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China ITS (Holdings) Co (1900) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · HK · Market cap HK$365M

CI China ITS (Holdings) Co 1900 · HK
PriceHK$0.1830
Fair ValueHK$0.3084
Upside+68.5%
Quality60/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 7.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/13)
Narrow moat 28/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.2301 – HK$0.3843 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.9300 to HK$0.3084 (−66.8%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +2.8% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 69% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.2301). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$0.4100 HK$0.0983 Fair Value HK$0.3084 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0983 – HK$0.4100 · fair‑value band HK$0.2301 – HK$0.3843 · the HK$0.1830 price screens below the HK$0.3084 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China ITS (Holdings) Co (1900) currently trades at HK$0.1830, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3084, implying the stock looks roughly 68.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, China ITS (Holdings) Co generated revenue of HK$928M at a net margin of 7.6%. Revenue declined 16.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$456M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2301 (bear case) to HK$0.3843 (bull case); at HK$0.1830, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 69%, 1900 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$1.34 HK$1.60 HK$2.00 80
Residual Income HK$0.7400 HK$0.7200 HK$0.6000 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.13 HK$1.42 HK$1.77 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.31 HK$1.58 HK$2.04 38
Owner Earnings HK$0.8100 HK$0.9300 HK$1.13 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.13 HK$1.39 HK$1.77 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.50 HK$2.03 HK$2.73 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.22 HK$1.54 HK$1.92 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.19 HK$1.38 HK$1.58 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.41 HK$1.74 HK$2.09 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.25 HK$1.46 HK$1.66 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.2700 HK$0.3300 HK$0.3700 54
EPV HK$0.9100 HK$0.9800 HK$1.04 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.1600 HK$0.1700 HK$0.1900 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.1600 HK$0.1900 HK$0.2300 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.8400 HK$1.12 HK$1.40 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.5100 HK$0.6800 HK$0.8500 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.5100 HK$0.6800 HK$0.8500 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.65 HK$2.06 HK$2.48 53
EV/EBITDA HK$1.85 HK$2.33 HK$2.81 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.04 HK$1.31 HK$1.58 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.5300 HK$0.7100 HK$1.06 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.34 HK$1.60 HK$2.00 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.13 HK$1.42 HK$1.77 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.7400 HK$0.7200 HK$0.6000 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.9100 HK$0.9800 HK$1.04 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.5900 HK$0.8400 HK$1.09 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$1.46) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.1700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$928M
Revenue growth (YoY) -16.0%
Net margin 7.6%
Return on equity 5.6%
Free cash flow HK$189M FY2025
P/E ratio 4.2 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin -4.6%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.2100
EPS growth (YoY) -38.9%
Net cash HK$456M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 87
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 67
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 75
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China ITS (Holdings) Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, provides products, specialized solutions, and services related to infrastructure technology in railway and electric power sectors in the People's Republic of China, Myanmar, Malaysia, and Hungary. It operates through Railway Business, Energy Business, and Aviation Business segments.

Full company description

China ITS (Holdings) Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, provides products, specialized solutions, and services related to infrastructure technology in railway and electric power sectors in the People's Republic of China, Myanmar, Malaysia, and Hungary. It operates through Railway Business, Energy Business, and Aviation Business segments. The Railway Business segment offers specialized solutions, including railway communication products and energy-base products; and maintenance, network optimization and network planning, and technical consulting services for the products related to the communication system for railway customers. The Energy Business segment is involved in the provision of products and specialized solutions related to electric power equipment, such as power transmission and transformation equipment, and power generation equipment for customers in the electric power infrastructure construction area; and value-added operation and services related to power plant investment, construction and operation, as well as energy conservation services. The Aviation Business segment provides software technology development and technical consulting services for the aviation industry, manufacturing industry, and government. It also engages in the commercial properties leasing; power generation business; and research and development of civil aviation related communication and information/electromechanical engineering technologies. In addition, the company provides technology specialized services and sale of electronics, as well as communications and surveillance specialized solutions and value-added operation and services; Intelligent Transportation system service; purchasing service for group companies; IT consulting, solutions, and outsourcing services; and low-altitude intelligent internet connectivity services. China ITS (Holdings) Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China ITS (Holdings) Co reported revenue of HK$904M in FY2025 versus HK$740M in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$68.7M in FY2025, compounding −2.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$904M
Latest YoY
+10.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.6%
Avg. growth/yr (18Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.5%
Revenue +5.1%/yr
FY21 HK$740M
FY22 HK$714M
FY23 HK$857M
FY24 HK$820M
FY25 HK$904M
Net income −2.0%/yr
FY21 HK$74.5M
FY22 HK$48.5M
FY23 HK$137M
FY24 HK$22.1M
FY25 HK$68.7M

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China ITS (Holdings) Co · Fair Value
HK$0.3084 +69%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China ITS (Holdings) Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1900

Peer Group

Information Technology Services · 488 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside +69% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) -5% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -16% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 4.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.20× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.39× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.34× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 33
FUTURE 0 · sector 31
PAST 23 · sector 35
HEALTH 100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 36

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
International Business Machines Corporation IBM $235.98 $175.76 -26%
Accenture plc ACNN 2,460 MXN 300.07 MXN -88%
Tata Consultancy Services Limited TCS ₹2,350 ₹3,473 +48%
Infosys Limited INFY ₹1,176 ₹1,998 +70%
HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH ₹1,365 ₹1,722 +26%
Wipro Limited WIPRO ₹183.94 ₹314.26 +71%
Tech Mahindra Limited TECHM ₹1,625 ₹1,521 -6%
Samsung SDS Co 018260 235,500 KRW 235,321 KRW -0%
Persistent Systems Limited PERSISTENT ₹5,474 ₹3,259 -40%
Hyundai Autoever Corporation 307950 433,000 KRW 186,323 KRW -57%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China ITS (Holdings) Co (1900) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3084 versus a price of HK$0.1830, about +69% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1900?
Our model-based fair value for China ITS (Holdings) Co is HK$0.3084 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.1830.
What is the quality score of 1900?
China ITS (Holdings) Co has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China ITS (Holdings) Co (1900)?
China ITS (Holdings) Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$928M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1900?
The net profit margin of China ITS (Holdings) Co is about 7.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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