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ASML Holding (0M42) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ASML Holding $1,163, price $1,864, upside -37.6%, quality 82 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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GB · ISIN USN070592100

AH Broad data Sep 24, 2026

ASML Holding

0M42 · LSE

Quality Too ExpensiveQuality growthExcellent quality, but the valuation looks stretched.

!Fair value $1,163 · Strongly overvalued (−37.6%)
✓Quality 82/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +15.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 30.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.2% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 93/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$1,978 $370.77 Fair Value $1,163 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $370.77 – $1,978 · fair‑value band $745.96 – $1,892 · the $1,864 price screens above the $1,163 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems.

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ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, it provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. Additionally, the company offers hardware, software, and services to chipmakers to produce the patterns of integrated circuits. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.

Stock analysis

ASML Holding (0M42) currently trades at $1,864, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1,163, 37.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $669.45 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $1,864 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $243.03, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $745.96 (bear) to $1,892 (bull), the price of $1,864 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality).

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

ASML Holding reported revenue of €32.7B in FY2025 versus €18.6B in FY2021, a compound +15.1%/yr. Reported net income was €9.6B in FY2025, compounding +13.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $718B · P/E ratio 0.7 · P/S ratio 0.21 · EPS (TTM) $25.33 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 29.4% · Return on equity 53.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 98% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

Fair Value models

Bear $745.96 Fair Value $1,163 Bull $1,892
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($15.90 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $445.38 $808.92 $1,503 73
Growth DCF $435.91 $764.29 $1,319 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $381.69 $666.96 $1,034 71
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $445.38 $808.92 $1,503 73
Owner Earnings $369.67 $679.88 $1,235 70
5Y Revenue Exit $274.05 $433.95 $649.35 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $381.69 $666.96 $1,034 71
5Y P/E Exit $425.43 $761.64 $1,161 66
10Y Revenue Exit $322.59 $497.76 $767.61 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $399.51 $669.45 $1,098 64
10Y P/E Exit $428.45 $739.21 $1,207 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $187.08 $1,018 $1,412 61
Lynch FV $282.52 $403.60 $524.68 58
PEG = 1.0 $282.52 $403.60 $524.68 55
EPV $261.60 $298.29 $329.95 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple $412.68 $550.24 $687.80 63
P/S Multiple $175.36 $233.82 $292.27 58
P/B Multiple $126.34 $168.45 $210.56 55
EV/EBIT $466.03 $611.64 $757.24 66
EV/EBITDA $373.33 $488.04 $602.74 67
EV/Revenue $192.90 $263.04 $333.19 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $28.08 $37.62 $56.15 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $435.91 $764.29 $1,319 73
Rev-Margin DCF $274.05 $432.34 $647.84 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income $157.27 $243.03 $579.68 65
ROIC Compounder $276.88 $333.84 $395.34 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $402.69 $575.27 $747.85 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 82/100

Of which business quality 79 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 81
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 85
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 42
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 33
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 84
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 96
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 35%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+23.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +31.4% a year for the price and +20.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+31.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+25.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+22.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+19.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+16.6%

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ASML Holding · Fair Value
$1,163 −38%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ASML Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0M42

Frequently asked questions

Is ASML Holding (0M42) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1,163 versus a price of $1,864, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0M42?
Our model-based fair value for ASML Holding is $1,163 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1,864.
What is the quality score of 0M42?
ASML Holding has a Quality Score of 82/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ASML Holding (0M42)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1,163 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $745.96, optimistic scenario $1,892. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ASML Holding stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1,163, about −38% upside versus a price of $1,864 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $745.96, optimistic scenario $1,892. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ASML Holding (0M42)?
ASML Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €35.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does ASML Holding pay a dividend?
ASML Holding currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into ASML Holding (0M42)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ASML Holding would have to grow free cash flow by +34.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +15.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0M42 use?
Our models discount ASML Holding at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 1.39, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ASML Holding that is +34.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ASML Holding (0M42) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at ASML Holding grew +15.1 % a year. The price currently implies +34.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of ASML Holding (0M42)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.73 %: that much free cash flow ASML Holding produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ASML Holding (0M42)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ASML Holding it is $1,163 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1,864. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ASML Holding stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0M42 trades above its calculated fair value: price $1,864, fair value $1,163, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0M42?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1,864); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1,163). For ASML Holding the two are $700.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ASML Holding worth?
The market values ASML Holding at about $718B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1,864; our models calculate a fair value of $1,163 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0M42?
Our models span a range for ASML Holding: cautious scenario $745.96, base $1,163, optimistic $1,892 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1,864). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0M42 from its 52-week high?
ASML Holding trades at $1,864, about 6% below its 52-week high of $1,978 and 98% above the low of $943.47 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1,163 is for.
Is ASML Holding stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1,864, calculated fair value $1,163 (−38%), Quality Score 82/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0M42 calculated?
We run ASML Holding through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1,163, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ASML Holding itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ASML Holding (0M42)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1,864. Our model-based fair value is $1,163, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ASML Holding right now?
A high-quality business (quality 82/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range ($745.96 to $1,892) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of ASML Holding

How large is the market capitalisation of ASML Holding (0M42)?
The market capitalisation of ASML Holding is $718B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of ASML Holding (0M42)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of ASML Holding is 0.7 (as of Jul 26, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of ASML Holding (0M42)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ASML Holding is 0.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ASML Holding (0M42)?
Earnings per share at ASML Holding are $25.33 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ASML Holding (0M42)?
The dividend yield of ASML Holding is 0.2% (payout 17.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ASML Holding (0M42)?
The net margin of ASML Holding is 29.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ASML Holding (0M42)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ASML Holding is 53.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ASML Holding (0M42)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ASML Holding is 20.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ASML Holding (0M42)?
The operating margin of ASML Holding is 37.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ASML Holding (0M42)?
Revenue at ASML Holding is growing +21.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ASML Holding (0M42)?
Earnings per share at ASML Holding are growing +28.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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