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Eni S.p.A (0TD2) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Aug 3, 2026: fair value of Eni S.p.A $38.95, price $38.56, upside +1.0%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Eni S.p.A
0TD2 · LSENeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $38.95 · Fairly valued (+1.0%)
!Quality 53/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −14.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.4% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 39/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.83 – $38.56 · fair‑value band $29.21 – $48.68 · the $38.56 price screens below the $38.95 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Eni S.p.A. operates as an integrated energy company in Italy, Other European Union, Rest of Europe, the United States, Asia, Africa, and internationally.
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Eni S.p.A. operates as an integrated energy company in Italy, Other European Union, Rest of Europe, the United States, Asia, Africa, and internationally. The company engages in exploration, development, extracting, manufacturing, trading, and marketing crude oil and natural gas, oil-based fuels, chemical products, and gas-fired power, as well as energy products from renewable sources. The company operates through Exploration & Production; Global Gas & LNG Portfolio and Power; Refining and Chemicals; Enilive; Plenitude; and Corporate and Other Activities segments. The company engages in research, development, and production of oil, condensates, and natural gas. It is also involved in the supply and sale of wholesale natural gas through pipelines; electricity; and international transport, and purchase and marketing of liquefied natural gas. In addition, the company supplies bio-feedstock and crude oil; and stores, produces, distributes, and markets biofuels, oil products, biomethane, basic chemical and petrochemical products, intermediates, plastics and elastomers, and other chemicals, as well as provides smart mobility solutions and services. Further, the company engages in the retail marketing of gas, power, and related services; production and wholesale sale of electricity from renewable plants; and building and managing a network of charging points for electric vehicles. Eni S.p.A. was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy.
Stock analysis
Eni S.p.A (0TD2) currently trades at $38.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.95, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $57.52 per share, and 12 of the 22 models we run sit above the $38.56 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $16.01, and 10 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $29.21 (bear) to $48.68 (bull), the price of $38.56 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality).
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Eni S.p.A reported revenue of €82.2B in FY2025 versus €76.6B in FY2021, a compound +1.8%/yr. Reported net income was €2.6B in FY2025, compounding −18.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $114B · P/E ratio 0.2 · EPS (TTM) $1.76 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 10.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0% · Operating margin 10.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
Fair Value models
Bear $29.21
Fair Value $38.95
Bull $48.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9301 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$63.30
$89.72
$137.11
77
Growth DCF
$66.36
$91.81
$133.95
75
Owner Earnings
$40.23
$58.20
$90.46
73
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$63.30
$89.72
$137.11
77
Owner Earnings
$40.23
$58.20
$90.46
73
5Y Revenue Exit
$36.61
$50.78
$71.25
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
$63.83
$97.90
$143.03
72
5Y P/E Exit
$34.78
$47.62
$63.16
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$46.16
$57.52
$69.05
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$63.08
$85.99
$110.23
67
10Y P/E Exit
$45.84
$55.61
$64.41
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$13.10
$16.01
$18.01
65
EPV
$15.01
$18.78
$22.04
71
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$28.90
$38.53
$48.16
63
P/S Multiple
$24.56
$32.75
$40.93
58
P/B Multiple
$24.56
$32.75
$40.93
55
EV/EBIT
$36.04
$51.02
$65.99
65
EV/EBITDA
$76.48
$104.94
$133.40
67
EV/Revenue
$21.39
$34.37
$47.35
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$17.70
$23.72
$35.41
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$66.36
$91.81
$133.95
75
Rev-Margin DCF
$36.61
$52.53
$72.75
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$27.50
$28.36
$30.09
73
ROIC Compounder
$15.01
$18.78
$22.04
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$20.44
$29.20
$37.96
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
53/100
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Profitability
26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
35
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
57
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
88
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.7%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−10.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 6%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.2% a year for the price and −5.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+21.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−11.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)−9.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)−8.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)−6.4%
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- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
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- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
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None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is Eni S.p.A (0TD2) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.95 versus the last price from Aug 3, 2026 of $38.56, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0TD2?
Our model-based fair value for Eni S.p.A is $38.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 3, 2026): $38.56.
What is the quality score of 0TD2?
Eni S.p.A has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Eni S.p.A (0TD2)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $38.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $29.21, optimistic scenario $48.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Eni S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $38.95, about +1% upside versus the last price from Aug 3, 2026 of $38.56 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $29.21, optimistic scenario $48.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Eni S.p.A (0TD2)?
Eni S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €89.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Eni S.p.A pay a dividend?
Eni S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Eni S.p.A (0TD2)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Eni S.p.A would have to grow free cash flow by +14.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +1.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0TD2 use?
Our models discount Eni S.p.A at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Eni S.p.A that is +14.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Eni S.p.A (0TD2) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Eni S.p.A grew +1.8 % a year. The price currently implies +14.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Eni S.p.A (0TD2)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.05 %: that much free cash flow Eni S.p.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Eni S.p.A (0TD2)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Eni S.p.A it is $38.95 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $38.56. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Eni S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0TD2 trades below its calculated fair value: price $38.56, fair value $38.95, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0TD2?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($38.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($38.95). For Eni S.p.A the two are $0.3886 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Eni S.p.A worth?
The market values Eni S.p.A at about $114B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $38.56; our models calculate a fair value of $38.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0TD2?
Our models span a range for Eni S.p.A: cautious scenario $29.21, base $38.95, optimistic $48.68 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $38.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0TD2 from its 52-week high?
Eni S.p.A trades at $38.56, at its 52-week high of $38.56 and 39% above the low of $27.81 (as of Aug 3, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $38.95 is for.
Is Eni S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $38.56, calculated fair value $38.95 (+1%), Quality Score 53/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0TD2 calculated?
We run Eni S.p.A through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $38.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Eni S.p.A currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Eni S.p.A (0TD2)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 3, 2026 and stands at $38.56. Our model-based fair value is $38.95, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Eni S.p.A right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Eni S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Eni S.p.A (0TD2)?
The market capitalisation of Eni S.p.A is $114B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Eni S.p.A (0TD2)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Eni S.p.A is 0.2 (as of Aug 5, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What are the earnings per share of Eni S.p.A (0TD2)?
Earnings per share at Eni S.p.A are $1.76 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Eni S.p.A (0TD2)?
The dividend yield of Eni S.p.A is 1.4% (payout 30.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Eni S.p.A (0TD2)?
The net margin of Eni S.p.A is 3.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Eni S.p.A (0TD2)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Eni S.p.A is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Eni S.p.A (0TD2)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Eni S.p.A is 7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Eni S.p.A (0TD2)?
The operating margin of Eni S.p.A is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Eni S.p.A (0TD2)?
Revenue at Eni S.p.A is growing +18.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Eni S.p.A (0TD2)?
Earnings per share at Eni S.p.A are growing +581% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Eni S.p.A (0TD2) carry?
The net debt of Eni S.p.A is €19.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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