Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited $0.27, price $0.75, upside -64.0%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1684 – $1.04 · fair‑value band $0.1800 – $0.3400 · the $0.7500 price screens above the $0.2700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Ainsworth Game Technology Limited designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and distributes gaming content and platforms, including electronic gaming machines, and other related equipment and services. The company also offers online real-money and social games.
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Ainsworth Game Technology Limited designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and distributes gaming content and platforms, including electronic gaming machines, and other related equipment and services. The company also offers online real-money and social games. It operates in Australia, the Asia Pacific, North America, Latin America, Europe, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Newington, Australia. Ainsworth Game Technology Limited is a subsidiary of Novomatic AG.
Stock analysis
Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF) currently trades at $0.7500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2700, 64.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.1800 (bear) to $0.3400 (bull), the price of $0.7500 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ainsworth Game Technology Limited reported revenue of A$231M in FY2025 versus A$167M in FY2021, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was −A$19.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $337M · P/S ratio 1.16 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0400 · Net margin −8.3% · Return on equity −5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.1% · Operating margin −0.5% · Revenue (TTM) A$291M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at −64%, AINSF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.1800Fair Value $0.2700Bull $0.3400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.1% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−29.1% (2020) → −29.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Ainsworth Game Technology Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 50 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−63.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−6.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−0.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.02× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.16× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA9.2× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 53
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 68
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ainsworth Game Technology Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AINSF
Frequently asked questions
Is Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2700 versus a price of $0.7500, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AINSF?
Our model-based fair value for Ainsworth Game Technology Limited is $0.2700 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.7500.
What is the quality score of AINSF?
Ainsworth Game Technology Limited has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2700 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1800, optimistic scenario $0.3400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ainsworth Game Technology Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2700, about −64% upside versus a price of $0.7500 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.1800, optimistic scenario $0.3400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF)?
Ainsworth Game Technology Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$291M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ainsworth Game Technology Limited it is $0.2700 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.7500. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ainsworth Game Technology Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AINSF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.7500, fair value $0.2700, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AINSF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.7500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2700). For Ainsworth Game Technology Limited the two are $0.4800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ainsworth Game Technology Limited worth?
The market values Ainsworth Game Technology Limited at about $337M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.7500; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AINSF?
Our models span a range for Ainsworth Game Technology Limited: cautious scenario $0.1800, base $0.2700, optimistic $0.3400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.7500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −5.6%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AINSF from its 52-week high?
Ainsworth Game Technology Limited trades at $0.7500, about 28% below its 52-week high of $1.04 and 19% above the low of $0.6300 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ainsworth Game Technology Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Evolution AB, Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Lottomatica Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ainsworth Game Technology Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.7500, calculated fair value $0.2700 (−64%), Quality Score 49/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AINSF calculated?
We run Ainsworth Game Technology Limited through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ainsworth Game Technology Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.7500. Our model-based fair value is $0.2700, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ainsworth Game Technology Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.3400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.1800 to $0.3400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF)?
The market capitalisation of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited is $337M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited is 1.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF)?
Earnings per share at Ainsworth Game Technology Limited are $−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF)?
The net margin of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited is −8.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited is −5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited is −12.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF)?
The operating margin of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited is −0.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF)?
Revenue at Ainsworth Game Technology Limited is growing −2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF)?
Earnings per share at Ainsworth Game Technology Limited are growing −75.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF) generate?
The free cash flow of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited is −A$17.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ainsworth Game Technology Limited (AINSF) carry?
The net debt of Ainsworth Game Technology Limited is A$11.8M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026