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Medtronic plc (2M6) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Medtronic plc €66.50, price €77.00, upside -13.6%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Healthcare · DE · ISIN IE00BTN1Y115

MP Broad data Sep 29, 2026

Medtronic plc

2M6 · XETRA

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value €66.50 · Overvalued (−13.6%)
✓Quality 66/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +3.8 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.7% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Moderate moat 57/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€98.18 €59.77 Fair Value €66.50 Aug 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €59.77 – €98.18 · fair‑value band €34.37 – €90.73 · the €77.00 price screens above the €66.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Medtronic plc develops, manufactures, and sells device-based medical therapies to healthcare systems, physicians, clinicians, and patients in the United States, Ireland, and internationally.

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Medtronic plc develops, manufactures, and sells device-based medical therapies to healthcare systems, physicians, clinicians, and patients in the United States, Ireland, and internationally. The Cardiovascular Portfolio segment offers implantable cardiac pacemakers, cardioverter defibrillators, and cardiac resynchronization therapy devices; cardiac ablation products; insertable cardiac monitor systems; TYRX products; and remote monitoring and patient-centered software. It also provides aortic valves, surgical valve replacement and repair products, endovascular stent grafts and accessories, and transcatheter pulmonary valves, and percutaneous coronary intervention products, percutaneous angioplasty balloons, and other products. The Neuroscience Portfolio segment offers medical devices and implants, biologic solutions, spinal cord stimulation and brain modulation systems, implantable drug infusion systems, and interventional products, as well as nerve ablation system under the Accurian name. The segment offers its products for spinal surgeons, neurosurgeons, neurologists, pain management specialists, anesthesiologists, orthopedic surgeons, urologists, urogynecologists, and interventional radiologists, as well as ear, nose, and throat specialists, and energy surgical instruments. The Medical Surgical Portfolio segment offers surgical stapling devices, vessel sealing instruments, wound closure and electrosurgery products, AI-powered surgical video and analytics platform, robotic-assisted surgery products, hernia mechanical devices, mesh implants, gynecology products, gastrointestinal and hepatologic diagnostics and therapies, and therapies to treat diseases and conditions, and patient monitoring and airway management products. The Diabetes Operating Unit segment provides insulin pumps and consumables, continuous glucose monitoring systems and sensors, and InPen, a smart insulin pen. Medtronic plc was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Galway, Ireland.

Stock analysis

Medtronic plc (2M6) currently trades at €77.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €66.50, 13.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €66.78 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the €77.00 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €23.00, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €34.37 (bear) to €90.73 (bull), the price of €77.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Medtronic plc reported revenue of $36.4B in FY2026 versus $31.7B in FY2022, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was $4.8B in FY2026, compounding −1.2%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap €99.2B · P/E ratio 23.5 · P/S ratio 3.11 · EPS (TTM) €3.27 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 13.2% · Return on equity 9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −14%, 2M6 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €34.37 Fair Value €66.50 Bull €90.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1838 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €31.87 €61.33 €107.51 77
Growth DCF €32.47 €58.08 €95.51 76
Residual Income €30.17 €33.27 €39.77 76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €31.87 €61.33 €107.51 77
Owner Earnings €35.33 €66.88 €116.35 73
5Y Revenue Exit €29.89 €59.37 €97.42 70
5Y EBITDA Exit €44.90 €88.02 €139.18 73
5Y P/E Exit €32.27 €63.92 €97.63 69
10Y Revenue Exit €28.66 €56.00 €93.66 64
10Y EBITDA Exit €39.79 €76.11 €126.14 66
10Y P/E Exit €31.67 €59.19 €93.82 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €22.65 €77.51 €104.01 64
Lynch FV €17.84 €25.48 €33.12 61
PEG = 1.0 €17.84 €25.48 €33.12 57
EPV €24.38 €31.24 €37.24 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €23.18 €48.21 €76.47 66
DDM Multi-Stage €23.18 €40.07 €50.59 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple €54.96 €73.27 €91.59 63
P/S Multiple €42.47 €56.62 €70.78 58
P/B Multiple €42.47 €56.62 €70.78 55
EV/EBIT €49.81 €72.00 €94.20 65
EV/EBITDA €59.61 €85.07 €110.53 67
EV/Revenue €30.75 €51.12 €71.48 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €17.16 €23.00 €34.33 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €32.47 €58.08 €95.51 76
Rev-Margin DCF €29.89 €59.23 €93.83 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income €30.17 €33.27 €39.77 76
ROIC Compounder €24.38 €31.24 €41.05 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €46.75 €66.78 €86.82 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 62
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 41
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 88
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.3% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.0% vs 4.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 21%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.7% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.8%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+3.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.1%
Projected 2031 (sales)+2.9%

2M6 screens overvalued: fair value 14% below the price. Compare with Abbott Laboratories, →

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Values & ESG

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None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Devices stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Abbott Laboratories, ABT $98.83 $74.79 −24%
Stryker Corporation SYK $278.77 $306.65 +10%
Boston Scientific Corporation BSX $43.65 $48.02 +10%
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation EW $85.19 $81.94 −4%
Siemens Healthineers AG SHL €37.86 €35.19 −7%
DexCom, Inc DXCM $86.68 $95.35 +10%
GE HealthCare Technologies Inc GEHC $66.63 $70.37 +6%
Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co 300760 ¥153.86 ¥169.25 +10%
Koninklijke Philips N.V PHIA €21.87 €15.23 −30%
STERIS plc STE $208.93 $229.82 +10%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Medtronic plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2M6

Frequently asked questions

Is Medtronic plc (2M6) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €66.50 versus a price of €77.00, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2M6?
Our model-based fair value for Medtronic plc is €66.50 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €77.00.
What is the quality score of 2M6?
Medtronic plc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Medtronic plc (2M6)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €66.50 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €34.37, optimistic scenario €90.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Medtronic plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €66.50, about −14% upside versus a price of €77.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €34.37, optimistic scenario €90.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Medtronic plc (2M6)?
Medtronic plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $36.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Medtronic plc pay a dividend?
Medtronic plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.69% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Medtronic plc (2M6)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Medtronic plc would have to grow free cash flow by +8.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.8 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2M6 use?
Our models discount Medtronic plc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Medtronic plc that is +8.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Medtronic plc (2M6) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Medtronic plc grew +3.8 % a year. The price currently implies +8.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Medtronic plc (2M6) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Medtronic plc (+8.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Medtronic plc (2M6)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.86 %: that much free cash flow Medtronic plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Medtronic plc (2M6)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Medtronic plc it is €66.50 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €77.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Medtronic plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 2M6 trades above its calculated fair value: price €77.00, fair value €66.50, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2M6?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€77.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€66.50). For Medtronic plc the two are €10.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Medtronic plc worth?
The market values Medtronic plc at about €99.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €77.00; our models calculate a fair value of €66.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2M6?
Our models span a range for Medtronic plc: cautious scenario €34.37, base €66.50, optimistic €90.73 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €77.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 2M6 from its 52-week high?
Medtronic plc trades at €77.00, about 14% below its 52-week high of €89.05 and 23% above the low of €62.78 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €66.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Medtronic plc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Stryker Corporation, Boston Scientific Corporation, Edwards Lifesciences Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Medtronic plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €77.00, calculated fair value €66.50 (−14%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2M6 calculated?
We run Medtronic plc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €66.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Medtronic plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Medtronic plc (2M6)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €77.00. Our model-based fair value is €66.50, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Medtronic plc right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€34.37 to €90.73). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Medtronic plc (2M6) come from?
Earnings per share at Medtronic plc grew +2.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.0 %, EBIT margin +0.0 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Medtronic plc

How large is the market capitalisation of Medtronic plc (2M6)?
The market capitalisation of Medtronic plc is €99.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Medtronic plc (2M6)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Medtronic plc is 23.5. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Medtronic plc (2M6)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Medtronic plc is 3.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Medtronic plc (2M6)?
Earnings per share at Medtronic plc are €3.27 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Medtronic plc (2M6)?
The dividend yield of Medtronic plc is 3.7% (payout 86.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Medtronic plc (2M6)?
The net margin of Medtronic plc is 13.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Medtronic plc (2M6)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Medtronic plc is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Medtronic plc (2M6)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Medtronic plc is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Medtronic plc (2M6)?
The operating margin of Medtronic plc is 22.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Medtronic plc (2M6)?
Revenue at Medtronic plc is growing +9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Medtronic plc (2M6)?
Earnings per share at Medtronic plc are growing +18.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Medtronic plc (2M6) carry?
The net debt of Medtronic plc is $26.0B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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