Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jul 17, 2026: fair value of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc $26.32, price $44.30, upside -40.6%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.65 – $56.64 · fair‑value band $17.39 – $28.97 · the $44.30 price screens above the $26.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Smurfit Kappa Group Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in Ireland, Germany, France, Mexico, rest of Europe, and other Americas.
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Smurfit Kappa Group Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in Ireland, Germany, France, Mexico, rest of Europe, and other Americas. The company offers e-commerce, retail, consumer, industrial, bottle, protective, heavy-duty, hexacomb, and various punnet packaging products; composite cardboard tubes, bags, and sacks; and bag-in-box, a packaging system that comprises films, accessories, bags, taps, and boxes. It also provides point of sale displays; cardboards of social distancing; corrugated sheet boards, solid board sheets, folding carton sheet boards, sack Kraft papers, MG brown Kraft papers, preprint products, agro-papers, technical papers, BanaBag, and Catcher Board MB12; and various types of containerboards, such as kraftliners, testliners, and containerboard flutings. In addition, the company offers recycling solutions to cardboard and paper products; and supplies packaging machinery. It primarily serves consumer goods, industrial goods, and food and drink sectors. Smurfit Kappa Group Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Stock analysis
Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF) currently trades at $44.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.32, 40.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $47.22 per share, and 8 of the 25 models we run sit above the $44.30 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $15.34, and 17 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $17.39 (bear) to $28.97 (bull), the price of $44.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Smurfit Kappa Group Plc reported revenue of $31.2B in FY2025 versus $10.1B in FY2021, a compound +32.5%/yr. Reported net income was $699M in FY2025, compounding −2.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $23.1B · P/S ratio 2.19 · EPS (TTM) $3.16 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 14.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0% · Operating margin 11.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −41%, SMFTF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $17.39Fair Value $26.32Bull $28.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.16 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+47.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+6.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.7% vs −2.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.8% a year for the price.
Compare Smurfit Kappa Group Plc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 262 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−40.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−15.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.73× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.26× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.05× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF19.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA18.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)57· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)63· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)74· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Smurfit Kappa Group Plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMFTF
Frequently asked questions
Is Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.32 versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of $44.30, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMFTF?
Our model-based fair value for Smurfit Kappa Group Plc is $26.32 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 17, 2026): $44.30.
What is the quality score of SMFTF?
Smurfit Kappa Group Plc has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $26.32 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.39, optimistic scenario $28.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Smurfit Kappa Group Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $26.32, about −41% upside versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of $44.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $17.39, optimistic scenario $28.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
Smurfit Kappa Group Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $11.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Smurfit Kappa Group Plc pay a dividend?
Smurfit Kappa Group Plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.68% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Smurfit Kappa Group Plc would have to grow free cash flow by +15.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +29.6 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMFTF use?
Our models discount Smurfit Kappa Group Plc at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.96, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Smurfit Kappa Group Plc that is +15.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Smurfit Kappa Group Plc grew +29.6 % a year. The price currently implies +15.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (+15.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.19 %: that much free cash flow Smurfit Kappa Group Plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Smurfit Kappa Group Plc it is $26.32 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $44.30. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Smurfit Kappa Group Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, SMFTF trades above its calculated fair value: price $44.30, fair value $26.32, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMFTF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($44.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($26.32). For Smurfit Kappa Group Plc the two are $17.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Smurfit Kappa Group Plc worth?
The market values Smurfit Kappa Group Plc at about $23.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $44.30; our models calculate a fair value of $26.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMFTF?
Our models span a range for Smurfit Kappa Group Plc: cautious scenario $17.39, base $26.32, optimistic $28.97 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $44.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 14.3%, debt of 0.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMFTF from its 52-week high?
Smurfit Kappa Group Plc trades at $44.30, about 15% below its 52-week high of $51.84 and 36% above the low of $32.50 (as of Jul 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $26.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Smurfit Kappa Group Plc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Smurfit Kappa Group Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $44.30, calculated fair value $26.32 (−41%), Quality Score 33/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMFTF calculated?
We run Smurfit Kappa Group Plc through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $26.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Smurfit Kappa Group Plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 17, 2026 and stands at $44.30. Our model-based fair value is $26.32, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Smurfit Kappa Group Plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF) come from?
Earnings per share at Smurfit Kappa Group Plc grew +6.8 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.6 %, EBIT margin +0.1 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
The market capitalisation of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc is $23.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc is 2.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
Earnings per share at Smurfit Kappa Group Plc are $3.16. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
The dividend yield of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc is 3.7% (payout 51.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
The net margin of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc is 2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
The operating margin of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
Revenue at Smurfit Kappa Group Plc is growing −15.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF)?
Earnings per share at Smurfit Kappa Group Plc are growing −23.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (SMFTF) carry?
The net debt of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc is $12.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 3, 2026