Qilian International Holding Group Limited (BGM) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $77.9M · ISIN KYG7307E1237

Below-average quality, and trading another 165% above our fair value.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.1200). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.2504 – $23.53 · fair‑value band $0.0900 – $0.1200 · the $0.2917 price screens above the $0.1100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Qilian International Holding Group Limited (BGM) currently trades at $0.2917, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1100, implying the stock looks roughly 62.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $29.9M. Revenue grew 13.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -16.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $9.8M. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.0900 (bear case) to $0.1200 (bull case); at $0.2917, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -62%, BGM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($0.1600) versus Multiples ($0.1100). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

BGM Group Ltd., through its subsidiaries, operates as a pharmaceutical and chemical company in China. It offers oxytetracycline products, including Qilian Shan oxytetracycline tablets to prevent and treat a range of diseases in chickens, turkeys, cattle, swine, and human; and Qilian Shan oxytetracycline active pharmaceutical ingredients, which are used by …

Full company description

BGM Group Ltd., through its subsidiaries, operates as a pharmaceutical and chemical company in China. It offers oxytetracycline products, including Qilian Shan oxytetracycline tablets to prevent and treat a range of diseases in chickens, turkeys, cattle, swine, and human; and Qilian Shan oxytetracycline active pharmaceutical ingredients, which are used by pharmaceutical companies in the manufacturing of medications that use oxytetracycline as an active ingredient. The company also provides licorice products, such as Gan Di Xin, a medicine made from raw licorice materials; Qilian Shan licorice extract, an ingredient for pharmaceutical companies to manufacture traditional licorice tablets; and Qilian Shan licorice liquid extract, an ingredient for medical preparation companies to produce compound licorice oral solutions. In addition, it offers traditional Chinese medicine derivatives products comprising Ahan antibacterial paste that is used to treat refractory chronic skin diseases; heparin products, including heparin sodium preparation, an ingredient for pharmaceutical companies to produce medications used in treating cardiovascular diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and hemodialysis; and sausage casings, such as Zhu Xiaochang sausage casings for culinary purposes. Further, the company provides Fertilizer products comprising Xiongguan organic fertilizers to improve crop yield, increase soil's chemical properties, and reduce soil compaction; and Xiongguan organic-inorganic compound fertilizers for plant growth. Additionally, it focuses on the AI-driven commercialization of DuXiaoBao platform. BGM Group Ltd. is based in Chengdu, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years

Qilian International Holding Group Limited reported revenue of $25.1M in FY2024 versus $50.0M in FY2020, a compound −15.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.4M in FY2024.

BGM screens 62% overvalued. Compare with Merck KGaA →

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 637 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.