Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · MX · Market cap 3.6T MXN
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from 34,970 MXN to 4,134 MXN (−88.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +0.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 35% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (3,313 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (3,313 MXN to 7,203 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,323 MXN – 4,185 MXN · fair‑value band 3,313 MXN – 7,203 MXN · the 3,052 MXN price screens below the 4,134 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Toyota Motor Corporation (TMN) currently trades at 3,052 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4,134 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 35.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Toyota Motor Corporation generated revenue of 50.7T MXN at a net margin of 7.6%. Revenue grew 1.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. Net debt stands at 30.5T MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 3,313 MXN (bear case) to 7,203 MXN (bull case); at 3,052 MXN, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at 35%, TMN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (64,467 MXN) versus Economic Profit (15,382 MXN). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally.
Full company description
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, the Middle East, and internationally. The company operates through Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other segments. The company offers subcompact and compact cars; mini-vehicles; mid-size, luxury, sports, and specialty cars; recreational and sport-utility vehicles; pickup trucks; minivans; trucks; and buses. It also develops and sells battery and hybrid electric vehicles and batteries. In addition, the company provides financial services, such as retail financing and leasing, wholesale financing, insurance, and credit cards. Further, it operates GAZOO.com, a web portal for automobile information, as well as engages in telecommunications and other businesses. It offers vehicles under the Toyota and Lexus brand names. Toyota Motor Corporation was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Toyota, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Toyota Motor Corporation reported revenue of 50.7T MXN in FY2026 versus 31.4T MXN in FY2022, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was 3.8T MXN in FY2026, compounding +7.8%/yr from FY2022.
Watch TMN: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Top Research Reports for Apple, Shell & Toyota Motor
- Toyota Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates on High Labor Cost & R&D Expenses
- Ryder Recognized by Toyota as "Manufacturing Carrier of the Year"
- Group 1 Automotive Announces Ira Toyota Saco is now Group 1 Toyota Saco
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$80.55 | HK$50.85 | -37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 425,000 KRW | 616,918 KRW | +45% |
| General Motors Company GM | $77.72 | $56.93 | -27% |
| Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N | 1,909 MXN | 2,944 MXN | +54% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | $376.64 | $228.05 | -39% |
| Ford Motor Company F | C$11.86 | C$4.00 | -66% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group BENZ | C$20.44 | C$35.15 | +72% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW | 2,149 CZK | 7,191 CZK | +235% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹13,803 | ₹8,236 | -40% |
| Kia Corporation 000270 | 145,000 KRW | 350,994 KRW | +142% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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