Al Hokair Group (1820) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Al Hokair Group SAR 2.39, price SAR 1.83, upside +30.6%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Al Hokair Group for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.66 SAR – 5.82 SAR · fair‑value band 2.09 SAR – 2.67 SAR · the 1.83 SAR price screens below the 2.39 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
Follow Al Hokair in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Al Hokair is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
BAAN Holding Group Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides hospitality and entertainment services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. It operates through three segments: Hotel, Entertainment, and Others.
Show more
BAAN Holding Group Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides hospitality and entertainment services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. It operates through three segments: Hotel, Entertainment, and Others. The company engages in the establishment, management, operation, and maintenance of hotels, tourists and health resorts, furnished apartments, restaurants, and cafes; fun cities, entertainment and recreation centers, parks, and gardens; and commercial centers. It is also involved in the operation and management of electrical and children amusement games halls, as well as sport facilities projects. The company was formerly known as Abdulmohsen Al-Hokair Group and changed its name to BAAN Holding Group Company in November 2024. BAAN Holding Group Company was incorporated in 1978 and is based in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Al Hokair Group (1820) currently trades at 1.83 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.39 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 23.4% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 2.41 SAR per share, and 7 of the 9 models we run sit above the 1.83 SAR price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 0.7700 SAR, and 2 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2.09 SAR (bear) to 2.67 SAR (bull), the price of 1.83 SAR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Al Hokair Group reported revenue of 649M SAR in FY2025 versus 708M SAR in FY2021, a compound −2.2%/yr. Reported net income was −202M SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1B SAR (≈ $302M) · P/S ratio 1.84 · EPS (TTM) −0.4600 SAR · Net margin −31.1% · Return on equity −24.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.2% · Operating margin 6.3% · Revenue (TTM) 615M SAR.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at 31%, 1820 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2.09 SARFair Value 2.39 SARBull 2.67 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−26.0% (2020) → −19.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−13.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 159 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside+30.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−21.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)6.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−14.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity75.73× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Al Hokair Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1820
Frequently asked questions
Is Al Hokair Group (1820) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.39 SAR versus a price of 1.83 SAR, about +31% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1820?
Our model-based fair value for Al Hokair Group is 2.39 SAR (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1.83 SAR.
What is the quality score of 1820?
Al Hokair Group has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Al Hokair Group (1820)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2.39 SAR (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.09 SAR, optimistic scenario 2.67 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Al Hokair Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2.39 SAR, about +31% upside versus a price of 1.83 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 2.09 SAR, optimistic scenario 2.67 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Al Hokair Group (1820)?
Al Hokair Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 615M SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Al Hokair Group (1820)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Al Hokair Group would have to grow free cash flow by -13.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.2 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1820 use?
Our models discount Al Hokair Group at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Al Hokair Group that is -13.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Al Hokair Group (1820) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Al Hokair Group grew +1.2 % a year. The price currently implies -13.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Al Hokair Group (1820) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Al Hokair Group (-13.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Al Hokair Group (1820)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 32.13 %: that much free cash flow Al Hokair Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Al Hokair Group (1820)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Al Hokair Group it is 2.39 SAR per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of 1.83 SAR. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Al Hokair Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 1820 trades below its calculated fair value: price 1.83 SAR, fair value 2.39 SAR, a gap of about +31% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1820?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1.83 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2.39 SAR). For Al Hokair Group the two are 0.5600 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Al Hokair Group worth?
The market values Al Hokair Group at about 1.1B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is 1.83 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 2.39 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1820?
Our models span a range for Al Hokair Group: cautious scenario 2.09 SAR, base 2.39 SAR, optimistic 2.67 SAR per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price 1.83 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Al Hokair Group (1820)?
Balance-sheet figures for Al Hokair Group (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity −24.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1820 from its 52-week high?
Al Hokair Group trades at 1.83 SAR, about 21% below its 52-week high of 2.32 SAR and 10% above the low of 1.66 SAR (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2.39 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Al Hokair Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Al Hokair Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price 1.83 SAR, calculated fair value 2.39 SAR (+31%), Quality Score 45/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1820 calculated?
We run Al Hokair Group through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2.39 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Al Hokair Group currently trades 23 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Al Hokair Group (1820)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was 1.83 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 2.39 SAR, about +31% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Al Hokair Group right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (2.09 SAR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Al Hokair Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Al Hokair Group (1820)?
The market capitalisation of Al Hokair Group is 1.1B SAR (≈ $302M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Al Hokair Group (1820)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Al Hokair Group is 1.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Al Hokair Group (1820)?
Earnings per share at Al Hokair Group are −0.4600 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Al Hokair Group (1820)?
The net margin of Al Hokair Group is −31.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Al Hokair Group (1820)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Al Hokair Group is −24.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Al Hokair Group (1820)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Al Hokair Group is −2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Al Hokair Group (1820)?
The operating margin of Al Hokair Group is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Al Hokair Group (1820)?
Revenue at Al Hokair Group is growing −14.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Al Hokair Group (1820)?
Earnings per share at Al Hokair Group are growing +15.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Al Hokair Group (1820) carry?
The net debt of Al Hokair Group is 356M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Al Hokair Group in the live analysis
One click puts Al Hokair Group on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
