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GDS Holdings Ltd (9698) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of GDS Holdings Ltd HK$12.16, price HK$32.56, upside -62.7%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · HK · ISIN KYG3902L1095

GH GDS Holdings Ltd logo Some data Sep 27, 2026

GDS Holdings Ltd

9698 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$12.16 · Strongly overvalued (−62.7%)
!Quality 39/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +14.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 23.5% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
✓Wide moat 65/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 2 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$77.80 HK$5.11 Fair Value HK$12.16 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$5.11 – HK$77.80 · fair‑value band HK$12.16 – HK$12.84 · the HK$32.56 price screens above the HK$12.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

GDS Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and operation of data centers in the People's Republic of China.

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GDS Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and operation of data centers in the People's Republic of China. It provides colocation services comprising critical facilities space, customer-available power, racks, and cooling; managed hosting services, including business continuity and disaster recovery, network management, data storage, system security, operating system, database, and server middleware services; managed cloud services; and consulting services. The company serves cloud service providers, large Internet companies, financial institutions, telecommunications carriers and IT service providers, large domestic private sector, and multinational corporations. GDS Holdings Limited was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

GDS Holdings Ltd (9698) currently trades at HK$32.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$12.16, implying the stock looks roughly 167.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$20.91 per share, and 1 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$32.56 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$10.35, and 12 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: HK$12.16 (bear) to HK$12.84 (bull), the price of HK$32.56 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

GDS Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 11.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 7.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was 950M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$53.5B (≈ $6.8B) · P/E ratio 17.9 · P/S ratio 1.49 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.45 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 8.3% · Return on equity 10.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 53% fair-value upside, at −63%, 9698 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$12.16 Fair Value HK$12.16 Bull HK$12.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$1.07 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$12.39 HK$11.96 HK$10.12 76
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.3000 HK$0.5100 HK$0.6200 67
Growth-Adj P/E HK$14.64 HK$20.91 HK$27.18 67
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$4.14 HK$28.88 HK$40.53 63
Lynch FV HK$9.82 HK$14.03 HK$18.24 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$9.82 HK$14.03 HK$18.24 57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.3000 HK$0.5900 HK$0.9000 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.3000 HK$0.5100 HK$0.6200 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$12.79 HK$17.05 HK$21.31 63
P/S Multiple HK$7.76 HK$10.35 HK$12.94 58
P/B Multiple HK$7.76 HK$10.35 HK$12.94 55
EV/EBIT HK$3.79 HK$9.58 HK$15.37 61
EV/EBITDA HK$28.61 HK$42.68 HK$56.75 66
EV/Revenue n/a n/a HK$2.72 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$8.61 HK$11.54 HK$17.22 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$12.39 HK$11.96 HK$10.12 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$14.64 HK$20.91 HK$27.18 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 27
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 21
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +32.2% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.7% (2020) → 13.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

9698 screens 168% overvalued. Compare with International Business Machines Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 493 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −62.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10.0% · Above median
Return on assets 1.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 23.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 27.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 23.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.32× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.70× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.79× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 12.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.96× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 30
PAST (return on equity)40 · sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)34 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)2 · sector 44

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
International Business Machines Corporation IBM $227.06 $186.56 −18%
Accenture plc ACN $176.11 $305.06 +73%
Tata Consultancy Services Limited TCS ₹2,082 ₹2,993 +44%
Infosys Limited INFY ₹1,000 ₹1,689 +69%
HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH ₹1,258 ₹1,926 +53%
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation CTSH $57.33 $138.62 +142%
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc BR $163.77 $159.88 −2%
Fidelity National Information Services, Inc FIS $35.41 $32.72 −8%
Wipro Limited WIPRO ₹164.02 ₹287.86 +76%
CDW Corporation CDW $135.43 $165.54 +22%

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GDS Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$12.16 −168%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GDS Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9698

Frequently asked questions

Is GDS Holdings Ltd (9698) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$12.16 versus a price of HK$32.56, about −63% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9698?
Our model-based fair value for GDS Holdings Ltd is HK$12.16 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$32.56.
What is the quality score of 9698?
GDS Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GDS Holdings Ltd (9698)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$12.16 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$12.16, optimistic scenario HK$12.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GDS Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$12.16, about −63% upside versus a price of HK$32.56 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$12.16, optimistic scenario HK$12.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GDS Holdings Ltd (9698)?
GDS Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does GDS Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
GDS Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.11% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of GDS Holdings Ltd (9698)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GDS Holdings Ltd it is HK$12.16 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$32.56. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GDS Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 9698 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$32.56, fair value HK$12.16, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9698?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$32.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$12.16). For GDS Holdings Ltd the two are HK$20.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GDS Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values GDS Holdings Ltd at about HK$53.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$32.56; our models calculate a fair value of HK$12.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9698?
Our models span a range for GDS Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$12.16, base HK$12.16, optimistic HK$12.84 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$32.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9698?
GDS Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$12.16 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 73.6 (reported for FY2025: 45.5). Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.7, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 12.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 9698?
The PEG ratio of GDS Holdings Ltd is 0.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of GDS Holdings Ltd (9698)?
Balance-sheet figures for GDS Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 10.0%, debt of 1.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9698 from its 52-week high?
GDS Holdings Ltd trades at HK$32.56, about 29% below its 52-week high of HK$46.00 and 17% above the low of HK$27.86 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$12.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GDS Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GDS Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$32.56, calculated fair value HK$12.16 (−63%), Quality Score 39/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9698 calculated?
We run GDS Holdings Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$12.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. GDS Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GDS Holdings Ltd (9698)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was HK$32.56. Our model-based fair value is HK$12.16, about −63% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GDS Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$12.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band (HK$12.16 to HK$12.84), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of GDS Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of GDS Holdings Ltd (9698)?
The market capitalisation of GDS Holdings Ltd is HK$53.5B (≈ $6.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GDS Holdings Ltd (9698)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GDS Holdings Ltd is 1.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GDS Holdings Ltd (9698)?
Earnings per share at GDS Holdings Ltd are HK$1.45 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of GDS Holdings Ltd (9698)?
The dividend yield of GDS Holdings Ltd is 0.1% (payout 2.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of GDS Holdings Ltd (9698)?
The net margin of GDS Holdings Ltd is 8.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GDS Holdings Ltd (9698)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GDS Holdings Ltd is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GDS Holdings Ltd (9698)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GDS Holdings Ltd is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GDS Holdings Ltd (9698)?
The operating margin of GDS Holdings Ltd is 27.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GDS Holdings Ltd (9698)?
Revenue at GDS Holdings Ltd is growing +23.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GDS Holdings Ltd (9698)?
Earnings per share at GDS Holdings Ltd are growing +207% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does GDS Holdings Ltd (9698) generate?
The free cash flow of GDS Holdings Ltd is −1.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does GDS Holdings Ltd (9698) carry?
The net debt of GDS Holdings Ltd is 33.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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