EN DE
Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors
Data-driven stock valuation

Ford Motor Company (0P4F) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ford Motor Company $14.82, price $12.05, upside +23.0%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

GB · ISIN US3453708600

FM Some data Sep 24, 2026

Ford Motor Company

0P4F · LSE

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $14.82 · Undervalued (+23.0%)
!Quality 37/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -3.2% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓5.0% dividend yield · Well covered
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$21.29 $8.32 Fair Value $14.82 May 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $8.32 – $21.29 · fair‑value band $6.25 – $23.83 · the $12.05 price screens below the $14.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit segments.

Show more

Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and internationally. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit segments. The company sells Ford and Lincoln internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, service parts, accessories, and digital services for retail customers; develops EV and digital vehicle technologies, and software; and provides telematics and EV charging solutions. It also sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. In addition, it engages in vehicle-related financing and leasing activities to and through automotive dealers. Further, the company provides retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, such as leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers. Additionally, it offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs. Ford Motor Company was incorporated in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

Stock analysis

Ford Motor Company (0P4F) currently trades at $12.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.82, implying the stock looks roughly 18.7% undervalued today.

Show more

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $24.61 per share, and 7 of the 11 models we run sit above the $12.05 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.17, and 4 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $6.25 (bear) to $23.83 (bull), the price of $12.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality).

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Ford Motor Company reported revenue of $187B in FY2025 versus $136B in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.2B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $48.1B · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) $1.25 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin −4.4% · Return on equity −14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% · Operating margin 5.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

Fair Value models

Bear $6.25 Fair Value $14.82 Bull $23.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4915 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $14.47 $30.18 $52.02 77
Growth DCF $15.28 $29.61 $48.56 76
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $5.65 $12.89 72
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $14.47 $30.18 $52.02 77
5Y Revenue Exit $9.25 $24.21 $42.63 69
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $5.65 $12.89 72
10Y Revenue Exit $10.12 $23.74 $40.68 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $4.60 $11.40 $19.26 65
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $6.72 $12.43 $19.91 66
DDM Multi-Stage $6.72 $10.05 $13.51 66
Multiples
EV/Revenue $7.88 $20.33 $32.78 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.60 $6.17 $9.21 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $15.28 $29.61 $48.56 76
Rev-Margin DCF $9.25 $24.61 $41.45 69

Open the full fair value analysis →

Notify me when 0P4F reaches fair value

Put 0P4F on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.

Set up alert →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 18
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 10
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 23
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.5% (2020) → −4.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.9% a year for the price and −2.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−6.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.6%

Watch 0P4F, get fair value alerts →

Compare Ford Motor Company with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Explore undervalued stocks

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names ⭐ Top Rated 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector Compare toolTwo stocks side by side Extrinsic Value Calculator…Calculator with industry benchmark Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Calculator with industry benchmark
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorFama-French ModelIntrinsic Value
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Ford Motor Company · Fair Value
$14.82 +19%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ford Motor Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0P4F

Frequently asked questions

Is Ford Motor Company (0P4F) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.82 versus a price of $12.05, about +23% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0P4F?
Our model-based fair value for Ford Motor Company is $14.82 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.05.
What is the quality score of 0P4F?
Ford Motor Company has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ford Motor Company (0P4F)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.82 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.25, optimistic scenario $23.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ford Motor Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.82, about +23% upside versus a price of $12.05 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.25, optimistic scenario $23.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ford Motor Company (0P4F)?
Ford Motor Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $190B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ford Motor Company pay a dividend?
Ford Motor Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.98% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ford Motor Company (0P4F)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ford Motor Company would have to grow free cash flow by +7.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0P4F use?
Our models discount Ford Motor Company at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 1.83, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ford Motor Company that is +7.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ford Motor Company (0P4F) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ford Motor Company grew +8.1 % a year. The price currently implies +7.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ford Motor Company (0P4F)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.94 %: that much free cash flow Ford Motor Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ford Motor Company (0P4F)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ford Motor Company it is $14.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $12.05. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ford Motor Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0P4F trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.05, fair value $14.82, a gap of about +23% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0P4F?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.82). For Ford Motor Company the two are $2.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ford Motor Company worth?
The market values Ford Motor Company at about $48.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $12.05; our models calculate a fair value of $14.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0P4F?
Our models span a range for Ford Motor Company: cautious scenario $6.25, base $14.82, optimistic $23.83 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $12.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0P4F from its 52-week high?
Ford Motor Company trades at $12.05, about 32% below its 52-week high of $17.61 and 8% above the low of $11.20 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.82 is for.
Is Ford Motor Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $12.05, calculated fair value $14.82 (+23%), Quality Score 37/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0P4F calculated?
We run Ford Motor Company through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ford Motor Company currently trades 19 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ford Motor Company (0P4F)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $12.05. Our model-based fair value is $14.82, about +23% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ford Motor Company right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($6.25 to $23.83). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Ford Motor Company

How large is the market capitalisation of Ford Motor Company (0P4F)?
The market capitalisation of Ford Motor Company is $48.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Ford Motor Company (0P4F)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Ford Motor Company is 0.1 (as of Jul 28, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What are the earnings per share of Ford Motor Company (0P4F)?
Earnings per share at Ford Motor Company are $1.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ford Motor Company (0P4F)?
The dividend yield of Ford Motor Company is 5.0% (payout 48.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ford Motor Company (0P4F)?
The net margin of Ford Motor Company is −4.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ford Motor Company (0P4F)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ford Motor Company is −14.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ford Motor Company (0P4F)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ford Motor Company is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ford Motor Company (0P4F)?
The operating margin of Ford Motor Company is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ford Motor Company (0P4F)?
Revenue at Ford Motor Company is growing +6.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ford Motor Company (0P4F)?
Earnings per share at Ford Motor Company are growing +431% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ford Motor Company (0P4F) carry?
The net debt of Ford Motor Company is $140B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed

Continue in the live analysis

Fair value and trend for 35,000+ stocks, watchlist, comparison and the diversification check. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.

Open the live analysis →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.