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Cloud Factory Tech Hldg Ltd (2512) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · HK · Market cap HK$1.4B

CF Cloud Factory Tech Hldg Ltd 2512 · HK
PriceHK$2.77
Fair ValueHK$0.6630
Upside-76.1%
Quality35/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 1.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (3/14)
Narrow moat 23/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.5695 – HK$0.8330 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price −3.5% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 76% overvalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.8330). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (2 years)

HK$5.26 HK$1.65 Fair Value HK$0.6630 Jun 2024 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

26‑month range HK$1.65 – HK$5.26 · fair‑value band HK$0.5695 – HK$0.8330 · the HK$2.77 price screens above the HK$0.6630 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Cloud Factory Tech Hldg Ltd (2512) currently trades at HK$2.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6630, implying the stock looks roughly 76.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Cloud Factory Tech Hldg Ltd generated revenue of HK$943M at a net margin of 1.2%. Revenue grew 58.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$206M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.5695 (bear case) to HK$0.8330 (bull case); at HK$2.77, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -76%, 2512 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$1.40 HK$1.52 HK$1.72 80
Residual Income HK$0.6900 HK$0.6600 HK$0.5000 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.48 HK$1.51 HK$1.54 72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.41 HK$1.50 HK$1.75 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.52 HK$1.78 HK$2.31 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.80 HK$2.37 HK$3.46 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.63 HK$2.14 HK$2.84 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.47 HK$1.79 HK$2.10 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.67 HK$2.32 HK$3.60 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.55 HK$2.00 HK$2.80 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.1600 HK$1.14 HK$1.60 54
Lynch FV HK$0.3800 HK$0.5500 HK$0.7100 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.3800 HK$0.5500 HK$0.7100 46
EPV HK$1.48 HK$1.51 HK$1.54 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.4900 HK$0.8800 HK$1.21 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.4900 HK$0.8000 HK$0.9400 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.5100 HK$0.6700 HK$0.8400 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.3100 HK$0.4100 HK$0.5100 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.3100 HK$0.4100 HK$0.5100 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.86 HK$2.08 HK$2.29 53
EV/EBITDA HK$2.00 HK$2.26 HK$2.51 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.55 HK$1.69 HK$1.83 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.5100 HK$0.6900 HK$1.02 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.40 HK$1.52 HK$1.72 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.6900 HK$0.6600 HK$0.5000 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.48 HK$1.51 HK$1.54 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.5700 HK$0.8200 HK$1.06 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.00) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.5500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$943M
Revenue growth (YoY) +58.8%
Net margin 1.2%
Return on equity 2.5%
Free cash flow HK$6.5M FY2025
P/E ratio 144.5 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 0.1%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0300
EPS growth (YoY) -1.0%
Net cash HK$206M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 37
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 30
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 41
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 39
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Cloud Factory Technology Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides edge computing and artificial intelligence services in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: IDC Solution Services, Edge Computing Services, Intelligent Computing, and Other Services.

Full company description

Cloud Factory Technology Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides edge computing and artificial intelligence services in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: IDC Solution Services, Edge Computing Services, Intelligent Computing, and Other Services. It offers colocation and infrastructure management services; content delivery network and other functionality; construction and operation of intelligent computing centres, computing power scheduling platform, and computing power mall services; and technical services, including software installation and debugging, as well as equipment and infrastructure deployment services under the Lingjing Cloud brand name. The company also provides Edge CDN that offers edge network content distribution acceleration services for websites, short videos, and long video platforms; Edge AIoT for cloud AI applications, computing, networking, and storage; Edge DOS, an object-based cloud storage service platform for unstructured data; Edge Live for audio and video live streaming; and Edge SSL for data HTTPS encryption protocol access for websites, APP applications, and mini programs. In addition, it engages in the rental, construction, operation, and maintenance services for specialized large-scale AI computing clusters; and server hosting, rental, and related value-added services. Further, the company is involved in the provision of technical support and consultation services. It serves the government, communications, finance, energy, transportation, industry, and universities industries. Cloud Factory Technology Holdings Limited has strategic partnership with Park Ha Biological Technology Co., Ltd. to build ai-driven ecosystem for the beauty industry. The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Wuxi, China. Cloud Factory Technology Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Ru Yi Information Technology Co., Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Cloud Factory Tech Hldg Ltd reported revenue of HK$943M in FY2025 versus HK$464M in FY2021, a compound +19.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$11.5M in FY2025, compounding −2.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$943M
Latest YoY
+33.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.8%
Revenue +19.4%/yr
FY21 HK$464M
FY22 HK$549M
FY23 HK$696M
FY24 HK$708M
FY25 HK$943M
Net income −2.3%/yr
FY21 HK$12.7M
FY22 HK$8.0M
FY23 HK$13.9M
FY24 HK$12.1M
FY25 HK$11.5M

2512 screens 76% overvalued. Compare with International Business Machines Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cloud Factory Tech Hldg Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2512

Peer Group

Information Technology Services · 490 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −76% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Revenue growth 59% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.2% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 144.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 2.82× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.47× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 27.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 30.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 33
FUTURE 100 · sector 30
PAST 10 · sector 35
HEALTH 99 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 43 · sector 40

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
International Business Machines Corporation IBM $235.98 $175.76 -26%
Accenture plc ACNN 2,460 MXN 300.07 MXN -88%
Tata Consultancy Services Limited TCS ₹2,350 ₹3,473 +48%
Infosys Limited INFY ₹1,176 ₹1,998 +70%
HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH ₹1,365 ₹1,722 +26%
Wipro Limited WIPRO ₹183.94 ₹314.26 +71%
Tech Mahindra Limited TECHM ₹1,625 ₹1,521 -6%
Samsung SDS Co 018260 235,500 KRW 235,321 KRW -0%
Persistent Systems Limited PERSISTENT ₹5,474 ₹3,259 -40%
Hyundai Autoever Corporation 307950 433,000 KRW 186,323 KRW -57%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Cloud Factory Tech Hldg Ltd (2512) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.6630 versus a price of HK$2.77, about −76% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2512?
Our model-based fair value for Cloud Factory Tech Hldg Ltd is HK$0.6630 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$2.77.
What is the quality score of 2512?
Cloud Factory Tech Hldg Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Cloud Factory Tech Hldg Ltd (2512)?
Cloud Factory Tech Hldg Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$943M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2512?
The net profit margin of Cloud Factory Tech Hldg Ltd is about 1.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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