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Safran SA (SAFRY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Safran SA $56.16, price $92.79, upside -39.5%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · Home France · ISIN US7865841024

SS Safran SA logo Broad data Sep 28, 2026

Safran SA

SAFRY · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $56.16 · Strongly overvalued (−39.5%)
✓Quality 69/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +12.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 23.0% net margin (TTM) · excl. one-off gain FY2025 12.6%
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.0% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Ranks above peers (10/15)
✓Wide moat 80/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Weak on dividend: 20 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$104.64 $20.92 Fair Value $56.16 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $20.92 – $104.64 · fair‑value band $36.51 – $82.40 · the $92.79 price screens above the $56.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Safran SA, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the aerospace and defense businesses in France, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East. The company operates through three segments: Aerospace Propulsion; Aircraft Equipment, Defense and Aerosystems; and Aircraft Interiors.

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Safran SA, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the aerospace and defense businesses in France, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East. The company operates through three segments: Aerospace Propulsion; Aircraft Equipment, Defense and Aerosystems; and Aircraft Interiors. The Aerospace Propulsion segment designs, develops, produces, and markets propulsion and mechanical power transmission systems for commercial aircraft, military transport, training and combat aircraft, civil and military helicopters, and drones; and offers maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services, as well as sells spare parts. The Aircraft Equipment, Defense and Aerosystems segment provides landing gears and brakes; nacelles and reversers; avionics, such as flight controls and onboard information systems; security systems, including evacuation slides and oxygen masks; onboard computers and fuel systems; electrical power management systems and related engineering services; optronic equipment and sights, navigation equipment and sensors, infantry, and drones; MRO services; and sells spare parts. The Aircraft Interiors segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets aircraft seats for passengers and crew; cabin equipment, overhead bins, class dividers, passenger service units, cabin interior solutions, chilling systems, galleys, electrical inserts, and trolleys; and cabin equipment and passenger comfort-focused solutions such as water distribution, lavatories, air systems, and in-flight entertainment and connectivity (IFEC) solutions. The company's products and services are used in commercial civil and military aircrafts, and helicopters. Safran SA was founded in 1896 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

Stock analysis

Safran SA (SAFRY) currently trades at $92.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $56.16, 39.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $90.84 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the $92.79 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.73, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $36.51 (bear) to $82.40 (bull), the price of $92.79 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Safran SA reported revenue of €30.0B in FY2025 versus €15.1B in FY2021, a compound +18.6%/yr. Reported net income was €6.9B in FY2025, compounding +255.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $155B · P/E ratio 20.0 · P/S ratio 4.60 · EPS (TTM) $4.64 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 23.0% · Return on equity 55.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −39%, SAFRY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $36.51 Fair Value $56.16 Bull $82.40
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.23 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $37.91 $59.48 $93.58 79
Growth DCF $38.29 $56.93 $84.35 78
Owner Earnings $60.34 $95.84 $151.97 75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $37.91 $59.48 $93.58 79
Owner Earnings $60.34 $95.84 $151.97 75
5Y Revenue Exit $30.60 $46.56 $67.04 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $36.15 $57.23 $82.16 75
5Y P/E Exit $58.59 $100.34 $145.44 70
10Y Revenue Exit $32.10 $47.53 $68.62 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $36.45 $55.04 $80.46 68
10Y P/E Exit $50.91 $85.41 $129.97 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $31.76 $111.81 $150.42 64
Lynch FV $26.13 $37.32 $48.52 61
PEG = 1.0 $26.13 $37.32 $48.52 57
EPV $16.04 $18.18 $20.05 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $73.57 $98.10 $122.62 63
P/S Multiple $30.45 $40.60 $50.75 58
P/B Multiple $33.92 $45.23 $56.53 55
EV/EBIT $37.58 $49.05 $60.51 66
EV/EBITDA $38.87 $50.76 $62.65 67
EV/Revenue $27.74 $38.26 $48.78 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.03 $6.73 $10.05 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $38.29 $56.93 $84.35 78
Rev-Margin DCF $30.60 $46.63 $65.75 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $25.65 $33.43 $63.66 72
ROIC Compounder $17.15 $21.15 $25.96 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $63.59 $90.84 $118.09 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 59
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 50
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 95
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 97/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+84.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+83.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.83.2% vs 13.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.0% a year for the price and +7.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+19.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+9.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+8.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.7%

SAFRY screens overvalued: fair value 39% below the price. Compare with General Electric Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +9.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 55.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 23.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 12.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.14× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 9.17× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 4.36× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 31.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 22.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.34× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)45 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)63 · sector 59
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)93 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)20 · sector 18

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
General Electric Company GE $312.29 $92.61 −70%
RTX Corporation RTX $185.01 $88.30 −52%
Airbus SE AIR €185.60 €112.14 −40%
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $509.25 $439.62 −14%
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $230.94 $52.67 −77%
General Dynamics Corporation GD $334.16 $274.19 −18%
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $504.61 $382.98 −24%
TransDigm Group TDG $1,116 $1,228 +10%
Thales S.A HO €222.70 €170.99 −23%
Rheinmetall AG RHM €956.90 €313.19 −67%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Safran SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAFRY

Frequently asked questions

Is Safran SA (SAFRY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $56.16 versus a price of $92.79, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SAFRY?
Our model-based fair value for Safran SA is $56.16 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $92.79.
What is the quality score of SAFRY?
Safran SA has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Safran SA (SAFRY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $56.16 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $36.51, optimistic scenario $82.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Safran SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $56.16, about −39% upside versus a price of $92.79 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $36.51, optimistic scenario $82.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Safran SA (SAFRY)?
Safran SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €31.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Safran SA pay a dividend?
Safran SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.02% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Safran SA (SAFRY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Safran SA would have to grow free cash flow by +16.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.5 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAFRY use?
Our models discount Safran SA at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.97, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Safran SA that is +16.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Safran SA (SAFRY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Safran SA grew +12.5 % a year. The price currently implies +16.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Safran SA (SAFRY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Safran SA (+16.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Safran SA (SAFRY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.13 %: that much free cash flow Safran SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Safran SA (SAFRY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Safran SA it is $56.16 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $92.79. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Safran SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, SAFRY trades above its calculated fair value: price $92.79, fair value $56.16, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAFRY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($92.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($56.16). For Safran SA the two are $36.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Safran SA worth?
The market values Safran SA at about $155B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $92.79; our models calculate a fair value of $56.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAFRY?
Our models span a range for Safran SA: cautious scenario $36.51, base $56.16, optimistic $82.40 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $92.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SAFRY?
Safran SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.0 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $56.16 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 36.6 (reported 20.0). Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 9.2, P/S 4.4, EV/EBITDA 22.2.
What is the PEG ratio of SAFRY?
The PEG ratio of Safran SA is 2.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Safran SA (SAFRY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Safran SA (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 55.7%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAFRY from its 52-week high?
Safran SA trades at $92.79, about 11% below its 52-week high of $104.64 and 21% above the low of $76.43 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $56.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Safran SA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Safran SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $92.79, calculated fair value $56.16 (−39%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAFRY calculated?
We run Safran SA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $56.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Safran SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Safran SA (SAFRY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $92.79. Our model-based fair value is $56.16, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Safran SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($82.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($36.51 to $82.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Safran SA

How large is the market capitalisation of Safran SA (SAFRY)?
The market capitalisation of Safran SA is $155B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Safran SA (SAFRY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Safran SA is 4.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Safran SA (SAFRY)?
Earnings per share at Safran SA are $4.64 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Safran SA (SAFRY)?
The dividend yield of Safran SA is 1.0% (payout 37.1%, on adjusted earnings, reported 20.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Safran SA (SAFRY)?
The net margin of Safran SA is 23.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Safran SA (SAFRY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Safran SA is 55.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Safran SA (SAFRY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Safran SA is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Safran SA (SAFRY)?
The operating margin of Safran SA is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Safran SA (SAFRY)?
Revenue at Safran SA is growing +12.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Safran SA (SAFRY)?
Earnings per share at Safran SA are growing +90.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Safran SA (SAFRY) hold?
Safran SA holds more cash than debt, €1.5B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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