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Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Hidili Industry International Development Limited is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 13, 2026
Hidili Industry International Development Limited
1393 · HKSpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value HK$0.0409 · Undervalued (+41%)
!Quality 29/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +7.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -32.1% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 7/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0210 – HK$0.6100 · fair‑value band HK$0.0351 – HK$0.0409 · the HK$0.0290 price screens below the HK$0.0409 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
Hidili Industry International Development Limited, an investment holding company engages in the production and sales of clean coal and its by-products in the People's Republic of China. The company offers high-ash thermal coal and other products.
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Hidili Industry International Development Limited, an investment holding company engages in the production and sales of clean coal and its by-products in the People's Republic of China. The company offers high-ash thermal coal and other products. It is also involved in the coal mining and development; mine holding and development; and provision of clean coal washing services. Hidili Industry International Development Limited was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Panzhihua, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393) currently trades at HK$0.0290, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0409, implying the stock looks roughly 29.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 10 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0351 (bear) to HK$0.0409 (bull), the price of HK$0.0290 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Hidili Industry International Development Limited reported revenue of 1.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound −9.1%/yr. Reported net income was −623M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$184M (≈ $23.5M) · P/S ratio 0.09 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0500 · Net margin −32.1% · Return on equity −77.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% · Operating margin −16.5% · Revenue (TTM) HK$1.9B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at 41%, 1393 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0351
Fair Value HK$0.0409
Bull HK$0.0409
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
n/a
HK$0.0100
69
NCAV (Graham)
HK$0.0500
HK$0.0700
HK$0.1000
54
All 2 models by family
DCF Models
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
n/a
HK$0.0100
69
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
HK$0.0500
HK$0.0700
HK$0.1000
54
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
29/100
Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Profitability
1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
25
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
0
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
1
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
40
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−23.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
28.9% (2020) → −13.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+58.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 100 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: Hong Kong Stocks
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Coal
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥47.51 | ¥32.14 | −32% |
| PT Bayan Resources Tbk., BYAN | 12,350 IDR | 4,727 IDR | −62% |
| Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT | ₹3,060 | ₹891.11 | −71% |
| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥26.05 | ¥28.66 | +10% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥21.38 | ¥9.98 | −53% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹426.40 | ₹464.01 | +9% |
| 533278 533278 | ₹425.60 | ₹541.91 | +27% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥14.73 | ¥13.91 | −6% |
| PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, DSSA | 1,100 IDR | 350.96 IDR | −68% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥27.28 | ¥20.13 | −26% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0409 versus a price of HK$0.0290, about +41% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1393?
Our model-based fair value for Hidili Industry International Development Limited is HK$0.0409 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0290.
What is the quality score of 1393?
Hidili Industry International Development Limited has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0409 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0351, optimistic scenario HK$0.0409. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hidili Industry International Development Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0409, about +41% upside versus a price of HK$0.0290 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0351, optimistic scenario HK$0.0409. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393)?
Hidili Industry International Development Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hidili Industry International Development Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +58.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.5 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1393 use?
Our models discount Hidili Industry International Development Limited at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.05, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hidili Industry International Development Limited that is +58.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hidili Industry International Development Limited grew +7.5 % a year. The price currently implies +58.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hidili Industry International Development Limited (+58.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 33.34 %: that much free cash flow Hidili Industry International Development Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hidili Industry International Development Limited it is HK$0.0409 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0290. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hidili Industry International Development Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 1393 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0290, fair value HK$0.0409, a gap of about +41% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1393?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0290); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0409). For Hidili Industry International Development Limited the two are HK$0.0119 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hidili Industry International Development Limited worth?
The market values Hidili Industry International Development Limited at about HK$184M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0290; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0409 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1393?
Our models span a range for Hidili Industry International Development Limited: cautious scenario HK$0.0351, base HK$0.0409, optimistic HK$0.0409 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$0.0290). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 1393?
The PEG ratio of Hidili Industry International Development Limited is 0.30 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hidili Industry International Development Limited (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −77.9%, debt of 2.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1393 from its 52-week high?
Hidili Industry International Development Limited trades at HK$0.0290, about 67% below its 52-week high of HK$0.0880 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0409 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hidili Industry International Development Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, PT Bayan Resources Tbk.,, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hidili Industry International Development Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$0.0290, calculated fair value HK$0.0409 (+41%), Quality Score 29/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1393 calculated?
We run Hidili Industry International Development Limited through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.0409, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Hidili Industry International Development Limited currently trades 41 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Hidili Industry International Development Limited right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (29/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.0351). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Hidili Industry International Development Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393)?
The market capitalisation of Hidili Industry International Development Limited is HK$184M (≈ $23.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hidili Industry International Development Limited is 0.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393)?
Earnings per share at Hidili Industry International Development Limited are HK$−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393)?
The net margin of Hidili Industry International Development Limited is −32.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hidili Industry International Development Limited is −77.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hidili Industry International Development Limited is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393)?
The operating margin of Hidili Industry International Development Limited is −16.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393)?
Revenue at Hidili Industry International Development Limited is growing −25.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −23.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393)?
Earnings per share at Hidili Industry International Development Limited are growing −76.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hidili Industry International Development Limited (1393) carry?
The net debt of Hidili Industry International Development Limited is HK$7.2B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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