Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Awilco LNG ASA NOK 3.71, price NOK 3.30, upside +12.4%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 1.32 – kr 7.97 · fair‑value band kr 2.77 – kr 5.54 · the kr 3.30 price screens below the kr 3.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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ALNG ASA, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels in Norway. The company owns two 156,000 cbm TFDE membrane LNG vessels. It also provides technical management services. The company was formerly known as Awilco LNG ASA and changed its name to ALNG ASA in June 2026.
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ALNG ASA, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels in Norway. The company owns two 156,000 cbm TFDE membrane LNG vessels. It also provides technical management services. The company was formerly known as Awilco LNG ASA and changed its name to ALNG ASA in June 2026. ALNG ASA was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Oslo, Norway.
Stock analysis
Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG) currently trades at kr 3.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 3.71, implying the stock looks roughly 11.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of kr 8.03 per share, and 5 of the 8 models we run sit above the kr 3.30 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at kr 0.6100, and 3 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 2.77 (bear) to kr 5.54 (bull), the price of kr 3.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Awilco LNG ASA reported revenue of $41.6M in FY2025 versus $59.6M in FY2021, a compound −8.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$11.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 723M NOK (≈ $75.2M) · P/S ratio 19.1 · EPS (TTM) kr −0.9900 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin −26.9% · Return on equity −12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2% · Operating margin −43.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 12%, ALNG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 2.77Fair Value kr 3.71Bull kr 5.54
Price kr 3.30 · Upside +12.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.35/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−38.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.1% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
17.5% (2020) → 2.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 85 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+12.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−46.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−43.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−19.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
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Is Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 3.71 versus a price of kr 3.30, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALNG?
Our model-based fair value for Awilco LNG ASA is kr 3.71 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 3.30.
What is the quality score of ALNG?
Awilco LNG ASA has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 3.71 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 2.77, optimistic scenario kr 5.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Awilco LNG ASA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 3.71, about +12% upside versus a price of kr 3.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 2.77, optimistic scenario kr 5.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
Awilco LNG ASA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $37.8M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Awilco LNG ASA pay a dividend?
Awilco LNG ASA currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.40% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Awilco LNG ASA would have to grow free cash flow by +22.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.1 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALNG use?
Our models discount Awilco LNG ASA at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Norway. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Awilco LNG ASA that is +22.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Awilco LNG ASA grew +3.1 % a year. The price currently implies +22.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Awilco LNG ASA (+22.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 37.81 %: that much free cash flow Awilco LNG ASA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Awilco LNG ASA it is kr 3.71 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of kr 3.30. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Awilco LNG ASA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, ALNG trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 3.30, fair value kr 3.71, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALNG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 3.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 3.71). For Awilco LNG ASA the two are kr 0.4100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Awilco LNG ASA worth?
The market values Awilco LNG ASA at about 723M NOK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is kr 3.30; our models calculate a fair value of kr 3.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALNG?
Our models span a range for Awilco LNG ASA: cautious scenario kr 2.77, base kr 3.71, optimistic kr 5.54 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price kr 3.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Awilco LNG ASA (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −12.9%, debt of 1.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALNG from its 52-week high?
Awilco LNG ASA trades at kr 3.30, about 34% below its 52-week high of kr 5.00 and 29% above the low of kr 2.56 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 3.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Awilco LNG ASA?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Energy Transfer LP,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Awilco LNG ASA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price kr 3.30, calculated fair value kr 3.71 (+12%), Quality Score 48/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALNG calculated?
We run Awilco LNG ASA through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 3.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Awilco LNG ASA currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 3.30. Our model-based fair value is kr 3.71, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Awilco LNG ASA right now?
A fairly wide model range (kr 2.77 to kr 5.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Awilco LNG ASA
How large is the market capitalisation of Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
The market capitalisation of Awilco LNG ASA is 723M NOK (≈ $75.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Awilco LNG ASA is 19.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
Earnings per share at Awilco LNG ASA are kr −0.9900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
The dividend yield of Awilco LNG ASA is 3.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
The net margin of Awilco LNG ASA is −26.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Awilco LNG ASA is −12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Awilco LNG ASA is 8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
The operating margin of Awilco LNG ASA is −43.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
Revenue at Awilco LNG ASA is growing −19.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG)?
Earnings per share at Awilco LNG ASA are growing −90.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Awilco LNG ASA (ALNG) carry?
The net debt of Awilco LNG ASA is $213M (fiscal year 2020, ≈ 12.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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