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Twilio Inc (0LHL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Twilio Inc $41.50, price $295, upside -85.9%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Twilio Inc
0LHL · LSEStretched ValuationQuality growthStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $41.50 · Strongly overvalued (−85.9%)
✓Quality 73/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +23.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.0% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 30/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range $106.83 – $301.04 · fair‑value band $38.22 – $44.20 · the $294.57 price screens above the $41.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Twilio Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides customer engagement platform solutions in the United States and internationally.
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Twilio Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides customer engagement platform solutions in the United States and internationally. The company provides various application programming interfaces and software solutions for communications between customers and end users, including messaging, voice, email, video interactions, digital engagement centers, marketing campaigns, and user authentication and identity solutions. It also offers software products to build direct and personalized relationships with their end users, such as Segment, a platform that provides tools to harness the power of contextual data by unifying real-time information collected throughout each customer's journey into a unique profile. Twilio Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Stock analysis
Twilio Inc (0LHL) currently trades at $294.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.50, 85.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $121.75 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $294.57 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $6.85, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $38.22 (bear) to $44.20 (bull), the price of $294.57 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality).
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Twilio Inc reported revenue of $5.1B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was $33.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $47.1B · EPS (TTM) $−5.43 · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.2% · Operating margin 7.7% · Revenue (TTM) $5.3B · Revenue growth (YoY) +20.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($5.82 to $310.30). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $38.22
Fair Value $41.50
Bull $44.20
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$176.63
$268.23
$553.80
72
EPV
$21.01
$23.24
$25.16
70
Growth DCF
$166.30
$310.30
$542.29
70
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$176.63
$268.23
$553.80
72
Owner Earnings
$47.06
$95.90
$194.67
66
5Y Revenue Exit
$68.14
$89.74
$133.04
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
$83.97
$121.75
$195.02
69
5Y P/E Exit
$59.21
$82.89
$108.19
67
10Y Revenue Exit
$101.08
$160.15
$181.14
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$113.08
$193.47
$317.77
62
10Y P/E Exit
$95.41
$141.36
$200.89
59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$2.33
$16.23
$22.78
61
Lynch FV
$8.39
$11.98
$15.57
59
PEG = 1.0
$8.39
$11.98
$15.57
55
EPV
$21.01
$23.24
$25.16
70
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$5.13
$6.85
$8.56
63
P/S Multiple
$4.36
$5.82
$7.27
58
P/B Multiple
$4.36
$5.82
$7.27
55
EV/EBIT
$30.76
$38.71
$46.66
63
EV/EBITDA
$45.58
$58.47
$71.36
64
EV/Revenue
$22.98
$29.87
$36.76
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$39.56
$53.01
$79.12
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$166.30
$310.30
$542.29
70
Rev-Margin DCF
$73.10
$102.05
$164.39
67
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$52.27
$47.53
$45.06
68
ROIC Compounder
$21.01
$23.24
$25.16
68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$10.80
$15.44
$20.07
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
73/100
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Profitability
26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
89
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
17
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
98
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +40.7% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−26.7% (2020) → 3.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.3% a year for the price and +7.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+14.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+9.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+8.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.9%
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- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
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- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
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None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is Twilio Inc (0LHL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $41.50 versus a price of $294.57, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0LHL?
Our model-based fair value for Twilio Inc is $41.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $294.57.
What is the quality score of 0LHL?
Twilio Inc has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Twilio Inc (0LHL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $41.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $38.22, optimistic scenario $44.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Twilio Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $41.50, about −86% upside versus a price of $294.57 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $38.22, optimistic scenario $44.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Twilio Inc (0LHL)?
Twilio Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Twilio Inc (0LHL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Twilio Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +28.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0LHL use?
Our models discount Twilio Inc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 1.36, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Twilio Inc that is +28.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Twilio Inc (0LHL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Twilio Inc grew +23.5 % a year. The price currently implies +28.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Twilio Inc (0LHL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.19 %: that much free cash flow Twilio Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Twilio Inc (0LHL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Twilio Inc it is $41.50 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $294.57. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Twilio Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0LHL trades above its calculated fair value: price $294.57, fair value $41.50, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0LHL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($294.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($41.50). For Twilio Inc the two are $253.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Twilio Inc worth?
The market values Twilio Inc at about $47.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $294.57; our models calculate a fair value of $41.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0LHL?
Our models span a range for Twilio Inc: cautious scenario $38.22, base $41.50, optimistic $44.20 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $294.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Is Twilio Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $294.57, calculated fair value $41.50 (−86%), Quality Score 73/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0LHL calculated?
We run Twilio Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $41.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Twilio Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Twilio Inc (0LHL)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $294.57. Our model-based fair value is $41.50, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Twilio Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($44.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Key figures of Twilio Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Twilio Inc (0LHL)?
The market capitalisation of Twilio Inc is $47.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Twilio Inc (0LHL)?
Earnings per share at Twilio Inc are $−5.43. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Twilio Inc (0LHL)?
The net margin of Twilio Inc is 0.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Twilio Inc (0LHL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Twilio Inc is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Twilio Inc (0LHL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Twilio Inc is −4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Twilio Inc (0LHL)?
The operating margin of Twilio Inc is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Twilio Inc (0LHL)?
Revenue at Twilio Inc is growing +20.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Twilio Inc (0LHL)?
Earnings per share at Twilio Inc are growing +375% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Twilio Inc (0LHL) carry?
The net debt of Twilio Inc is $453M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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