Vale S.A (VALEN) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · MX · Market cap 1.1T MXN
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 163.17 MXN to 139.41 MXN (−14.6%) since Jul 20, 2026. Share price −3.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 44% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (200.08 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (106.18 MXN to 200.08 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 97.26 MXN – 319.30 MXN · fair‑value band 106.18 MXN – 200.08 MXN · the 250.00 MXN price screens above the 139.41 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Vale S.A (VALEN) currently trades at 250.00 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 139.41 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 44.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vale S.A generated revenue of 215B MXN at a net margin of 7.3%. Revenue grew 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.8%. Net debt stands at 13.8B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 106.18 MXN (bear case) to 200.08 MXN (bull case); at 250.00 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -32% fair-value upside, at -44%, VALEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (170.23 MXN) versus Earnings-Based (83.12 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals.
Full company description
Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. It extracts, produces, and distributes iron ore, iron ore pellets, briquettes, nickel, copper, other ferrous products, and by-products, including gold, silver, cobalt, platinum-group metals, and other base metals, as well as low-carbon critical minerals. The company also operates logistics systems and distribution centers, such as mining complexes, railways, and maritime terminals, ports, and ships; generates energy from hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources; and engages in greenfield mineral exploration. In addition, it is involved in research; and trading activities. The company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and changed its name to Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vale S.A reported revenue of 38.4B MXN in FY2025 versus 54.5B MXN in FY2021, a compound −8.4%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B MXN in FY2025, compounding −43.1%/yr from FY2021.
VALEN screens 44% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Vale Q2 Earnings Call Spotlights Copper Growth and Cost Reset
- Compared to Estimates, VALE (VALE) Q2 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics
- Vale Gears Up to Report Q2 Earnings: Here's What to Expect
- VALE S.A. (VALE) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 745.46 MXN | -48% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$179.43 | A$81.76 | -54% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 222.38 MXN | 172.99 MXN | -22% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥19.00 | ¥19.80 | +4% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥70.43 | ¥9.55 | -86% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹584.60 | ₹501.98 | -14% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | -74% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | -13% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥38.36 | ¥25.99 | -32% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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