International Paper Company (IP) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $20.1B
International Paper Company
IP · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +6.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 54% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.88). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.50 – $56.33 · fair‑value band $14.71 – $22.88 · the $40.53 price screens above the $18.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
International Paper Company (IP) currently trades at $40.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.71, implying the stock looks roughly 53.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, International Paper Company generated revenue of $24.3B at a net margin of -13.8%. Revenue grew 13.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -16.0%. Net debt stands at $9.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.71 (bear case) to $22.88 (bull case); at $40.53, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -54%, IP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($21.43) versus Asset-Based ($18.76). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 21 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
International Paper Company produces and sells renewable fiber-based packaging in North America, Latin America, Europe, South America, and North Africa. It operates through two segments, Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA.
Full company description
International Paper Company produces and sells renewable fiber-based packaging in North America, Latin America, Europe, South America, and North Africa. It operates through two segments, Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA. The company offers linerboard, medium, whitetop, and saturating kraft; and converts containerboard into corrugated boxes, bulk bins, shipping containers and specialty packaging through its converting facilities. Its products support customers in various industries, such as food and beverage, agriculture, industrial manufacturing, personal care pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
International Paper Company reported revenue of $24.9B in FY2025 versus $19.4B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.5B in FY2025.
IP screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Are Wall Street Analysts Bullish on International Paper Stock?
- IP Q2 Deep Dive: Cost Actions and Strategic Investments Offset Volume Weakness
- International Paper Company Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- International Paper (IP) Stock Fair Value Rises After Split Analyst Calls On Containerboard Pricing
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 270 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 78/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 101.90 | kr 126.39 | +24% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.10 | ¥20.88 | -28% |
| SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP | 29.00 THB | 16.12 THB | -44% |
| AblePrint Technology Co 7734 | 2,850 TWD | 661.69 TWD | -77% |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW | 5,312 IDR | 1,194 IDR | -78% |
| Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 | 132.50 TWD | 127.06 TWD | -4% |
| Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO | ₹206.82 | ₹161.42 | -22% |
| EPL Limited 500135 | ₹222.25 | ₹111.65 | -50% |
| Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 | 15.15 TWD | 23.17 TWD | +53% |
| Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 | 19,330 KRW | 31,473 KRW | +63% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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