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Evolution AB (EVGGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Evolution AB $203, price $78.50, upside +158.6%, quality 80 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Evolution AB
EVGGF · USStrongly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside with high Quality.
✓Fair value $202.96 · Strongly undervalued (+158.6%)
✓Quality 80/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +29.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 51.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 90/100
!The models disagree: range $103.74 to $375.11
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $29.19 – $186.70 · fair‑value band $103.74 – $375.11 · the $78.50 price screens below the $202.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Evolution AB (publ) develops, produces, markets, and licenses live casino and slots solutions to gaming operators in Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America, and internationally.
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Evolution AB (publ) develops, produces, markets, and licenses live casino and slots solutions to gaming operators in Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America, and internationally. It offers casino and live games shows under the Evolution and Ezugi brands; online casino under the NetEnt brand name; and casino games and software comprising jackpot system, a smart spins bonus management application, and tournaments gamification under the Red Tiger brand. It also provides slots titles and game mechanics under the Big Time Gaming brand; online casino platform and games under the Nolimit City brand name; HD spinning gaming wheels under the DigiWheel brand; and B2B social streaming games under the Livespins brand name. The company was formerly known as Evolution Gaming Group AB (publ). Evolution AB (publ) was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Evolution AB (EVGGF) currently trades at $78.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $202.96, implying the stock looks roughly 61.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $288.54 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the $78.50 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $59.20, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $103.74 (bear) to $375.11 (bull), the price of $78.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Evolution AB reported revenue of €2.1B in FY2025 versus €1.1B in FY2021, a compound +17.9%/yr. Reported net income was €1.1B in FY2025, compounding +15.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $15.9B · P/E ratio 12.9 · P/S ratio 6.75 · EPS (TTM) $6.09 · Net margin 52.4% · Return on equity 25.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.8% · Operating margin 57.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 159%, EVGGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $103.74
Fair Value $202.96
Bull $375.11
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.61 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV
$60.48
$69.78
$77.92
74
FCF DCF
$122.31
$189.77
$404.60
73
Growth DCF
$115.32
$224.28
$402.83
73
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$122.31
$189.77
$404.60
73
Owner Earnings
$111.35
$247.43
$533.10
68
5Y Revenue Exit
$44.94
$58.91
$86.88
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$90.25
$150.55
$268.57
70
5Y P/E Exit
$114.27
$247.59
$428.94
65
10Y Revenue Exit
$67.61
$107.02
$120.85
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$101.13
$204.60
$380.21
63
10Y P/E Exit
$118.66
$256.32
$481.86
58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$42.23
$294.52
$413.31
61
Lynch FV
$152.16
$217.37
$282.58
59
PEG = 1.0
$152.16
$217.37
$282.58
55
EPV
$60.48
$69.78
$77.92
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$102.47
$136.63
$170.79
63
P/S Multiple
$10.67
$14.23
$17.78
58
P/B Multiple
$69.95
$93.27
$116.58
55
EV/EBIT
$98.05
$129.18
$160.30
66
EV/EBITDA
$75.35
$98.91
$122.46
67
EV/Revenue
$14.64
$18.90
$23.17
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$11.66
$15.62
$23.32
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$115.32
$224.28
$402.83
73
Rev-Margin DCF
$48.19
$64.89
$99.08
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$41.29
$59.20
$130.14
68
ROIC Compounder
$79.58
$122.99
$176.20
68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$201.98
$288.54
$375.11
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
80/100
Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Profitability
76
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
86
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
90
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
58
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
47
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +39.1% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
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’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+28.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.28.8% vs 47.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.53% → 58%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.0% a year for the price and +2.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+2.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.9%
Watch EVGGF, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (52 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- Evolution (OM:EVO) Offer Has Become Unconditional
- Evolution AB (EVVTY) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic ...
- Evolution AB GAAP EPS of €1.26, revenue of €513.04M
- Evolution Earnings Decline In Q1
Compare Evolution AB with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Gambling
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Frequently asked questions
Is Evolution AB (EVGGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $202.96 versus a price of $78.50, about +159% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EVGGF?
Our model-based fair value for Evolution AB is $202.96 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $78.50.
What is the quality score of EVGGF?
Evolution AB has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Evolution AB (EVGGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $202.96 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $103.74, optimistic scenario $375.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Evolution AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $202.96, about +159% upside versus a price of $78.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $103.74, optimistic scenario $375.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Evolution AB (EVGGF)?
Evolution AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Evolution AB (EVGGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Evolution AB would have to grow free cash flow by -4.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +29.8 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EVGGF use?
Our models discount Evolution AB at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Evolution AB that is -4.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Evolution AB (EVGGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Evolution AB grew +29.8 % a year. The price currently implies -4.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Evolution AB (EVGGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Evolution AB (-4.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Evolution AB (EVGGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.58 %: that much free cash flow Evolution AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Evolution AB (EVGGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Evolution AB it is $202.96 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $78.50. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Evolution AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, EVGGF trades below its calculated fair value: price $78.50, fair value $202.96, a gap of about +159% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EVGGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($78.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($202.96). For Evolution AB the two are $124.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Evolution AB worth?
The market values Evolution AB at about $15.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $78.50; our models calculate a fair value of $202.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EVGGF?
Our models span a range for Evolution AB: cautious scenario $103.74, base $202.96, optimistic $375.11 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $78.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is EVGGF from its 52-week high?
Evolution AB trades at $78.50, about 14% below its 52-week high of $91.29 and 38% above the low of $56.75 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $202.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Evolution AB?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Lottomatica Group, Super Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Evolution AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $78.50, calculated fair value $202.96 (+159%), Quality Score 80/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EVGGF calculated?
We run Evolution AB through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $202.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Evolution AB currently trades 61 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Evolution AB (EVGGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $78.50. Our model-based fair value is $202.96, about +159% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Evolution AB right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (80/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($103.74). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($103.74 to $375.11). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Evolution AB (EVGGF) come from?
Earnings per share at Evolution AB grew +52.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +40.2 %, EBIT margin +9.2 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Evolution AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Evolution AB (EVGGF)?
The market capitalisation of Evolution AB is $15.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Evolution AB (EVGGF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Evolution AB is 12.9. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Evolution AB (EVGGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Evolution AB is 6.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Evolution AB (EVGGF)?
Earnings per share at Evolution AB are $6.09 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Evolution AB (EVGGF)?
The net margin of Evolution AB is 52.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Evolution AB (EVGGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Evolution AB is 25.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Evolution AB (EVGGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Evolution AB is 21.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Evolution AB (EVGGF)?
The operating margin of Evolution AB is 57.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Evolution AB (EVGGF)?
Revenue at Evolution AB is growing −1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Evolution AB (EVGGF)?
Earnings per share at Evolution AB are growing +1.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Evolution AB (EVGGF) hold?
Evolution AB holds more cash than debt, €724M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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