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Cascades Inc (CADNF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Cascades Inc $8.34, price $12.74, upside -34.5%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Cascades Inc
CADNF · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $8.34 · Overvalued (−34.5%)
✓Quality 60/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.8% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 35/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.38 – $13.20 · fair‑value band $6.26 – $10.43 · the $12.74 price screens above the $8.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Cascades Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, converts, and markets packaging and tissue products in Canada and the United States. The company operates through two segments, Packaging Products, and Tissue Papers.
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Cascades Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, converts, and markets packaging and tissue products in Canada and the United States. The company operates through two segments, Packaging Products, and Tissue Papers. It offers food packaging solutions, such as trays and accessories, produce baskets, boxes and trays, egg packaging, bulk bins, and cup carriers; protective packaging, including regular boxes, protection and handling, die-cut boxes, shipping trays, and large format boxes; e-commerce packaging solutions comprising adjustable cardboard boxes, compact mailer boxes, die-cut mailer boxes, and quick assembly boxes; and retail and customer packaging, die-cut mailer boxes, and POS and displays. The company also provides hygiene and tissue paper products; and fiber based materials, which includes tissue paper jumbo rolls, containerboard, specialty papers, technological barrier solutions, and uncoated recycled paperboard. In addition, it offers transportation, specialized warehousing, and inventory management services; and recycling solutions consisting of recycling services, brokering and trading materials, secure shredding, recycling equipment, industrial and commercial, retailers and grocers, municipal sector, and graphic design and printing. The company provides its products and services under the Cascades Fresh, Cascades Protect, Cascades IMGN, Cascades Fluff & Tuff, and Cascades PRO brand names. Cascades Inc. was incorporated in 1964 and is headquartered in Kingsey Falls, Canada.
Stock analysis
Cascades Inc (CADNF) currently trades at $12.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.34, 34.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $14.14 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the $12.74 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.44, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $6.26 (bear) to $10.43 (bull), the price of $12.74 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Cascades Inc reported revenue of C$4.8B in FY2025 versus C$4.0B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was C$69.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.3B · P/E ratio 17.7 · P/S ratio 0.26 · EPS (TTM) $0.7200 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 7.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 93% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −35%, CADNF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.26
Fair Value $8.34
Bull $10.43
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1815 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$9.45
$15.56
$24.34
79
Growth DCF
$9.92
$15.66
$23.42
78
Residual Income
$8.46
$8.33
$8.50
76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$9.45
$15.56
$24.34
79
Owner Earnings
$8.14
$13.88
$22.10
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$6.59
$13.73
$23.12
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
$11.93
$22.94
$36.13
73
5Y P/E Exit
$0.6100
$3.43
$6.43
65
10Y Revenue Exit
$7.26
$13.36
$20.36
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$10.67
$18.96
$28.54
67
10Y P/E Exit
$4.28
$7.10
$9.87
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$3.30
$6.30
$7.86
66
EPV
$2.16
$3.98
$5.51
71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$2.64
$3.44
$4.17
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$2.64
$3.46
$4.32
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$6.18
$8.24
$10.30
63
P/S Multiple
$6.18
$8.24
$10.30
58
P/B Multiple
$6.18
$8.24
$10.30
55
EV/EBIT
$8.30
$14.82
$21.34
63
EV/EBITDA
$17.62
$27.24
$36.86
66
EV/Revenue
$5.69
$12.96
$20.22
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$5.96
$7.98
$11.91
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$9.92
$15.66
$23.42
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$6.59
$14.14
$22.81
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$8.46
$8.33
$8.50
76
ROIC Compounder
$2.16
$3.98
$5.51
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$4.47
$6.39
$8.31
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
60/100
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87
Profitability
44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
30
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
98
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
97
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
78
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.1% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
’14
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’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
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’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−11.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.8% vs −6.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.9% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+0.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.0%
CADNF screens overvalued: fair value 35% below the price. Compare with Smurfit Westrock Plc, →
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW | $46.41 | $29.85 | −36% |
| Packaging Corporation PKG | $234.52 | $130.10 | −45% |
| International Paper Company IP | $32.52 | $21.53 | −34% |
| Ball Corporation BALL | $56.83 | $47.81 | −16% |
| Avery Dennison Corporation AVY | $170.78 | $125.35 | −27% |
| Crown Holdings CCK | $108.06 | $121.85 | +13% |
| Stora Enso Oyj STEAV | €10.45 | €9.66 | −8% |
| SIG Group SIGN | CHF 13.37 | CHF 9.59 | −28% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.00 | ¥31.90 | +10% |
| Sonoco Products Company SON | $50.06 | $61.98 | +24% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Cascades Inc (CADNF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.34 versus a price of $12.74, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CADNF?
Our model-based fair value for Cascades Inc is $8.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.74.
What is the quality score of CADNF?
Cascades Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.26, optimistic scenario $10.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cascades Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.34, about −35% upside versus a price of $12.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.26, optimistic scenario $10.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
Cascades Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$4.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Cascades Inc pay a dividend?
Cascades Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.77% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cascades Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +6.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CADNF use?
Our models discount Cascades Inc at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.68, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cascades Inc that is +6.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cascades Inc (CADNF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cascades Inc grew -1.5 % a year. The price currently implies +6.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cascades Inc (CADNF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cascades Inc (+6.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.32 %: that much free cash flow Cascades Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cascades Inc it is $8.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $12.74. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cascades Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CADNF trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.74, fair value $8.34, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CADNF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.34). For Cascades Inc the two are $4.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cascades Inc worth?
The market values Cascades Inc at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $12.74; our models calculate a fair value of $8.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CADNF?
Our models span a range for Cascades Inc: cautious scenario $6.26, base $8.34, optimistic $10.43 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $12.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CADNF from its 52-week high?
Cascades Inc trades at $12.74, about 3% below its 52-week high of $13.20 and 93% above the low of $6.61 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cascades Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cascades Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $12.74, calculated fair value $8.34 (−35%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CADNF calculated?
We run Cascades Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Cascades Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $12.74. Our model-based fair value is $8.34, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cascades Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Cascades Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
The market capitalisation of Cascades Inc is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Cascades Inc is 17.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cascades Inc is 0.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
Earnings per share at Cascades Inc are $0.7200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
The dividend yield of Cascades Inc is 3.8% (payout 66.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
The net margin of Cascades Inc is 1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cascades Inc is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cascades Inc is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
The operating margin of Cascades Inc is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
Revenue at Cascades Inc is growing −2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cascades Inc (CADNF)?
Earnings per share at Cascades Inc are growing +448% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cascades Inc (CADNF) carry?
The net debt of Cascades Inc is C$1.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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