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Vale S.A (VALEN) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · MX · Market cap 1.2T MXN

Price260.19 MXN
Fair Value163.92 MXN
Upside-37.0%
Quality94/100
Evidence: High Range 117.39 MXN – 252.75 MXN

Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026

Analysis

Vale S.A (VALEN) currently trades at 260.19 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 163.92 MXN — implying the stock looks roughly 37.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 94/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

About the company

Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. It extracts, produces, and distributes iron ore, iron ore pellets, briquettes, nickel, copper, other ferrous products, and by-products, including gold, silver, cobalt, platinum-group metals, and other base metals, as well as low-carbon critical minerals. The company also operates logistics systems and distribution centers, such as mining complexes, railways, and maritime terminals, ports, and ships; generates energy from hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources; and engages in greenfield mineral exploration. In addition, it is involved in research; and trading activities. The company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and changed its name to Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Vale S.A (VALEN) undervalued?
As of Jun 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 163.92 MXN versus a price of 260.19 MXN — about −37% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.
What is the fair value of VALEN?
Our 21-model fair value for Vale S.A is 163.92 MXN (as of Jun 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 260.19 MXN.
What is the quality score of VALEN?
Vale S.A has a Quality Score of 94/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.