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Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Aristocrat Leisure Limited $42.42, price $43.60, upside -2.7%, quality 83 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Aristocrat Leisure Limited
ARLUF · USQuality WatchlistQuality growthA strong company, but the current price is close to Fair Value.
·Fair value $42.42 · Fairly valued (−2.7%)
✓Quality 83/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 23.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.3% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 83/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.44 – $48.11 · fair‑value band $25.31 – $59.48 · the $43.60 price screens above the $42.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Aristocrat Leisure Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming content and technology company in Australia and internationally. It operates through three segments: Aristocrat Gaming, Product Madness, and Aristocrat Interactive.
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Aristocrat Leisure Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming content and technology company in Australia and internationally. It operates through three segments: Aristocrat Gaming, Product Madness, and Aristocrat Interactive. The company designs, develops, assembles, distributes, sells, and services gaming content, platforms, and systems, including electronic gaming machines, casino management systems, and iLottery and free-to-play mobile games. It also offers product madness, a publisher in the social casino genre of free-to-play mobile games; aristocrat gaming, a regulated land-based gaming; and Aristocrat Interactive, a regulated online real money gaming. Aristocrat Leisure Limited was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in North Ryde, Australia.
Stock analysis
Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF) currently trades at $43.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.42, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $37.61 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the $43.60 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.07, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $25.31 (bear) to $59.48 (bull), the price of $43.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 83/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Aristocrat Leisure Limited reported revenue of A$6.3B in FY2025 versus A$4.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.6B in FY2025, compounding +18.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $27.3B · P/E ratio 26.0 · P/S ratio 6.76 · EPS (TTM) $1.68 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 26.0% · Return on equity 22.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at −3%, ARLUF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $25.31
Fair Value $42.42
Bull $59.48
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6900 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$22.71
$41.99
$75.92
77
Growth DCF
$22.49
$40.05
$70.06
76
5Y EBITDA Exit
$18.34
$32.03
$49.14
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$22.71
$41.99
$75.92
77
Owner Earnings
$23.61
$43.64
$78.90
73
5Y Revenue Exit
$11.10
$16.97
$24.48
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$18.34
$32.03
$49.14
74
5Y P/E Exit
$26.68
$49.36
$75.57
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$14.58
$21.51
$31.36
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$19.62
$32.61
$52.18
67
10Y P/E Exit
$25.16
$45.37
$74.49
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$12.87
$61.47
$84.59
64
Lynch FV
$16.37
$23.39
$30.41
61
PEG = 1.0
$16.37
$23.39
$30.41
57
EPV
$7.84
$9.21
$10.40
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$3.77
$7.84
$12.43
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$3.77
$6.61
$8.23
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$31.22
$41.63
$52.04
63
P/S Multiple
$6.54
$8.72
$10.90
58
P/B Multiple
$22.69
$30.26
$37.82
55
EV/EBIT
$21.15
$28.33
$35.50
66
EV/EBITDA
$17.65
$23.65
$29.66
67
EV/Revenue
$5.73
$8.34
$10.96
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$3.78
$5.07
$7.56
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$22.49
$40.05
$70.06
76
Rev-Margin DCF
$11.10
$17.09
$24.95
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$11.69
$16.49
$33.36
71
ROIC Compounder
$7.99
$11.03
$14.49
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$26.33
$37.61
$48.89
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
83/100
Of which business quality 78 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Profitability
77
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
53
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
74/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.9% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.4% vs 20.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 22%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.1% a year for the price and −1.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+0.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+0.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.3%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 47 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Gambling
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Frequently asked questions
Is Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $42.42 versus a price of $43.60, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ARLUF?
Our model-based fair value for Aristocrat Leisure Limited is $42.42 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $43.60.
What is the quality score of ARLUF?
Aristocrat Leisure Limited has a Quality Score of 83/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $42.42 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $25.31, optimistic scenario $59.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aristocrat Leisure Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $42.42, about −3% upside versus a price of $43.60 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $25.31, optimistic scenario $59.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
Aristocrat Leisure Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$6.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Aristocrat Leisure Limited pay a dividend?
Aristocrat Leisure Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.27% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aristocrat Leisure Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +10.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.8 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARLUF use?
Our models discount Aristocrat Leisure Limited at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aristocrat Leisure Limited that is +10.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aristocrat Leisure Limited grew +8.8 % a year. The price currently implies +10.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aristocrat Leisure Limited (+10.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.75 %: that much free cash flow Aristocrat Leisure Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aristocrat Leisure Limited it is $42.42 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $43.60. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aristocrat Leisure Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, ARLUF trades above its calculated fair value: price $43.60, fair value $42.42, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARLUF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($43.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($42.42). For Aristocrat Leisure Limited the two are $1.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aristocrat Leisure Limited worth?
The market values Aristocrat Leisure Limited at about $27.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $43.60; our models calculate a fair value of $42.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARLUF?
Our models span a range for Aristocrat Leisure Limited: cautious scenario $25.31, base $42.42, optimistic $59.48 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $43.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARLUF?
Aristocrat Leisure Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.0 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $42.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.7, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 10.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aristocrat Leisure Limited (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 22.0%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 83/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARLUF from its 52-week high?
Aristocrat Leisure Limited trades at $43.60, about 7% below its 52-week high of $46.98 and 44% above the low of $30.24 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $42.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aristocrat Leisure Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Evolution AB, Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Lottomatica Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aristocrat Leisure Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $43.60, calculated fair value $42.42 (−3%), Quality Score 83/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARLUF calculated?
We run Aristocrat Leisure Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $42.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Aristocrat Leisure Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $43.60. Our model-based fair value is $42.42, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aristocrat Leisure Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($25.31 to $59.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF) come from?
Earnings per share at Aristocrat Leisure Limited grew +22.1 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.7 %, EBIT margin +0.0 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aristocrat Leisure Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
The market capitalisation of Aristocrat Leisure Limited is $27.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aristocrat Leisure Limited is 6.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
Earnings per share at Aristocrat Leisure Limited are $1.68 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
The dividend yield of Aristocrat Leisure Limited is 2.3% (payout 58.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
The net margin of Aristocrat Leisure Limited is 26.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aristocrat Leisure Limited is 22.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aristocrat Leisure Limited is 14.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
The operating margin of Aristocrat Leisure Limited is 28.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
Revenue at Aristocrat Leisure Limited is growing −0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF)?
Earnings per share at Aristocrat Leisure Limited are growing −15.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ARLUF) carry?
The net debt of Aristocrat Leisure Limited is A$748M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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