Packaging Corp of America (PKG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Packaging Corp of America stock $131, price $249, that is 47.5% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $99.71 – $259.17 · fair‑value band $64.73 – $183.38 · the $248.80 price screens above the $130.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments.
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The Packaging segment offers various linerboard and corrugated packaging products, such as conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods; multi-color boxes and displays that help to merchandise the packaged product in retail locations; and honeycomb protective packaging products, as well as packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products.
This segment sells its corrugated products through a direct sales and marketing organization. The Paper segment manufactures and sells commodity and specialty papers, as well as communication papers, including cut-size office papers, and printing and converting papers; and white papers.
This segment sells papers through its sales and marketing organization. Packaging Corporation of America was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Packaging Corp of America (PKG) currently trades at $248.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $130.52, 48% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $146.71 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $248.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $19.73, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $64.73 (bear) to $183.38 (bull), the price of $248.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Packaging Corp of America reported revenue of $9.0B in FY2025 versus $7.7B in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was $769M in FY2025, compounding −2.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $22.1B Large · P/E ratio 30.7 · P/S ratio 2.25 · EPS (TTM) $8.11 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 14.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −48%, PKG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$64.73Fair Value $130.52Bull$183.38
Price $248.80 · Downside -47.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.83 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $12.2M and none bought.
SaleDonald R. ShirleyExec. VP12,000 shares at $250.71$3.0MAug 20, 2026
SaleThomas A HassfurtherPresident3× since Feb 5, 2026: 40,520 shares, avg. $246.38$10.0MAug 7, 2026
SaleMark W KowlzanChairman & CEO, Director9,266 shares at $217.08$2.0MMay 27, 2026
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.6% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.0% vs 6.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.6% a year for the price and +5.9% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Integration of assets has lifted shipments and enabled efficiency gains as the main strength, yet limited innovation and commodity exposure in a cyclical market remain the key weakness.
Main risk: Providers of reusable container systems and automated fulfillment could reduce demand for single-use corrugated packaging from e-commerce and other customers, pressuring volumes and margins.
Bull case: By adopting reusable packaging services or optimizing designs with digital tools the company could capture new revenue streams in circular models and retain customers seeking sustainable options.
Bear case: If reusable systems and automation gain widespread adoption the core corrugated business could face structurally lower volumes as customers shift away from single-use boxes in key markets.
Packaging Corp integrates the Greif containerboard assets, lifting corrugated shipments 17 percent while restructuring the Wallula mill to cut costs by up to 85 million dollars a year. These moves expand capacity and improve efficiency, yet they coincide with plant closures and ongoing integration work in a cyclical packaging market. Will the realized synergies exceed the restructuring expenses and any softness in box demand?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 261 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−47.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)15.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.86× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Packaging Corp of America Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PKG
Frequently asked questions
Is Packaging Corp of America (PKG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $130.52 versus a price of $248.80, about 48% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PKG?
Our model-based fair value for Packaging Corp of America is $130.52 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $248.80.
What is the quality score of PKG?
Packaging Corp of America has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $130.52 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $64.73, optimistic scenario $183.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Packaging Corp of America stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $130.52, about 48% lower versus a price of $248.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $64.73, optimistic scenario $183.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
Packaging Corp of America reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Packaging Corp of America pay a dividend?
Packaging Corp of America currently shows a dividend yield of 0.50% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Packaging Corp of America would have to grow free cash flow by +17.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PKG use?
Our models discount Packaging Corp of America at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Packaging Corp of America that is +17.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Packaging Corp of America (PKG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Packaging Corp of America grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies +17.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Packaging Corp of America (PKG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Packaging Corp of America (+17.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.29 %: that much free cash flow Packaging Corp of America produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Packaging Corp of America it is $130.52 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $248.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Packaging Corp of America stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, PKG trades above its calculated fair value: price $248.80, fair value $130.52, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PKG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($248.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($130.52). For Packaging Corp of America the two are $118.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Packaging Corp of America worth?
The market values Packaging Corp of America at about $22.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $248.80; our models calculate a fair value of $130.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PKG?
Our models span a range for Packaging Corp of America: cautious scenario $64.73, base $130.52, optimistic $183.38 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $248.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PKG?
Packaging Corp of America trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $130.52 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 25.3 (reported for FY2025: 29.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2020, FY2025 ex one-offs: 18.4. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 4.8, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 12.9.
What is the PEG ratio of PKG?
The PEG ratio of Packaging Corp of America is 1.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Packaging Corp of America (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 14.9%, debt of 0.86 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PKG from its 52-week high?
Packaging Corp of America trades at $248.80, about 4% below its 52-week high of $259.17 and 33% above the low of $186.94 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $130.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Packaging Corp of America?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Packaging Corp of America stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $248.80, calculated fair value $130.52 (−48%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PKG calculated?
We run Packaging Corp of America through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $130.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Packaging Corp of America itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $248.80. Our model-based fair value is $130.52, about 48% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Packaging Corp of America right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($183.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($64.73 to $183.38). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Packaging Corp of America (PKG) come from?
Earnings per share at Packaging Corp of America grew +7.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.1 %, EBIT margin +0.7 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Packaging Corp of America
How large is the market capitalisation of Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
The market capitalisation of Packaging Corp of America is $22.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Packaging Corp of America is 2.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
Earnings per share at Packaging Corp of America are $8.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
The dividend yield of Packaging Corp of America is 0.5% (payout 13.4%, on adjusted earnings, reported 15.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
The net margin of Packaging Corp of America is 7.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Packaging Corp of America is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Packaging Corp of America is 14.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
The operating margin of Packaging Corp of America is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
Revenue at Packaging Corp of America is growing +12.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Packaging Corp of America (PKG)?
Earnings per share at Packaging Corp of America are growing +16.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Packaging Corp of America (PKG) carry?
The net debt of Packaging Corp of America is $3.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026