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International Paper (IP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what International Paper is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN US4601461035

IP International Paper logo Thin data Sep 18, 2026

International Paper

IP · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $18.22 · Strongly overvalued (−48%)
!Quality 17/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +7.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -13.8% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·5.24% dividend yield
!Trails peers (3/13)
!Narrow moat 23/100
!Insider activity 45/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$56.33 $25.50 Fair Value $18.22 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $25.50 – $56.33 · fair‑value band $14.41 – $22.18 · the $35.33 price screens above the $18.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

International Paper Company produces and sells renewable fiber-based packaging in North America, Latin America, Europe, South America, and North Africa. It operates through two segments, Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA.

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International Paper Company produces and sells renewable fiber-based packaging in North America, Latin America, Europe, South America, and North Africa. It operates through two segments, Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA. The company offers linerboard, medium, whitetop, and saturating kraft; and converts containerboard into corrugated boxes, bulk bins, shipping containers and specialty packaging through its converting facilities. Its products support customers in various industries, such as food and beverage, agriculture, industrial manufacturing, personal care pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

Stock analysis

International Paper (IP) currently trades at $35.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.22, implying the stock looks roughly 93.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $21.43 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $35.33 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $18.76, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $14.41 (bear) to $22.18 (bull), the price of $35.33 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 17/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

International Paper reported revenue of $24.9B in FY2025 versus $19.4B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.5B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $18.7B · P/S ratio 0.74 · EPS (TTM) $−5.19 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin −14.1% · Return on equity −16.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% · Operating margin 3.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −48%, IP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $14.41 Fair Value $18.22 Bull $22.18
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $16.94 $21.43 $26.07 69
DDM Multi-Stage $16.94 $22.89 $30.16 67
NCAV (Graham) $14.00 $18.76 $28.00 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $16.94 $21.43 $26.07 69
DDM Multi-Stage $16.94 $22.89 $30.16 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $14.00 $18.76 $28.00 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 17/100

Of which business quality 21 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 16
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 29
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 28/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+33.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.0% (2020) → −11.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

IP screens 94% overvalued. Compare with Smurfit Westrock Plc, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 20 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −51% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −14% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 13% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.60× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.35× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.83× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.58× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)67 · sector 4
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)70 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 43

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW $44.58 $22.66 −49%
Packaging Corporation PKG $231.45 $122.63 −47%
Amcor plc AMCR $41.90 $17.87 −57%
Ball Corporation BALL $61.26 $36.57 −40%
Crown Holdings CCK $112.17 $118.59 +6%
Avery Dennison Corporation AVY $172.28 $113.05 −34%
CCL Industries Inc CCLA C$94.49 C$103.94 +10%
Stora Enso Oyj STEAV €10.55 €9.69 −8%
SIG Group SIGN CHF 13.14 CHF 8.21 −38%
Sonoco Products Company SON $48.82 $54.67 +12%

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International Paper · Fair Value
$18.22 −94%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "International Paper Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IP

Frequently asked questions

Is International Paper (IP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.22 versus a price of $35.33, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IP?
Our model-based fair value for International Paper is $18.22 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $35.33.
What is the quality score of IP?
International Paper has a Quality Score of 17/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for International Paper (IP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.22 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.41, optimistic scenario $22.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the International Paper stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.22, about −48% upside versus a price of $35.33 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $14.41, optimistic scenario $22.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of International Paper (IP)?
International Paper reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $24.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does International Paper pay a dividend?
International Paper currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.24% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of International Paper (IP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For International Paper it is $18.22 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $35.33. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is International Paper stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, IP trades above its calculated fair value: price $35.33, fair value $18.22, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($35.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.22). For International Paper the two are $17.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is International Paper worth?
The market values International Paper at about $18.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $35.33; our models calculate a fair value of $18.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IP?
Our models span a range for International Paper: cautious scenario $14.41, base $18.22, optimistic $22.18 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $35.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of IP?
The PEG ratio of International Paper is 1.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of International Paper (IP)?
Balance-sheet figures for International Paper (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity −16.0%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 17/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IP from its 52-week high?
International Paper trades at $35.33, about 34% below its 52-week high of $53.57 and 23% above the low of $28.83 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to International Paper?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is International Paper stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $35.33, calculated fair value $18.22 (−48%), Quality Score 17/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IP calculated?
We run International Paper through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. International Paper itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of International Paper (IP)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $35.33. Our model-based fair value is $18.22, about −48% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with International Paper right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (17/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of International Paper

How large is the market capitalisation of International Paper (IP)?
The market capitalisation of International Paper is $18.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of International Paper (IP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of International Paper is 0.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of International Paper (IP)?
Earnings per share at International Paper are $−5.19. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of International Paper (IP)?
The dividend yield of International Paper is 5.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of International Paper (IP)?
The net margin of International Paper is −14.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of International Paper (IP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of International Paper is −16.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of International Paper (IP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of International Paper is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of International Paper (IP)?
The operating margin of International Paper is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at International Paper (IP)?
Revenue at International Paper is growing +13.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at International Paper (IP)?
Earnings per share at International Paper are growing −90.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does International Paper (IP) generate?
The free cash flow of International Paper is −$159M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does International Paper (IP) carry?
The net debt of International Paper is $9.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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