Smurfit Kappa Group (SMFTF) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $24.7B

Below-average quality, and screening another 18% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• Our model range runs from $27.29 (bear) to $45.49 (bull), base $36.39. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
• Quality 33/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $17.65 – $56.64 · fair‑value band $27.29 – $45.49 · the $44.30 price screens above the $36.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Smurfit Kappa Group (SMFTF) currently trades at $44.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.39, implying the stock looks roughly 17.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Smurfit Kappa Group generated revenue of $11.3B at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue declined 15.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.3%. Net debt stands at $12.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $27.29 (bear case) to $45.49 (bull case); at $44.30, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -18%, SMFTF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($34.43) versus Earnings-Based ($15.34). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Smurfit Kappa Group Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in Ireland, Germany, France, Mexico, rest of Europe, and other Americas.

Full company description

Smurfit Kappa Group Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in Ireland, Germany, France, Mexico, rest of Europe, and other Americas. The company offers e-commerce, retail, consumer, industrial, bottle, protective, heavy-duty, hexacomb, and various punnet packaging products; composite cardboard tubes, bags, and sacks; and bag-in-box, a packaging system that comprises films, accessories, bags, taps, and boxes. It also provides point of sale displays; cardboards of social distancing; corrugated sheet boards, solid board sheets, folding carton sheet boards, sack Kraft papers, MG brown Kraft papers, preprint products, agro-papers, technical papers, BanaBag, and Catcher Board MB12; and various types of containerboards, such as kraftliners, testliners, and containerboard flutings. In addition, the company offers recycling solutions to cardboard and paper products; and supplies packaging machinery. It primarily serves consumer goods, industrial goods, and food and drink sectors. Smurfit Kappa Group Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Smurfit Kappa Group reported revenue of $31.2B in FY2025 versus $10.1B in FY2021, a compound +32.5%/yr. Reported net income was $699M in FY2025, compounding −2.4%/yr from FY2021.

SMFTF screens 18% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →

Peer Group

Packaging & Containers · 273 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.