ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of ExlService Holdings Inc $38.67, price $34.83, upside +11.0%, quality 79 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $21.16 – $51.80 · fair‑value band $24.30 – $50.28 · the $34.83 price screens below the $38.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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ExlService Holdings, Inc., operates as a data and artificial intelligence ("AI") company in the North America, the United Kingdom, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Insurance; Healthcare and Life Sciences; Banking, Capital Markets, and Diversified Industries; and International Growth Markets.
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ExlService Holdings, Inc., operates as a data and artificial intelligence ("AI") company in the North America, the United Kingdom, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Insurance; Healthcare and Life Sciences; Banking, Capital Markets, and Diversified Industries; and International Growth Markets. It provides digital operations and solutions and analytics-driven services, such as claims management, premium and benefit administration, agency management, account reconciliation, actuarial and risk analytics, policy research, digital marketing, underwriting support, new business acquisition, policy servicing, audit, surveys, billing and collection, commercial and residential survey, and customer service; digital customer acquisition services using a software-as-a-service delivery model through LifePRO and Life Digital Suite platforms; and Subrosource software platform, an end-to-end subrogation platform. The company also offers health care services for care, utilization, and disease management; payment integrity; revenue optimization, customer engagement, and commercial analytics and regulatory support services; and digital operations and solutions. In addition, it provides financial planning and analysis, accounting, regulatory and statutory reporting, decision support, data management, and compliance services; consumer and commercial banking, credit card and payment services; fintech, wealth and retirement services; capital markets, utilities, retail and consumer packaged goods, communications, media and entertainment, travel and leisure, transportation and logistics, infrastructure, and other business services; property and casualty insurance, life insurance, disability insurance; and insurance brokers, reinsurers, annuity and retirement services. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS) currently trades at $34.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.67, implying the stock looks roughly 9.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $43.98 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the $34.83 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.00, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $24.30 (bear) to $50.28 (bull), the price of $34.83 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
ExlService Holdings Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +16.8%/yr. Reported net income was $251M in FY2025, compounding +21.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.7B · P/E ratio 22.2 · P/S ratio 2.67 · EPS (TTM) $1.57 · Net margin 12.0% · Return on equity 28.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.5% · Operating margin 16.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 66% fair-value upside, at 11%, EXLS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $24.30Fair Value $38.67Bull $50.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.15 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.8% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+26.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24% vs 18%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 15%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.0% a year for the price and +7.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare ExlService Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 490 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+11% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.67 versus a price of $34.83, about +11% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EXLS?
Our model-based fair value for ExlService Holdings Inc is $38.67 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $34.83.
What is the quality score of EXLS?
ExlService Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $38.67 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.30, optimistic scenario $50.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ExlService Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $38.67, about +11% upside versus a price of $34.83 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $24.30, optimistic scenario $50.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)?
ExlService Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ExlService Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +7.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXLS use?
Our models discount ExlService Holdings Inc at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ExlService Holdings Inc that is +7.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ExlService Holdings Inc grew +16.9 % a year. The price currently implies +7.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ExlService Holdings Inc (+7.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.27 %: that much free cash flow ExlService Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ExlService Holdings Inc it is $38.67 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $34.83. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ExlService Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, EXLS trades below its calculated fair value: price $34.83, fair value $38.67, a gap of about +11% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXLS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($34.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($38.67). For ExlService Holdings Inc the two are $3.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ExlService Holdings Inc worth?
The market values ExlService Holdings Inc at about $5.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $34.83; our models calculate a fair value of $38.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXLS?
Our models span a range for ExlService Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $24.30, base $38.67, optimistic $50.28 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $34.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EXLS?
ExlService Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $38.67 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 6.2, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 15.6.
What is the PEG ratio of EXLS?
The PEG ratio of ExlService Holdings Inc is 0.87 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)?
Balance-sheet figures for ExlService Holdings Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 28.1%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXLS from its 52-week high?
ExlService Holdings Inc trades at $34.83, about 21% below its 52-week high of $44.03 and 38% above the low of $25.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $38.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ExlService Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ExlService Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $34.83, calculated fair value $38.67 (+11%), Quality Score 79/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXLS calculated?
We run ExlService Holdings Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $38.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. ExlService Holdings Inc currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $34.83. Our model-based fair value is $38.67, about +11% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ExlService Holdings Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range ($24.30 to $50.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS) come from?
Earnings per share at ExlService Holdings Inc grew +18.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.7 %, EBIT margin +5.4 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ExlService Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)?
The market capitalisation of ExlService Holdings Inc is $5.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ExlService Holdings Inc is 2.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)?
Earnings per share at ExlService Holdings Inc are $1.57 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)?
The net margin of ExlService Holdings Inc is 12.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ExlService Holdings Inc is 28.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ExlService Holdings Inc is 15.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)?
The operating margin of ExlService Holdings Inc is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)?
Revenue at ExlService Holdings Inc is growing +13.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)?
Earnings per share at ExlService Holdings Inc are growing +7.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS) carry?
The net debt of ExlService Holdings Inc is $257M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026