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Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value of Firefly Metals Ltd A$0.17, price A$1.41, upside -87.9%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000313769

FM Firefly Metals Ltd logo Thin data Oct 4, 2026

Firefly Metals Ltd

FFM · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 88% below what the stock costs today.

Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +197.4 %/yr in AUD)
Fair value A$0.1700 · Strongly overvalued (−87.9%)
Quality 31/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (0/6)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$2.32 A$0.3450 Fair Value A$0.1700 Aug 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.3450 – A$2.32 · fair‑value band A$0.1105 – A$0.2125 · the A$1.41 price screens above the A$0.1700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

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Company profile

FireFly Metals Ltd engages in the exploration and evaluation of mineral deposits in Australia and Canada. The company operates through three segments: Green Bay; Pickle Grow; and Limestone Well. It primarily explores for gold, titanium, vanadium, and copper deposits.

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Its flagship project is the Green Bay copper-gold project located in Newfoundland, Canada. The company was formerly known as Auteco Minerals Limited and changed its name to FireFly Metals Ltd in November 2023. FireFly Metals Ltd was incorporated in 2004 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM) currently trades at A$1.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1700, 87.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.1105 (bear) to A$0.2125 (bull), the price of A$1.41 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Firefly Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$1.2M in FY2024 versus A$7.0K in FY2020, a compound +262.0%/yr. Reported net income was −A$23.6M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$1.4B (≈ $1.0B) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0600 · Return on equity −8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.3% · Operating margin 702% · Revenue (TTM) −A$3.7M · Revenue growth (YoY) +14.2% · Free cash flow −A$11.2M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −88%, FFM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.1105 Fair Value A$0.1700 Bull A$0.2125
Price A$1.41 · Upside -87.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.2400 A$0.3300 A$0.4900 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.2400 A$0.3300 A$0.4900 51

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 76
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 100
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 11
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 24
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 14
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 28/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−105,769.3% (2020) → −1,634.5% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

FFM screens overvalued: fair value 88% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 383 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Below median
Fair Value upside −87.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −5.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 14.2% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.35× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)71 · sector 77
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹256.30 ₹655.92 +156% vs FFM
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥34.08 ¥54.86 +61% vs FFM
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.04 ¥19.15 +12% vs FFM
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 61.30 SAR 67.43 SAR +10% vs FFM
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹546.90 ₹601.59 +10% vs FFM
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥34.74 ¥38.21 +10% vs FFM
Lynas Rare Earths Limited LYC A$12.41 A$11.82 −5% vs FFM
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,009,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −36% vs FFM
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥40.80 ¥23.62 −42% vs FFM
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN C$11.60 C$4.50 −61% vs FFM

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Firefly Metals Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.1700 −88%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Firefly Metals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FFM

Frequently asked questions

Is Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1700 versus a price of A$1.41, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FFM?
Our model-based fair value for Firefly Metals Ltd is A$0.1700 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.41.
What is the quality score of FFM?
Firefly Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1700 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1105, optimistic scenario A$0.2125. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Firefly Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1700, about −88% upside versus a price of A$1.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1105, optimistic scenario A$0.2125. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Firefly Metals Ltd it is A$0.1700 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of A$1.41. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Firefly Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, FFM trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.41, fair value A$0.1700, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FFM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1700). For Firefly Metals Ltd the two are A$1.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Firefly Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Firefly Metals Ltd at about A$1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is A$1.41; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FFM?
Our models span a range for Firefly Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1105, base A$0.1700, optimistic A$0.2125 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price A$1.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Firefly Metals Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −8.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FFM from its 52-week high?
Firefly Metals Ltd trades at A$1.41, about 39% below its 52-week high of A$2.32 and 4% above the low of A$1.36 (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Firefly Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, Korea Zinc Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Firefly Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price A$1.41, calculated fair value A$0.1700 (−88%), Quality Score 31/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FFM calculated?
We run Firefly Metals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Firefly Metals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was A$1.41. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1700, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Firefly Metals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.2125). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.1105 to A$0.2125) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Firefly Metals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM)?
The market capitalisation of Firefly Metals Ltd is A$1.4B (≈ $1.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM)?
Earnings per share at Firefly Metals Ltd are A$−0.0600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Firefly Metals Ltd is −8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Firefly Metals Ltd is −5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM)?
The operating margin of Firefly Metals Ltd is 702% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM) generate?
Firefly Metals Ltd generates revenue of −A$3.7M (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM)?
Revenue at Firefly Metals Ltd is growing +14.2% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM) generate?
The free cash flow of Firefly Metals Ltd is −A$11.2M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM) hold?
Firefly Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$183M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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