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China Railway Construction-H (1186) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Railway Construction-H HK$13.07, price HK$4.36, upside +200.0%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · HK · Home China · ISIN CNE100000981

CR Thin data Oct 1, 2026

China Railway Construction-H

1186 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$13.07 · Strongly undervalued (+200.0%)
!Quality 36/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +2.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.7% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!6.9% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Narrow moat 23/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 17 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$6.17 HK$2.90 Fair Value HK$13.07 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.90 – HK$6.17 · fair‑value band HK$11.17 – HK$15.77 · the HK$4.36 price screens below the HK$13.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.

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Company profile

China Railway Construction Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction business in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through five segments: Construction Operations; Planning, Design and Consultancy Operations; Manufacturing operations; Real Estate Development Operations; and Other Business Operations.

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China Railway Construction Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the construction business in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through five segments: Construction Operations; Planning, Design and Consultancy Operations; Manufacturing operations; Real Estate Development Operations; and Other Business Operations. The Construction Operations segment engages in the construction of infrastructure, such as railways, highways, rail transits, water conservancy and hydropower, housing construction, municipal engineering, bridges, tunnels, airports, and wharves. The Plan, Design and Consultancy Operations segment provides planning, design, and consultancy services for civil engineering and infrastructure construction projects, such as railways, highways, urban rail transport, etc. The Manufacturing Operations segment is involved in the research and development, production, and sale of mechanical equipment comprising railway track maintenance and tunnel boring machinery, as well as manufacturing of track systems, etc. The Real Estate Development Operations segment engages in the development, construction, and sale of residential and commercial properties. The Other Business Operations segment includes trade and logistics, finance and insurance, and highway operation activities. In addition, it is involved in the purchase and sales of goods and materials; and offers project investment and financial services. The company was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China Railway Construction Corporation Limited is a subsidiary of China Railway Construction Corporation Group.

Stock analysis

China Railway Construction-H (1186) currently trades at HK$4.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$13.07, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$33.18 per share, and 14 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$4.36 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$12.84, and 0 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$11.17 (bear) to HK$15.77 (bull), the price of HK$4.36 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

China Railway Construction-H reported revenue of 1.0T CNY in FY2025 versus 1.0T CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was 18.4B CNY in FY2025, compounding −7.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$59.1B (≈ $7.5B) · P/E ratio 3.6 · P/S ratio 0.06 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.08 · Dividend yield 6.9% · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 200%, 1186 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$11.17 Fair Value HK$13.07 Bull HK$15.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.5832 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV HK$16.71 HK$21.83 HK$26.25 74
Residual Income HK$22.36 HK$22.63 HK$24.08 74
ROIC Compounder HK$16.71 HK$21.83 HK$26.25 70
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$10.74 HK$38.25 HK$51.51 62
Lynch FV HK$8.99 HK$12.84 HK$16.70 59
PEG = 1.0 HK$8.99 HK$12.84 HK$16.70 55
EPV HK$16.71 HK$21.83 HK$26.25 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$24.88 HK$33.18 HK$41.47 63
P/S Multiple HK$20.14 HK$26.86 HK$33.57 58
P/B Multiple HK$20.14 HK$26.86 HK$33.57 55
EV/EBIT HK$35.53 HK$52.62 HK$69.72 65
EV/EBITDA HK$46.57 HK$67.34 HK$88.12 67
EV/Revenue HK$20.85 HK$36.53 HK$52.22 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$14.64 HK$19.62 HK$29.28 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$22.36 HK$22.63 HK$24.08 74
ROIC Compounder HK$16.71 HK$21.83 HK$26.25 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$17.27 HK$24.68 HK$32.08 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 4
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 19
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 99
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 15
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 25/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.5% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.9% vs 1.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 803 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4.3% · Below median
Return on assets 1.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −15.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.10× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.15× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.05× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.0× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.35× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 13
PAST (return on equity)17 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)45 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 40

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Quanta Services, Inc PWR $649.13 $162.77 −75%
Vinci SA DG €111.30 €186.22 +67%
Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX $1,658 $1,116 −33%
Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹3,876 ₹1,994 −49%
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 367,000 KRW 159,718 KRW −56%
Ferrovial N.V FER $55.77 $21.74 −61%
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT €397.20 €203.86 −49%
EMCOR Group EME $762.21 $525.05 −31%
ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A ACS €93.60 €62.20 −34%
Bouygues SA EN €43.14 €66.31 +54%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Railway Construction-H Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1186

Frequently asked questions

Is China Railway Construction-H (1186) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$13.07 versus a price of HK$4.36, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1186?
Our model-based fair value for China Railway Construction-H is HK$13.07 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$4.36.
What is the quality score of 1186?
China Railway Construction-H has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Railway Construction-H (1186)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$13.07 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$11.17, optimistic scenario HK$15.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Railway Construction-H stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$13.07, about +200% upside versus a price of HK$4.36 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$11.17, optimistic scenario HK$15.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Railway Construction-H (1186)?
China Railway Construction-H reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 969B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does China Railway Construction-H pay a dividend?
China Railway Construction-H currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.89% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Railway Construction-H (1186)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Railway Construction-H it is HK$13.07 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of HK$4.36. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Railway Construction-H stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 1186 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$4.36, fair value HK$13.07, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1186?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$4.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$13.07). For China Railway Construction-H the two are HK$8.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Railway Construction-H worth?
The market values China Railway Construction-H at about HK$59.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$4.36; our models calculate a fair value of HK$13.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1186?
Our models span a range for China Railway Construction-H: cautious scenario HK$11.17, base HK$13.07, optimistic HK$15.77 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price HK$4.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1186?
China Railway Construction-H trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.6 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$13.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 0.2, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 4.0.
What is the PEG ratio of 1186?
The PEG ratio of China Railway Construction-H is 1.35 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Railway Construction-H (1186)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Railway Construction-H (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 1.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1186 from its 52-week high?
China Railway Construction-H trades at HK$4.36, about 18% below its 52-week high of HK$5.29 and 2% above the low of HK$4.25 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$13.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Railway Construction-H?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Railway Construction-H stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price HK$4.36, calculated fair value HK$13.07 (+200%), Quality Score 36/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1186 calculated?
We run China Railway Construction-H through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$13.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. China Railway Construction-H currently trades 67 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Railway Construction-H (1186)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$4.36. Our model-based fair value is HK$13.07, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Railway Construction-H right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$11.17). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of China Railway Construction-H (1186) come from?
Earnings per share at China Railway Construction-H grew +5.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.5 %, EBIT margin +3.4 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Railway Construction-H

How large is the market capitalisation of China Railway Construction-H (1186)?
The market capitalisation of China Railway Construction-H is HK$59.1B (≈ $7.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Railway Construction-H (1186)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Railway Construction-H is 0.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Railway Construction-H (1186)?
Earnings per share at China Railway Construction-H are HK$1.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Railway Construction-H (1186)?
The dividend yield of China Railway Construction-H is 6.9% (payout 27.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Railway Construction-H (1186)?
The net margin of China Railway Construction-H is 1.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Railway Construction-H (1186)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Railway Construction-H is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Railway Construction-H (1186)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Railway Construction-H is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Railway Construction-H (1186)?
The operating margin of China Railway Construction-H is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Railway Construction-H (1186)?
Revenue at China Railway Construction-H is growing −15.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Railway Construction-H (1186)?
Earnings per share at China Railway Construction-H are growing −26.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Railway Construction-H (1186) generate?
The free cash flow of China Railway Construction-H is −44.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Railway Construction-H (1186) carry?
The net debt of China Railway Construction-H is 358B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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