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Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Toyota Motor Corporation MXN 3,438, price MXN 3,371, upside +2.0%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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TM
Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Toyota Motor Corporation
TMN · MXLow PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.
·Fair value 3,438 MXN · Fairly valued (+2.0%)
!Quality 46/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +13.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!2.8% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 41/100
!The models disagree: range 1,897 MXN to 6,476 MXN
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,323 MXN – 4,185 MXN · fair‑value band 1,897 MXN – 6,476 MXN · the 3,371 MXN price screens below the 3,438 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally.
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Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally. The company operates through Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other segments. The company offers subcompact and compact cars; mini-vehicles; mid-size, luxury, sports, and specialty cars; recreational and sport-utility vehicles; pickup trucks; minivans; trucks; and buses. It also develops and sells battery and hybrid electric vehicles and batteries. In addition, the company provides financial services, such as retail financing and leasing, wholesale financing, insurance, and credit cards. Further, it operates GAZOO.com, a web portal for automobile information, as well as engages in telecommunications and other businesses. It offers vehicles under the Toyota and Lexus brand names. Toyota Motor Corporation was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Toyota, Japan.
Stock analysis
Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN) currently trades at 3,371 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3,438 MXN, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 7,454 MXN per share, and 12 of the 23 models we run sit above the 3,371 MXN price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 1,609 MXN, and 11 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 1,897 MXN (bear) to 6,476 MXN (bull), the price of 3,371 MXN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Toyota Motor Corporation reported revenue of ¥50.7T in FY2026 versus ¥31.4T in FY2022, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥3.8T in FY2026, compounding +7.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 3.6T MXN (≈ $199B) · P/E ratio 10.5 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) 319.85 MXN · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 2%, TMN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1,897 MXN
Fair Value 3,438 MXN
Bull 6,476 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (114.58 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
3,409 MXN
3,752 MXN
4,677 MXN
76
EPV
1,199 MXN
1,609 MXN
1,969 MXN
74
Owner Earnings
n/a
542.14 MXN
1,585 MXN
73
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
n/a
542.14 MXN
1,585 MXN
73
5Y Revenue Exit
929.52 MXN
2,826 MXN
5,328 MXN
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
2,000 MXN
4,857 MXN
8,279 MXN
72
5Y P/E Exit
2,462 MXN
5,732 MXN
9,251 MXN
68
10Y Revenue Exit
132.57 MXN
1,704 MXN
3,952 MXN
58
10Y EBITDA Exit
922.59 MXN
3,125 MXN
6,234 MXN
63
10Y P/E Exit
1,218 MXN
3,737 MXN
6,985 MXN
59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
2,555 MXN
8,486 MXN
11,357 MXN
64
Lynch FV
1,920 MXN
2,743 MXN
3,566 MXN
61
PEG = 1.0
1,920 MXN
2,743 MXN
3,566 MXN
57
EPV
1,199 MXN
1,609 MXN
1,969 MXN
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
1,111 MXN
2,309 MXN
3,664 MXN
66
DDM Multi-Stage
1,111 MXN
1,892 MXN
2,424 MXN
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
6,199 MXN
8,266 MXN
10,332 MXN
63
P/S Multiple
4,454 MXN
5,939 MXN
7,423 MXN
58
P/B Multiple
4,790 MXN
6,387 MXN
7,984 MXN
55
EV/EBIT
3,698 MXN
5,353 MXN
7,008 MXN
65
EV/EBITDA
4,146 MXN
5,950 MXN
7,754 MXN
67
EV/Revenue
2,080 MXN
3,515 MXN
4,949 MXN
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
1,949 MXN
2,611 MXN
3,898 MXN
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
3,409 MXN
3,752 MXN
4,677 MXN
76
ROIC Compounder
1,199 MXN
1,609 MXN
1,969 MXN
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
5,218 MXN
7,454 MXN
9,690 MXN
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
46/100
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Profitability
32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
44
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
51
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
89
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+15.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.9% vs 9.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
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Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| Ferrari N.V RACE | $392.85 | $432.14 | +10% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 353,500 KRW | 362,081 KRW | +2% |
| Ford Motor Company F | $12.27 | $12.59 | +3% |
| Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 | €43.00 | €22.09 | −49% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group MBG | €39.73 | €106.67 | +169% |
| Honda Motor Co HMC | $31.62 | $20.31 | −36% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW | €67.80 | €248.34 | +266% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3,438 MXN versus a price of 3,371 MXN, about +2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TMN?
Our model-based fair value for Toyota Motor Corporation is 3,438 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3,371 MXN.
What is the quality score of TMN?
Toyota Motor Corporation has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3,438 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1,897 MXN, optimistic scenario 6,476 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Toyota Motor Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3,438 MXN, about +2% upside versus a price of 3,371 MXN (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 1,897 MXN, optimistic scenario 6,476 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN)?
Toyota Motor Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥50.7T (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Toyota Motor Corporation pay a dividend?
Toyota Motor Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.82% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toyota Motor Corporation it is 3,438 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of 3,371 MXN. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Toyota Motor Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, TMN trades below its calculated fair value: price 3,371 MXN, fair value 3,438 MXN, a gap of about +2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TMN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3,371 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3,438 MXN). For Toyota Motor Corporation the two are 66.79 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Toyota Motor Corporation worth?
The market values Toyota Motor Corporation at about 3.6T MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is 3,371 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 3,438 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TMN?
Our models span a range for Toyota Motor Corporation: cautious scenario 1,897 MXN, base 3,438 MXN, optimistic 6,476 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price 3,371 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is TMN from its 52-week high?
Toyota Motor Corporation trades at 3,371 MXN, about 19% below its 52-week high of 4,185 MXN and 15% above the low of 2,940 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3,438 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Toyota Motor Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, BYD Company, General Motors Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Toyota Motor Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price 3,371 MXN, calculated fair value 3,438 MXN (+2%), Quality Score 46/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TMN calculated?
We run Toyota Motor Corporation through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3,438 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Toyota Motor Corporation currently trades 2 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was 3,371 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 3,438 MXN, about +2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Toyota Motor Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide (1,897 MXN to 6,476 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Toyota Motor Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN)?
The market capitalisation of Toyota Motor Corporation is 3.6T MXN (≈ $199B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Toyota Motor Corporation is 10.5. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Toyota Motor Corporation is 0.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN)?
Earnings per share at Toyota Motor Corporation are 319.85 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN)?
The dividend yield of Toyota Motor Corporation is 2.8% (payout 29.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN)?
The net margin of Toyota Motor Corporation is 7.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Toyota Motor Corporation is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Toyota Motor Corporation is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN)?
The operating margin of Toyota Motor Corporation is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN)?
Revenue at Toyota Motor Corporation is growing +1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN)?
Earnings per share at Toyota Motor Corporation are growing +23.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN) generate?
The free cash flow of Toyota Motor Corporation is ¥180B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN) carry?
The net debt of Toyota Motor Corporation is ¥30.5T (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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