$357.77
63
10Y Revenue Exit
$110.23
$208.26
$263.11
62
10Y EBITDA Exit
$119.23
$227.72
$407.95
61
10Y P/E Exit
$123.18
$239.36
$423.76
57
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$35.89
$250.28
$351.24
61
Lynch FV
$129.31
$184.72
$240.14
59
PEG = 1.0
$129.31
$184.72
$240.14
55
EPV
$48.94
$55.42
$61.02
70
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$79.17
$105.56
$131.94
63
P/S Multiple
$59.15
$78.86
$98.58
58
P/B Multiple
$67.29
$89.72
$112.15
55
EV/EBIT
$102.62
$134.20
$165.79
63
EV/EBITDA
$79.53
$103.42
$127.32
64
EV/Revenue
$63.07
$86.72
$110.38
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$17.94
$24.04
$35.87
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$144.61
$268.15
$467.17
70
Rev-Margin DCF
$101.41
$165.07
$299.05
65
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$35.06
$45.19
$69.50
67
ROIC Compounder
$61.66
$85.81
$103.76
68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$166.62
$238.03
$309.44
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
72/100
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Profitability
66
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
92
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
88
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
37
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
29
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +64.5% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.8%
’12
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+41.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+41.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2018 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 22%
2025 sits 89% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+18.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.8% a year for the price and +15.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+32.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+18.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+16.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+14.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+12.3%
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Frequently asked questions
Is Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $219.22 versus a price of $142.54, about +54% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0K6R?
Our model-based fair value for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc is $219.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $142.54.
What is the quality score of 0K6R?
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $219.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $109.85, optimistic scenario $309.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $219.22, about +54% upside versus a price of $142.54 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $109.85, optimistic scenario $309.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R)?
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +5.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0K6R use?
Our models discount Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc that is +5.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc grew +22.3 % a year. The price currently implies +5.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.12 %: that much free cash flow Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc it is $219.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $142.54. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0K6R trades below its calculated fair value: price $142.54, fair value $219.22, a gap of about +54% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0K6R?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($142.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($219.22). For Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc the two are $76.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc worth?
The market values Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc at about $14.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $142.54; our models calculate a fair value of $219.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0K6R?
Our models span a range for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc: cautious scenario $109.85, base $219.22, optimistic $309.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $142.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Is Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $142.54, calculated fair value $219.22 (+54%), Quality Score 72/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0K6R calculated?
We run Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $219.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc currently trades 35 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $142.54. Our model-based fair value is $219.22, about +54% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The model range is unusually wide ($109.85 to $309.44). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R)?
The market capitalisation of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc is $14.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc is 2.4 (as of Jul 25, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc is 0.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R)?
Earnings per share at Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc are $0.7300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R)?
The net margin of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc is 16.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc is 22.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc is 12.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R)?
The operating margin of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc is 22.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R)?
Revenue at Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc is growing +42.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R)?
Earnings per share at Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc are growing +23.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc (0K6R) carry?
The net debt of Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc is $174M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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