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Vale S.A (VALEN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Vale S.A MXN 130, price MXN 239, upside -45.9%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Vale S.A
VALEN · MXStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value 129.52 MXN · Strongly overvalued (−45.9%)
!Quality 55/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −0.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!2.3% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Moderate moat 57/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 97.26 MXN – 319.30 MXN · fair‑value band 111.16 MXN – 186.30 MXN · the 239.35 MXN price screens above the 129.52 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals.
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Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. It extracts, produces, and distributes iron ore, iron ore pellets, briquettes, nickel, copper, other ferrous products, and by-products, including gold, silver, cobalt, platinum-group metals, and other base metals, as well as low-carbon critical minerals. The company also operates logistics systems and distribution centers, such as mining complexes, railways, and maritime terminals, ports, and ships; generates energy from hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources; and engages in greenfield mineral exploration. In addition, it is involved in research; and trading activities. The company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and changed its name to Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Vale S.A (VALEN) currently trades at 239.35 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 129.52 MXN, 45.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 170.48 MXN per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the 239.35 MXN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 83.34 MXN, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 111.16 MXN (bear) to 186.30 MXN (bull), the price of 239.35 MXN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Vale S.A reported revenue of $38.4B in FY2025 versus $54.5B in FY2021, a compound −8.4%/yr. Reported net income was $2.4B in FY2025, compounding −43.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.0T MXN (≈ $56.0B) · P/E ratio 20.7 · P/S ratio 1.27 · EPS (TTM) 11.58 MXN · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 6.1% · Return on equity 6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −46%, VALEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 111.16 MXN
Fair Value 129.52 MXN
Bull 186.30 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (4.61 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
101.64 MXN
163.71 MXN
278.67 MXN
78
Growth DCF
109.00 MXN
169.25 MXN
272.30 MXN
77
Owner Earnings
495.79 MXN
712.62 MXN
1,114 MXN
76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
101.64 MXN
163.71 MXN
278.67 MXN
78
Owner Earnings
495.79 MXN
712.62 MXN
1,114 MXN
76
5Y Revenue Exit
101.35 MXN
176.41 MXN
285.56 MXN
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
463.77 MXN
803.88 MXN
1,254 MXN
74
5Y P/E Exit
71.70 MXN
125.09 MXN
189.12 MXN
69
10Y Revenue Exit
95.70 MXN
151.70 MXN
211.98 MXN
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
320.21 MXN
539.72 MXN
780.69 MXN
68
10Y P/E Exit
82.23 MXN
119.97 MXN
155.37 MXN
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
68.19 MXN
83.34 MXN
93.76 MXN
67
EPV
173.85 MXN
212.23 MXN
245.82 MXN
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
139.41 MXN
152.59 MXN
172.67 MXN
69
DDM Multi-Stage
139.41 MXN
174.91 MXN
224.67 MXN
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
127.86 MXN
170.48 MXN
213.10 MXN
63
P/S Multiple
127.86 MXN
170.48 MXN
213.10 MXN
58
P/B Multiple
127.86 MXN
170.48 MXN
213.10 MXN
55
EV/EBIT
451.36 MXN
620.63 MXN
789.90 MXN
66
EV/EBITDA
816.69 MXN
1,108 MXN
1,399 MXN
67
EV/Revenue
115.48 MXN
189.16 MXN
262.84 MXN
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
71.43 MXN
95.72 MXN
142.87 MXN
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
109.00 MXN
169.25 MXN
272.30 MXN
77
Rev-Margin DCF
101.35 MXN
180.12 MXN
276.45 MXN
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
117.59 MXN
124.78 MXN
136.09 MXN
76
ROIC Compounder
173.85 MXN
220.15 MXN
270.50 MXN
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
91.09 MXN
130.12 MXN
169.16 MXN
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
55/100
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Profitability
31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
19
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
55
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
61
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
64
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
90
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −6.8% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−3.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.57% → 30%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.5% a year for the price and −0.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+7.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+0.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+0.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+0.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+0.8%
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is Vale S.A (VALEN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 129.52 MXN versus a price of 239.35 MXN, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VALEN?
Our model-based fair value for Vale S.A is 129.52 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 239.35 MXN.
What is the quality score of VALEN?
Vale S.A has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vale S.A (VALEN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 129.52 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 111.16 MXN, optimistic scenario 186.30 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vale S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 129.52 MXN, about −46% upside versus a price of 239.35 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 111.16 MXN, optimistic scenario 186.30 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Vale S.A pay a dividend?
Vale S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vale S.A (VALEN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vale S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +16.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.8 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VALEN use?
Our models discount Vale S.A at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vale S.A that is +16.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vale S.A (VALEN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vale S.A grew -0.8 % a year. The price currently implies +16.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vale S.A (VALEN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vale S.A (+16.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vale S.A (VALEN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.99 %: that much free cash flow Vale S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vale S.A (VALEN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vale S.A it is 129.52 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of 239.35 MXN. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vale S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, VALEN trades above its calculated fair value: price 239.35 MXN, fair value 129.52 MXN, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VALEN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (239.35 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (129.52 MXN). For Vale S.A the two are 109.83 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vale S.A worth?
The market values Vale S.A at about 1.0T MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is 239.35 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 129.52 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VALEN?
Our models span a range for Vale S.A: cautious scenario 111.16 MXN, base 129.52 MXN, optimistic 186.30 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price 239.35 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is VALEN from its 52-week high?
Vale S.A trades at 239.35 MXN, about 21% below its 52-week high of 304.00 MXN and 22% above the low of 195.67 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 129.52 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vale S.A?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vale S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price 239.35 MXN, calculated fair value 129.52 MXN (−46%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VALEN calculated?
We run Vale S.A through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 129.52 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Vale S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vale S.A (VALEN)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was 239.35 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 129.52 MXN, about −46% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vale S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (186.30 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Vale S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Vale S.A (VALEN)?
The market capitalisation of Vale S.A is 1.0T MXN (≈ $56.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Vale S.A (VALEN)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Vale S.A is 20.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Vale S.A (VALEN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vale S.A is 1.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vale S.A (VALEN)?
Earnings per share at Vale S.A are 11.58 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vale S.A (VALEN)?
The dividend yield of Vale S.A is 2.3% (payout 47.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vale S.A (VALEN)?
The net margin of Vale S.A is 6.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vale S.A (VALEN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vale S.A is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vale S.A (VALEN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vale S.A is 19.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vale S.A (VALEN)?
The operating margin of Vale S.A is 28.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vale S.A (VALEN)?
Revenue at Vale S.A is growing +2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vale S.A (VALEN)?
Earnings per share at Vale S.A are growing +22.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vale S.A (VALEN) carry?
The net debt of Vale S.A is $13.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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