BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of BW LPG Ltd NOK 379, price NOK 252, upside +50.0%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 17.91 – kr 252.40 · fair‑value band kr 244.48 – kr 492.32 · the kr 252.40 price screens below the kr 378.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 6, 2026.
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BW LPG Limited, an investment holding company, engages in ship owning and chartering activities worldwide. It operates through Shipping and Product Services segments.
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BW LPG Limited, an investment holding company, engages in ship owning and chartering activities worldwide. It operates through Shipping and Product Services segments. The company engages in the transportation of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG); provision of integrated LPG delivery services, as well as management services; wholesale and trade of LPG; and investment in commercial enterprises. As of December 31, 2025, it owned and operated a fleet of 54 vessels, including 28 very large gas carriers, 7 large gas carriers time chartered in by product services, and 8 VLGCs owned by BW LPG India Pte. Ltd. BW LPG Limited was formerly known as BW Gas LPG Holding Limited and changed its name to BW LPG Limited in September 2013. The company was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Singapore.
Stock analysis
BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG) currently trades at kr 252.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 378.71, implying the stock looks roughly 33.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 449.50 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 252.40 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 77.17, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 244.48 (bear) to kr 492.32 (bull), the price of kr 252.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
BW LPG Ltd reported revenue of $3.6B in FY2025 versus $688M in FY2021, a compound +51.1%/yr. Reported net income was $242M in FY2025, compounding +7.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 38.2B NOK (≈ $4.0B) · P/E ratio 9.0 · P/S ratio 0.61 · EPS (TTM) kr 27.90 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 6.8% · Return on equity 25.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 144% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 50%, BWLPG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 244.48Fair Value kr 378.71Bull kr 492.32
Price kr 252.40 · Upside +50.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 19.76 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.6% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−0.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.9% vs −1.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.6% a year for the price.
AI conclusion: Moderate returns from asset sales in volatile markets form the main strength while thin evidence and lack of any durable edge remain the central weakness.
Main risk: Freight volatility amid shifting trade routes threatens to erode margins on the expanded fleet and strain future capital commitments.
BW LPG is actively selling older VLGCs at second-hand prices equivalent to newbuild costs while placing orders for eight new dual-fuel vessels due from 2029 onward. This approach locks in gains from elevated asset values today but increases future capital commitments amid shifting trade routes and freight volatility. Does the cash from these disposals provide lasting flexibility or mainly fund a larger fleet that must perform in uncertain markets?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+50.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)25.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)13.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.40× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
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As of Oct 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 378.71 versus a price of kr 252.40, about +50% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BWLPG?
Our model-based fair value for BW LPG Ltd is kr 378.71 (as of Oct 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 252.40.
What is the quality score of BWLPG?
BW LPG Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 378.71 (as of Oct 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 244.48, optimistic scenario kr 492.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BW LPG Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 378.71, about +50% upside versus a price of kr 252.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 244.48, optimistic scenario kr 492.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
BW LPG Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 6, 2026).
Does BW LPG Ltd pay a dividend?
BW LPG Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.03% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BW LPG Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -3.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +34.6 % per year. As of Oct 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BWLPG use?
Our models discount BW LPG Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.11, country premium for Norway. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BW LPG Ltd that is -3.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BW LPG Ltd grew +34.6 % a year. The price currently implies -3.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BW LPG Ltd (-3.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.70 %: that much free cash flow BW LPG Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BW LPG Ltd it is kr 378.71 per share (as of Oct 6, 2026), against a price of kr 252.40. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BW LPG Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 6, 2026, BWLPG trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 252.40, fair value kr 378.71, a gap of about +50% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BWLPG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 252.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 378.71). For BW LPG Ltd the two are kr 126.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BW LPG Ltd worth?
The market values BW LPG Ltd at about 38.2B NOK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 6, 2026). Per share that is kr 252.40; our models calculate a fair value of kr 378.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BWLPG?
Our models span a range for BW LPG Ltd: cautious scenario kr 244.48, base kr 378.71, optimistic kr 492.32 per share (as of Oct 6, 2026, price kr 252.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BWLPG?
BW LPG Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0 (as of Oct 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 378.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
Balance-sheet figures for BW LPG Ltd (as of Oct 6, 2026): return on equity 25.5%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BWLPG from its 52-week high?
BW LPG Ltd trades at kr 252.40, at its 52-week high of kr 252.40 and 144% above the low of kr 103.45 (as of Oct 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 378.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BW LPG Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Energy Transfer LP,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BW LPG Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 6, 2026: price kr 252.40, calculated fair value kr 378.71 (+50%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BWLPG calculated?
We run BW LPG Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 378.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. BW LPG Ltd currently trades 33 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
The closing price on Oct 9, 2026 was kr 252.40. Our model-based fair value is kr 378.71, about +50% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BW LPG Ltd right now?
Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (kr 244.48 to kr 492.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of BW LPG Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
The market capitalisation of BW LPG Ltd is 38.2B NOK (≈ $4.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BW LPG Ltd is 0.61 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
Earnings per share at BW LPG Ltd are kr 27.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
The dividend yield of BW LPG Ltd is 1.0% (payout 9.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
The net margin of BW LPG Ltd is 6.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BW LPG Ltd is 25.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BW LPG Ltd is 12.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
The operating margin of BW LPG Ltd is 13.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
Revenue at BW LPG Ltd is growing −3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG)?
Earnings per share at BW LPG Ltd are growing +244% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG) carry?
The net debt of BW LPG Ltd is $611M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 6, 2026