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Expert Systems Holdings Ltd (8319) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · HK · Market cap HK$86.0M

ES Expert Systems Holdings Ltd 8319 · HK
PriceHK$0.1030
Fair ValueHK$0.1300
Upside+26.2%
Quality58/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 0.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
4.63% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/12)
Narrow moat 16/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.1000 – HK$0.1700 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.1000 to HK$0.1300 (+30.0%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −1.0% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 26% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • Our model range runs from HK$0.1000 (bear) to HK$0.1700 (bull), base HK$0.1300. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 58/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$0.1450 HK$0.0720 Fair Value HK$0.1300 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0720 – HK$0.1450 · fair‑value band HK$0.1000 – HK$0.1700 · the HK$0.1030 price screens below the HK$0.1300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Expert Systems Holdings Ltd (8319) currently trades at HK$0.1030, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1300, implying the stock looks roughly 26.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Expert Systems Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$1,000M at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue grew 13.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$143M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1000 (bear case) to HK$0.1700 (bull case); at HK$0.1030, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 26%, 8319 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.6200 HK$0.8400 HK$1.14 80
Residual Income HK$0.1400 HK$0.1300 HK$0.0900 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.4300 HK$0.5200 HK$0.6300 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.6300 HK$0.8900 HK$1.26 38
Owner Earnings HK$0.3900 HK$0.5000 HK$0.6600 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.4300 HK$0.5100 HK$0.6100 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.5600 HK$0.7800 HK$1.05 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.4300 HK$0.5200 HK$0.6200 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.5100 HK$0.6100 HK$0.7400 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.5800 HK$0.7800 HK$1.06 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.5100 HK$0.6200 HK$0.7500 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.0300 HK$0.1500 HK$0.2100 54
Lynch FV HK$0.0400 HK$0.0600 HK$0.0800 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.0400 HK$0.0600 HK$0.0800 46
EPV HK$0.2600 HK$0.2700 HK$0.2700 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.0600 HK$0.1000 HK$0.1200 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.0600 HK$0.0900 HK$0.1000 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.1000 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1700 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.0600 HK$0.0800 HK$0.1000 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.0600 HK$0.0800 HK$0.1000 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.3700 HK$0.4300 HK$0.4900 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.5400 HK$0.6500 HK$0.7600 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.2900 HK$0.3300 HK$0.3600 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1100 HK$0.1500 HK$0.2200 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.6200 HK$0.8400 HK$1.14 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.4300 HK$0.5200 HK$0.6300 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.1400 HK$0.1300 HK$0.0900 76
ROIC Compounder HK$0.2700 HK$0.2800 HK$0.2900 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.0800 HK$0.1100 HK$0.1400 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$0.6100) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.0600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1,000M
Revenue growth (YoY) +13.0%
Net margin 0.4%
Return on equity 1.8%
Free cash flow HK$36.5M FY2025
Operating margin -0.1%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0200
Dividend yield 4.6%
EPS growth (YoY) -18.8%
Net cash HK$143M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 80
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Expert Systems Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides information technology (IT) infrastructure solutions, IT infrastructure management services, and develops artificial intelligence (AI) products and services.

Full company description

Expert Systems Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides information technology (IT) infrastructure solutions, IT infrastructure management services, and develops artificial intelligence (AI) products and services. It offers infrastructure and cloud products, such as system/server/storage, next gen/HCI, high performance computing, software defined data center, middleware, and application software products; cyber security and networking products, including data and cloud security, endpoint security, and networking products; application modernization products comprising AI, container orchestration, and DevOps products; and laptop/PC/workstation, printing/imaging, thin client, and mobility products. The company also provides IT life cycle; digital transformation; infrastructure solutions, such as capacity planning, virtualization, and backup and recovery; project management and deployment; maintenance and support; and consulting and application management services. In addition, it offers IT hardware maintenance, helpdesk, IT outsourcing and workflow automation services. The company serves corporate and institutional customers in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, and internationally. Expert Systems Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Expert Systems Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$1,000M in FY2026 versus HK$682M in FY2022, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$3.9M in FY2026, compounding −29.1%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 84/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
HK$1,000M
Latest YoY
+11.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.4%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.4%
Revenue +10.0%/yr
FY22 HK$682M
FY23 HK$887M
FY24 HK$991M
FY25 HK$901M
FY26 HK$1,000M
Net income −29.1%/yr
FY22 HK$15.2M
FY23 HK$19.7M
FY24 HK$15.4M
FY25 HK$14.0M
FY26 HK$3.9M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) −5.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.7 pp

of which total revenue +13.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −5.6 pp

EBIT margin −8.9 pp
Tax rate −1.6 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.5 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Expert Systems Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8319

Peer Group

Information Technology Services · 490 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside +26% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -0% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 13% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.6% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.39× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.06× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.01× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.3× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 68 · sector 33
FUTURE 65 · sector 30
PAST 7 · sector 35
HEALTH 81 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 93 · sector 40

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
International Business Machines Corporation IBM $235.98 $175.76 -26%
Accenture plc ACNN 2,460 MXN 300.07 MXN -88%
Tata Consultancy Services Limited TCS ₹2,350 ₹3,473 +48%
Infosys Limited INFY ₹1,176 ₹1,998 +70%
HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH ₹1,365 ₹1,722 +26%
Wipro Limited WIPRO ₹183.94 ₹314.26 +71%
Tech Mahindra Limited TECHM ₹1,625 ₹1,521 -6%
Samsung SDS Co 018260 235,500 KRW 235,321 KRW -0%
Persistent Systems Limited PERSISTENT ₹5,474 ₹3,259 -40%
Hyundai Autoever Corporation 307950 433,000 KRW 186,323 KRW -57%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Expert Systems Holdings Ltd (8319) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1300 versus a price of HK$0.1030, about +26% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8319?
Our model-based fair value for Expert Systems Holdings Ltd is HK$0.1300 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.1030.
What is the quality score of 8319?
Expert Systems Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Expert Systems Holdings Ltd (8319)?
Expert Systems Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1,000M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 8319?
The net profit margin of Expert Systems Holdings Ltd is about 0.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Expert Systems Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Expert Systems Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.63% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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