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Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Enphase Energy, Inc $22.75, price $33.47, upside -32.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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EE
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Enphase Energy, Inc
0QYE · LSEOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $22.75 · Overvalued (−32.0%)
✓Quality 63/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +13.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.6% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 32/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range $28.87 – $71.58 · fair‑value band $16.14 – $34.02 · the $33.47 price screens above the $22.75 fair value. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Enphase Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells home energy solutions for the solar photovoltaic industry in the United States and internationally.
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Enphase Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells home energy solutions for the solar photovoltaic industry in the United States and internationally. The company offers semiconductor-based microinverter that converts energy at the individual solar module level and combines with its proprietary networking and software technologies to provide energy monitoring and control. It also provides microinverter units and related accessories; IQ Battery and related accessories; IQ PowerPack 1500 and related accessories; IQ Combiner, IQ Gateway, and IQ Energy Router; cloud-based monitoring service; and electric vehicle charging solutions, as well as design, proposal, permitting, installation and solar appointment generation services, and Enphase Care services. The company sells its solutions to solar distributors; and directly to large installers, original equipment manufacturers, strategic partners, and homeowners, as well as through its legacy product upgrade program or online store. Enphase Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.
Stock analysis
Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE) currently trades at $33.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.75, 32.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $46.17 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the $33.47 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.85, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $16.14 (bear) to $34.02 (bull), the price of $33.47 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality).
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Enphase Energy, Inc reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +1.6%/yr. Reported net income was $172M in FY2025, compounding +4.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.5B · P/E ratio 0.3 · P/S ratio 0.04 · EPS (TTM) $1.17 · Net margin 11.7% · Return on equity 14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2% · Operating margin −9.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
Fair Value models
Bear $16.14
Fair Value $22.75
Bull $34.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8877 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$18.98
$27.38
$52.43
73
Growth DCF
$18.17
$29.59
$51.42
71
EPV
$15.74
$17.53
$19.06
70
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$18.98
$27.38
$52.43
73
Owner Earnings
$34.59
$71.24
$145.34
66
5Y Revenue Exit
$19.27
$32.01
$57.50
65
5Y EBITDA Exit
$24.49
$43.05
$77.86
67
5Y P/E Exit
$25.76
$51.81
$86.31
63
10Y Revenue Exit
$18.56
$35.34
$52.14
61
10Y EBITDA Exit
$22.77
$45.45
$88.86
60
10Y P/E Exit
$23.65
$47.89
$91.64
56
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$11.01
$76.77
$107.74
61
Lynch FV
$24.74
$35.34
$45.94
59
PEG = 1.0
$24.74
$35.34
$45.94
55
EPV
$15.74
$17.53
$19.06
70
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$24.28
$32.38
$40.47
63
P/S Multiple
$20.64
$27.52
$34.40
58
P/B Multiple
$20.64
$27.52
$34.40
55
EV/EBIT
$25.37
$32.34
$39.30
63
EV/EBITDA
$26.95
$34.45
$41.95
64
EV/Revenue
$18.55
$24.59
$30.63
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$5.11
$6.85
$10.22
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$18.17
$29.59
$51.42
71
Rev-Margin DCF
$19.27
$34.93
$58.97
65
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$10.35
$13.69
$21.50
66
ROIC Compounder
$18.62
$25.14
$32.59
68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$32.32
$46.17
$60.02
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
63/100
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Profitability
43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
65
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
39
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
7
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
30
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.2% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+49.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 11%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.7% a year for the price and −1.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−18.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+7.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+6.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.8%
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None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.75 versus a price of $33.47, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0QYE?
Our model-based fair value for Enphase Energy, Inc is $22.75 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $33.47.
What is the quality score of 0QYE?
Enphase Energy, Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.75 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.14, optimistic scenario $34.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Enphase Energy, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.75, about −32% upside versus a price of $33.47 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $16.14, optimistic scenario $34.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE)?
Enphase Energy, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Enphase Energy, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +23.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0QYE use?
Our models discount Enphase Energy, Inc at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 1.62, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Enphase Energy, Inc that is +23.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Enphase Energy, Inc grew +13.7 % a year. The price currently implies +23.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.12 %: that much free cash flow Enphase Energy, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Enphase Energy, Inc it is $22.75 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $33.47. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Enphase Energy, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0QYE trades above its calculated fair value: price $33.47, fair value $22.75, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QYE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($33.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.75). For Enphase Energy, Inc the two are $10.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Enphase Energy, Inc worth?
The market values Enphase Energy, Inc at about $4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $33.47; our models calculate a fair value of $22.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QYE?
Our models span a range for Enphase Energy, Inc: cautious scenario $16.14, base $22.75, optimistic $34.02 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $33.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Is Enphase Energy, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $33.47, calculated fair value $22.75 (−32%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QYE calculated?
We run Enphase Energy, Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Enphase Energy, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $33.47. Our model-based fair value is $22.75, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Enphase Energy, Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($16.14 to $34.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Enphase Energy, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE)?
The market capitalisation of Enphase Energy, Inc is $4.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Enphase Energy, Inc is 0.3 (as of Jul 30, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Enphase Energy, Inc is 0.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE)?
Earnings per share at Enphase Energy, Inc are $1.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE)?
The net margin of Enphase Energy, Inc is 11.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Enphase Energy, Inc is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Enphase Energy, Inc is 9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE)?
The operating margin of Enphase Energy, Inc is −9.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE)?
Revenue at Enphase Energy, Inc is growing −20.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE)?
Earnings per share at Enphase Energy, Inc are growing −36.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Enphase Energy, Inc (0QYE) carry?
The net debt of Enphase Energy, Inc is $769M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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