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BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of BAIC Motor Corporation $0.61, price $0.09, upside +557.0%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
BAIC Motor Corporation
BMCLF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $0.6110 · Strongly undervalued (+557.0%)
!Quality 50/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −2.0 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -1.1% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 0.1%
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0895 – $0.3797 · the $0.0930 price screens below the $0.6110 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
BAIC Motor Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, sale, and after-sale service of passenger vehicles in the People's Republic of China.
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BAIC Motor Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, sale, and after-sale service of passenger vehicles in the People's Republic of China. It also offers engines, powertrains, power batteries, and other core parts and components for passenger vehicles, as well as range extenders, transmissions, and new energy reducers. In addition, the company is involved in car financing and automobile aftermarket-related activities. It sells its products under the Beijing Brand, Beijing Benz, Beijing Hyundai, and Fujian Benz brand names. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF) currently trades at $0.0930, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6110, implying the stock looks roughly 84.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.8000 per share, and 18 of the 25 models we run sit above the $0.0930 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.2500, and 7 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
BAIC Motor Corporation reported revenue of 160B CNY in FY2025 versus 176B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was 120M CNY in FY2025, compounding −58.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B · Net margin 0.1% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.3% · Operating margin 2.2% · Revenue (TTM) 153B CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) −26.0% · EPS growth (YoY) −10.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 557%, BMCLF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.6110
Fair Value $0.6110
Bull $0.6110
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.6500
$0.8000
$1.03
82
Growth DCF
$0.6500
$0.7800
$0.9600
80
Owner Earnings
$0.5500
$0.6200
$0.7300
78
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.6500
$0.8000
$1.03
82
Owner Earnings
$0.5500
$0.6200
$0.7300
78
5Y Revenue Exit
$1.33
$2.22
$3.47
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$2.18
$3.98
$6.30
73
5Y P/E Exit
$0.5400
$0.5800
$0.6200
72
10Y Revenue Exit
$1.02
$1.74
$2.89
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.58
$2.92
$5.07
66
10Y P/E Exit
$0.5800
$0.6300
$0.6900
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.0200
$0.0700
$0.1000
64
Lynch FV
$0.0200
$0.0300
$0.0400
61
PEG = 1.0
$0.0200
$0.0300
$0.0400
57
EPV
$1.03
$1.11
$1.17
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.1500
$0.2700
$0.3700
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.1500
$0.2500
$0.2900
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.0400
$0.0500
$0.0600
63
P/S Multiple
$0.0300
$0.0400
$0.0500
58
P/B Multiple
$0.0300
$0.0400
$0.0500
55
EV/EBIT
$2.39
$3.04
$3.69
66
EV/EBITDA
$3.31
$4.27
$5.23
67
EV/Revenue
$1.76
$2.32
$2.88
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.5400
$0.7200
$1.08
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.6500
$0.7800
$0.9600
80
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.6800
$0.6200
$0.5700
76
ROIC Compounder
$1.03
$1.13
$1.30
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.0300
$0.0400
$0.0600
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
50/100
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22
Profitability
28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
15
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
4
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−50.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−50.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−50.1% vs −32.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.8% a year for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+1.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+0.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+0.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+0.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.0%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla, Inc TSLA | $354.81 | $40.97 | −88% |
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $183.10 | $211.47 | +15% |
| BYD Company 002594 | ¥83.31 | ¥61.43 | −26% |
| General Motors Company GM | $77.00 | $60.53 | −21% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | $392.85 | $432.14 | +10% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 353,500 KRW | 362,081 KRW | +2% |
| Ford Motor Company F | $12.27 | $12.59 | +3% |
| Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 | €43.00 | €22.09 | −49% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group MBG | €39.73 | €106.67 | +169% |
| Honda Motor Co HMC | $31.62 | $20.31 | −36% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6110 versus a price of $0.0930, about +557% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BMCLF?
Our model-based fair value for BAIC Motor Corporation is $0.6110 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0930.
What is the quality score of BMCLF?
BAIC Motor Corporation has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6110 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BAIC Motor Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6110, about +557% upside versus a price of $0.0930 (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF)?
BAIC Motor Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 153B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BAIC Motor Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BMCLF use?
Our models discount BAIC Motor Corporation at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BAIC Motor Corporation that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BAIC Motor Corporation grew -2.0 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BAIC Motor Corporation (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.13 %: that much free cash flow BAIC Motor Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BAIC Motor Corporation it is $0.6110 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.0930. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BAIC Motor Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BMCLF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.0930, fair value $0.6110, a gap of about +557% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BMCLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0930); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6110). For BAIC Motor Corporation the two are $0.5180 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BAIC Motor Corporation worth?
The market values BAIC Motor Corporation at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.0930; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6110 per share.
How far is BMCLF from its 52-week high?
BAIC Motor Corporation trades at $0.0930, about 66% below its 52-week high of $0.2750 and 4% above the low of $0.0895 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6110 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BAIC Motor Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BAIC Motor Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.0930, calculated fair value $0.6110 (+557%), Quality Score 50/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BMCLF calculated?
We run BAIC Motor Corporation through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6110, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. BAIC Motor Corporation currently trades 85 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.0930. Our model-based fair value is $0.6110, about +557% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BAIC Motor Corporation right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.6110). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of BAIC Motor Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF)?
The market capitalisation of BAIC Motor Corporation is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the net margin of BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF)?
The net margin of BAIC Motor Corporation is 0.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BAIC Motor Corporation is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BAIC Motor Corporation is 11.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF)?
The operating margin of BAIC Motor Corporation is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF)?
Revenue at BAIC Motor Corporation is growing −26.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF)?
Earnings per share at BAIC Motor Corporation are growing −10.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does BAIC Motor Corporation (BMCLF) hold?
BAIC Motor Corporation holds more cash than debt, 6.0B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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