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Alithya Group (ALYAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alithya Group $0.78, price $0.78, upside +0.0%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Technology · US · Home Canada · ISIN CA01643B1067

AG Alithya Group logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Alithya Group

ALYAF · US

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value $0.7800 · Fairly valued (+0.0%)
!Quality 59/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +10.5 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -8.1% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 0.3%
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 20/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$3.24 $0.6869 Fair Value $0.7800 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.6869 – $3.24 · fair‑value band $0.7800 – $0.9200 · the $0.7800 price screens below the $0.7800 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Alithya Group Inc. provides information technology services and solutions through digital technologies in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company offers strategic consulting, enterprise transformation, and business enablement services.

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Alithya Group Inc. provides information technology services and solutions through digital technologies in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company offers strategic consulting, enterprise transformation, and business enablement services. It also provides advisory services for digital strategy, organization performance, cybersecurity, enterprise architecture, and change and program management. In addition, the company offers enterprise resource planning, supply chain management, enterprise performance management, customer relationship management, cloud infrastructure, custom application development, legacy systems modernization, control/software engineering, data and analytics, machine learning and artificial intelligence, human capital management, and intelligent document processing services. Further, it provides digital adoption, training, managed, change enablement, and quality engineering services. Additionally, the company offers AI-FI, an integrated artificial intelligence and fidelity solution; Alithya Rapid QA, an automated and manual testing tool for software solutions; Alithya Adaptive Learning, a platform for on-demand training for enterprise applications; CASSI analytics, a solution for nuclear plants to generate and distribute maintenance performance reports; and SIDER, a secure integrated system to distribute electronic medical results. It serves financial services, energy, manufacturing, telecommunications, transportation and logistics, higher education services, healthcare, government, and other sectors. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Montreal, Canada.

Stock analysis

Alithya Group (ALYAF) currently trades at $0.7800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.7800, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.0%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $2.21 per share, and 13 of the 22 models we run sit above the $0.7800 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.0800, and 9 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $0.7800 (bear) to $0.9200 (bull), the price of $0.7800 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Alithya Group reported revenue of C$473M in FY2025 versus C$438M in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$1.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $75.1M · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) $−0.2900 · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity −23.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.1% · Operating margin 5.4% · Revenue (TTM) C$477M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at 0%, ALYAF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.7800 Fair Value $0.7800 Bull $0.9200
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $2.86 $4.47 $6.57 80
Growth DCF $2.84 $4.32 $6.14 78
Residual Income $0.8800 $0.7800 $0.7200 76
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $2.86 $4.47 $6.57 80
Owner Earnings $1.26 $2.16 $3.34 75
5Y Revenue Exit $1.29 $1.96 $2.75 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $2.75 $4.76 $7.12 74
5Y P/E Exit $0.9000 $1.20 $1.48 72
10Y Revenue Exit $1.92 $2.67 $3.59 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $2.75 $4.36 $6.51 68
10Y P/E Exit $1.72 $2.21 $2.74 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.0700 $0.2500 $0.3300 64
Lynch FV $0.0600 $0.0800 $0.1100 61
PEG = 1.0 $0.0600 $0.0800 $0.1100 57
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.2100 $0.2800 $0.3600 63
P/S Multiple $0.1300 $0.1700 $0.2200 58
P/B Multiple $0.1300 $0.1700 $0.2200 55
EV/EBIT $1.07 $1.68 $2.29 64
EV/EBITDA $3.10 $4.39 $5.67 67
EV/Revenue $0.1700 $0.5600 $0.9600 49
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.7200 $0.9700 $1.45 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $2.84 $4.32 $6.14 78
Rev-Margin DCF $1.29 $2.03 $2.92 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $0.8800 $0.7800 $0.7200 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $0.1300 $0.1900 $0.2500 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 30
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 25
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 88
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.2% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5.9% (2020) → 2.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.4% a year for the price and −0.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+0.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+0.7%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+2.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.6%

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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Similar stocks

10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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International Business Machines Corporation IBM $219.93 $186.56 −15%
Accenture plc ACN $183.37 $305.06 +66%
Tata Consultancy Services Limited TCS ₹2,082 ₹2,993 +44%
Infosys Limited INFY ₹994.10 ₹1,691 +70%
HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH ₹1,243 ₹1,926 +55%
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation CTSH $56.84 $138.62 +144%
Amadeus IT Group AMS €52.80 €65.98 +25%
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc BR $161.15 $159.88 −1%
Fidelity National Information Services, Inc FIS $33.35 $32.72 −2%
CDW Corporation CDW $129.71 $165.54 +28%

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Alithya Group · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alithya Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALYAF

Frequently asked questions

Is Alithya Group (ALYAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.7800 versus a price of $0.7800, about +0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ALYAF?
Our model-based fair value for Alithya Group is $0.7800 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.7800.
What is the quality score of ALYAF?
Alithya Group has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alithya Group (ALYAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.7800 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7800, optimistic scenario $0.9200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alithya Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.7800, about +0% upside versus a price of $0.7800 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $0.7800, optimistic scenario $0.9200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alithya Group (ALYAF)?
Alithya Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$477M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alithya Group (ALYAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alithya Group would have to grow free cash flow by -12.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALYAF use?
Our models discount Alithya Group at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alithya Group that is -12.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alithya Group (ALYAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alithya Group grew +10.5 % a year. The price currently implies -12.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alithya Group (ALYAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +13.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alithya Group (-12.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alithya Group (ALYAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 43.91 %: that much free cash flow Alithya Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alithya Group (ALYAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alithya Group it is $0.7800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.7800. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alithya Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALYAF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.7800, fair value $0.7800, a gap of about +0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALYAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.7800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.7800). For Alithya Group the two are $0.0000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alithya Group worth?
The market values Alithya Group at about $75.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.7800; our models calculate a fair value of $0.7800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALYAF?
Our models span a range for Alithya Group: cautious scenario $0.7800, base $0.7800, optimistic $0.9200 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.7800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is ALYAF from its 52-week high?
Alithya Group trades at $0.7800, about 50% below its 52-week high of $1.55 and 14% above the low of $0.6869 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.7800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alithya Group?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alithya Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.7800, calculated fair value $0.7800 (+0%), Quality Score 59/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALYAF calculated?
We run Alithya Group through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.7800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alithya Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alithya Group (ALYAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.7800. Our model-based fair value is $0.7800, about +0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alithya Group right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Key figures of Alithya Group

How large is the market capitalisation of Alithya Group (ALYAF)?
The market capitalisation of Alithya Group is $75.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alithya Group (ALYAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alithya Group is 0.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alithya Group (ALYAF)?
Earnings per share at Alithya Group are $−0.2900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alithya Group (ALYAF)?
The net margin of Alithya Group is 0.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alithya Group (ALYAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alithya Group is −23.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alithya Group (ALYAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alithya Group is −1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alithya Group (ALYAF)?
The operating margin of Alithya Group is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alithya Group (ALYAF)?
Revenue at Alithya Group is growing −9.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alithya Group (ALYAF)?
Earnings per share at Alithya Group are growing +243% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alithya Group (ALYAF) carry?
The net debt of Alithya Group is C$103M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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