Chemring Group (CMGMF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Chemring Group $2.59, price $7.00, upside -63.0%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Chemring Group for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.45 – $8.59 · fair‑value band $1.69 – $2.98 · the $7.00 price screens above the $2.59 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Chemring Group PLC provides countermeasures, sensors, information, and energy products in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, the Asia pacific, and internationally.
Show more
Chemring Group PLC provides countermeasures, sensors, information, and energy products in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, the Asia pacific, and internationally. The company offers sensors and information products, such as point chemical detectors, sensors, JSLSCAD, and I-SCAD; R Visor, 3D radars, husky mounted detection system, groundshark, MDS-10, and groundhunters; resolve, locate, LOCATE-T, and viper products; and advisory, research, and design and engineering services. It also provides countermeasures and energetics products, including aerodynamic and countermeasure flare; chaf cart and pack; seduction and distraction cart; initiator, separation and explosive bolts, nuts, thrusters, cutters, and pin pullers and pushers; pressure cartridges, initiators, actuators, retractors and systems, time delay devices, ejection handles and sequencers, gas generators, cutters, canopy remover thruster, and thermal battery; wing, fin, elevon deployment actuators, wing and tail retention systems, separation nuts, pyrovalves, and safe and arm devices; joint combined aircrew system, system communication and oxygen, and altitude combined aircrew system tester; HMX, RDX, NTO, Alkyl-NENA, and acetic acid; and advanced performance bangalore torpedo, SX4, PE8, charge demolition user filled conical and linear, igniter safety fuze electric, detonating cord booster, demolition detonator electric and non-electric, detonating cord, and safety fuze. In addition, the company offers metron actuators and gas generators; cutters, igniters and fuzeheads, canopy severance cords and explosive transmission cords; extruded double base propellant for ejection systems and rocket motors; and PED MK 2, breach MC, shrike exploder, mini shrike, long range initiation system, WASP, pigstick, hotrod, mini and midi disruptor, freeze neutralizing kit, fuse extractor, and rocket wrench. Chemring Group PLC was incorporated in 1905 and is headquartered in Romsey, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Chemring Group (CMGMF) currently trades at $7.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.59, 63.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $4.57 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $7.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.25, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.69 (bear) to $2.98 (bull), the price of $7.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Chemring Group reported revenue of £498M in FY2025 versus £393M in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was £48.2M in FY2025, compounding +3.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.9B · P/E ratio 30.4 · P/S ratio 2.95 · EPS (TTM) $0.2300 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 9.7% · Return on equity 13.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −63%, CMGMF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.69Fair Value $2.59Bull $2.98
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 11 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1376 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.20/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.7% vs 15.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 15%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−34.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.1% · Above median
Return on assets4.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)10.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chemring Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CMGMF
Frequently asked questions
Is Chemring Group (CMGMF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.59 versus a price of $7.00, about −63% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CMGMF?
Our model-based fair value for Chemring Group is $2.59 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.00.
What is the quality score of CMGMF?
Chemring Group has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chemring Group (CMGMF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.59 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.69, optimistic scenario $2.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chemring Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.59, about −63% upside versus a price of $7.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.69, optimistic scenario $2.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chemring Group (CMGMF)?
Chemring Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £512M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Chemring Group pay a dividend?
Chemring Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Chemring Group (CMGMF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chemring Group it is $2.59 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $7.00. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chemring Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CMGMF trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.00, fair value $2.59, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMGMF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.59). For Chemring Group the two are $4.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chemring Group worth?
The market values Chemring Group at about $1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $7.00; our models calculate a fair value of $2.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMGMF?
Our models span a range for Chemring Group: cautious scenario $1.69, base $2.59, optimistic $2.98 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $7.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMGMF?
Chemring Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.59 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 4.8, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 20.9.
What is the PEG ratio of CMGMF?
The PEG ratio of Chemring Group is 2.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chemring Group (CMGMF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chemring Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.1%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMGMF from its 52-week high?
Chemring Group trades at $7.00, about 19% below its 52-week high of $8.59 and 18% above the low of $5.95 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chemring Group?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chemring Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $7.00, calculated fair value $2.59 (−63%), Quality Score 59/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMGMF calculated?
We run Chemring Group through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.59, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Chemring Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chemring Group (CMGMF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $7.00. Our model-based fair value is $2.59, about −63% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chemring Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Chemring Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Chemring Group (CMGMF)?
The market capitalisation of Chemring Group is $1.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chemring Group (CMGMF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chemring Group is 2.95 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chemring Group (CMGMF)?
Earnings per share at Chemring Group are $0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chemring Group (CMGMF)?
The dividend yield of Chemring Group is 1.2% (payout 35.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chemring Group (CMGMF)?
The net margin of Chemring Group is 9.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chemring Group (CMGMF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chemring Group is 13.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chemring Group (CMGMF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chemring Group is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chemring Group (CMGMF)?
The operating margin of Chemring Group is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chemring Group (CMGMF)?
Revenue at Chemring Group is growing +6.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chemring Group (CMGMF)?
Earnings per share at Chemring Group are growing −70.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Chemring Group (CMGMF) generate?
The free cash flow of Chemring Group is −£7.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Chemring Group (CMGMF) carry?
The net debt of Chemring Group is £89.0M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Chemring Group in the live analysis
One click puts Chemring Group on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026