Expert Systems Holdings Ltd (8319) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · HK · Market cap HK$86.0M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.1000 to HK$0.1300 (+30.0%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −1.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 26% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- Our model range runs from HK$0.1000 (bear) to HK$0.1700 (bull), base HK$0.1300. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 58/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0720 – HK$0.1450 · fair‑value band HK$0.1000 – HK$0.1700 · the HK$0.1030 price screens below the HK$0.1300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Expert Systems Holdings Ltd (8319) currently trades at HK$0.1030, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1300, implying the stock looks roughly 26.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Expert Systems Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$1,000M at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue grew 13.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$143M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1000 (bear case) to HK$0.1700 (bull case); at HK$0.1030, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 26%, 8319 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$0.6100) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.0600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Expert Systems Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides information technology (IT) infrastructure solutions, IT infrastructure management services, and develops artificial intelligence (AI) products and services.
Full company description
Expert Systems Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides information technology (IT) infrastructure solutions, IT infrastructure management services, and develops artificial intelligence (AI) products and services. It offers infrastructure and cloud products, such as system/server/storage, next gen/HCI, high performance computing, software defined data center, middleware, and application software products; cyber security and networking products, including data and cloud security, endpoint security, and networking products; application modernization products comprising AI, container orchestration, and DevOps products; and laptop/PC/workstation, printing/imaging, thin client, and mobility products. The company also provides IT life cycle; digital transformation; infrastructure solutions, such as capacity planning, virtualization, and backup and recovery; project management and deployment; maintenance and support; and consulting and application management services. In addition, it offers IT hardware maintenance, helpdesk, IT outsourcing and workflow automation services. The company serves corporate and institutional customers in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, and internationally. Expert Systems Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Expert Systems Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$1,000M in FY2026 versus HK$682M in FY2022, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$3.9M in FY2026, compounding −29.1%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +13.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −5.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Information Technology Services · 490 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| International Business Machines Corporation IBM | $235.98 | $175.76 | -26% |
| Accenture plc ACNN | 2,460 MXN | 300.07 MXN | -88% |
| Tata Consultancy Services Limited TCS | ₹2,350 | ₹3,473 | +48% |
| Infosys Limited INFY | ₹1,176 | ₹1,998 | +70% |
| HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH | ₹1,365 | ₹1,722 | +26% |
| Wipro Limited WIPRO | ₹183.94 | ₹314.26 | +71% |
| Tech Mahindra Limited TECHM | ₹1,625 | ₹1,521 | -6% |
| Samsung SDS Co 018260 | 235,500 KRW | 235,321 KRW | -0% |
| Persistent Systems Limited PERSISTENT | ₹5,474 | ₹3,259 | -40% |
| Hyundai Autoever Corporation 307950 | 433,000 KRW | 186,323 KRW | -57% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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