Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Arrow Electronics Inc stock $107, price $203, that is 47.3% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $90.32 – $242.01 · fair‑value band $85.09 – $164.44 · the $202.63 price screens above the $106.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Arrow Electronics, Inc. sources and engineers technology for manufacturers, service providers, and users of enterprise computing solutions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates in two segments, Global Components and Global Enterprise Computing Solutions.
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The Global Components segment markets and distributes electronic components, including semiconductor products and related services; interconnect, passive, and electromechanical products comprising capacitors, resistors, potentiometers, power supplies, relays, switches, and connectors; and computing and memory products, as well as other products and services.
Its Global Enterprise Computing Solutions segment offers computing solutions, such as datacenter, cloud, security, and analytics solutions, as well as engineering and integration support, warehousing and logistics, marketing resources, and authorized hardware and software training services.
The company serves original equipment manufacturers, value-added resellers, managed service providers, contract manufacturers, and other commercial customers. Arrow Electronics, Inc. was founded in 1935 and is based in Centennial, Colorado.
Stock analysis
Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW) currently trades at $202.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $106.88, 47% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $276.88 per share, and 5 of the 15 models we run sit above the $202.63 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $62.21, and 10 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $85.09 (bear) to $164.44 (bull), the price of $202.63 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Arrow Electronics Inc reported revenue of $30.9B in FY2025 versus $34.5B in FY2021, a compound −2.7%/yr. Reported net income was $571M in FY2025, compounding −15.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $10.5B Large · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) $15.64 · Net margin 2.3% · Return on equity 12.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2% · Operating margin 4.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 99% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −47%, ARW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$85.09Fair Value $106.88Bull$164.44
Price $202.63 · Downside -47.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($13.28 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $10.8M and none bought.
SaleCarine Lamercie Jean-ClaudeSVP, CLCO and Secretary4× since Feb 11, 2026: 12,078 shares, avg. $176.93$2.1MSep 3, 2026
SaleGretchen ZechSVP, Chief Gov, Sust, HR Offr3× since May 21, 2026: 41,531 shares, avg. $220.71$9.2MJun 2, 2026
SaleEric NowakPresident, Global ECS2× since Feb 11, 2026: 16,172 shares, avg. $168.67$2.7MMay 20, 2026
BuyWilliam F. AustenInterim President and CEO, Director3,960 shares at $151.87$601,405Feb 19, 2026
SaleRichard John MaranoPresident, Global Components2,500 shares at $155.32$388,300Feb 17, 2026
SaleAndrew Charles KerinDirector1,456 shares at $157.27$229,059Feb 11, 2026
Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.33/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+3.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.6% vs 7.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 3%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Expanded AI infrastructure distribution in the ECS segment strengthens the revenue mix while limited moat, thin margins and weak cash conversion constrain the electronics distribution model.
Main risk: Hyperscalers and vendors expanding direct cloud marketplaces might bypass traditional distributors like Arrow, reducing its role in sourcing and provisioning for customers in the ECS segment.
Bull case: Arrow could deepen its supply chain services and digital platforms like ArrowSphere to become indispensable in AI infrastructure provisioning and navigate regulatory or supplier shifts through geographic diversification.
Bear case: If cloud disintermediation accelerates or regulatory restrictions and supplier changes materialize, Arrow might lose significant billings in ECS, face higher costs and see its distribution model become less relevant for customers and vendors.
Arrow Electronics has broadened its HPE distribution rights to cover a full networking portfolio including AI infrastructure products. This adds to its ECS segment exposure where cloud, cybersecurity and AI workloads already drive billings above 6 billion dollars and a sharply higher backlog. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Will the revenue mix shift lift margins enough to justify the valuation or has the growth story already been fully priced in?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronics & Computer Distribution · 150 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−47.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.0% · Above median
Return on assets2.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)31.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.47× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronics & Computer Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)13.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.60× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.29× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA9.0× · Pricier than median
PEG0.95× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 72
PAST (return on equity)48· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)77· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 62
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $106.88 versus a price of $202.63, about 47% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARW?
Our model-based fair value for Arrow Electronics Inc is $106.88 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $202.63.
What is the quality score of ARW?
Arrow Electronics Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $106.88 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $85.09, optimistic scenario $164.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arrow Electronics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $106.88, about 47% lower versus a price of $202.63 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $85.09, optimistic scenario $164.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW)?
Arrow Electronics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $35.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arrow Electronics Inc it is $106.88 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $202.63. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arrow Electronics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, ARW trades above its calculated fair value: price $202.63, fair value $106.88, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($202.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($106.88). For Arrow Electronics Inc the two are $95.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arrow Electronics Inc worth?
The market values Arrow Electronics Inc at about $10.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $202.63; our models calculate a fair value of $106.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARW?
Our models span a range for Arrow Electronics Inc: cautious scenario $85.09, base $106.88, optimistic $164.44 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $202.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARW?
Arrow Electronics Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $106.88 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 10.8. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
What is the PEG ratio of ARW?
The PEG ratio of Arrow Electronics Inc is 0.95 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arrow Electronics Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 12.0%, debt of 0.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARW from its 52-week high?
Arrow Electronics Inc trades at $202.63, about 16% below its 52-week high of $242.01 and 99% above the low of $101.87 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $106.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arrow Electronics Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value TD SYNNEX Corporation, Rexel S.A, Unisplendour Corporation, Avnet, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arrow Electronics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $202.63, calculated fair value $106.88 (−47%), Quality Score 46/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARW calculated?
We run Arrow Electronics Inc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $106.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0% above its aggregate fair value. Arrow Electronics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $202.63. Our model-based fair value is $106.88, about 47% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arrow Electronics Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($164.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($85.09 to $164.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW) come from?
Earnings per share at Arrow Electronics Inc grew +9.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.8 %, EBIT margin −0.1 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Arrow Electronics Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW)?
The market capitalisation of Arrow Electronics Inc is $10.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arrow Electronics Inc is 0.29 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW)?
Earnings per share at Arrow Electronics Inc are $15.64 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW)?
The net margin of Arrow Electronics Inc is 2.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arrow Electronics Inc is 12.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arrow Electronics Inc is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW)?
The operating margin of Arrow Electronics Inc is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW)?
Revenue at Arrow Electronics Inc is growing +31.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW)?
Earnings per share at Arrow Electronics Inc are growing +46.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW) generate?
The free cash flow of Arrow Electronics Inc is −$37.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Arrow Electronics Inc (ARW) carry?
The net debt of Arrow Electronics Inc is $2.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 3, 2026