Anglo American plc (AAUKF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Anglo American plc $24.76, price $51.65, upside -52.1%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.26 – $57.40 · fair‑value band $16.03 – $39.78 · the $51.65 price screens above the $24.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Anglo American plc, a mining company, produces copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through the Premium Iron Ore and the Copper segments. It also explores for nickel, diamonds, steelmaking coal, and manganese ore.
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Anglo American plc, a mining company, produces copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through the Premium Iron Ore and the Copper segments. It also explores for nickel, diamonds, steelmaking coal, and manganese ore. The company was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Anglo American plc (AAUKF) currently trades at $51.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.76, 52.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $45.34 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the $51.65 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.23, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $16.03 (bear) to $39.78 (bull), the price of $51.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Anglo American plc reported revenue of $18.5B in FY2025 versus $41.6B in FY2021, a compound −18.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.7B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $55.3B · P/S ratio 3.18 · EPS (TTM) $−1.05 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin −20.2% · Return on equity −2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.9% · Operating margin 22.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −52%, AAUKF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $16.03Fair Value $24.76Bull $39.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.0% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
21.6% (2020) → 21.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.5% a year for the price and +3.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 354 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside+48.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets4.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−20.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)22.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.56× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Anglo American plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AAUKF
Frequently asked questions
Is Anglo American plc (AAUKF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.76 versus a price of $51.65, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AAUKF?
Our model-based fair value for Anglo American plc is $24.76 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $51.65.
What is the quality score of AAUKF?
Anglo American plc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.76 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.03, optimistic scenario $39.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Anglo American plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.76, about −52% upside versus a price of $51.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $16.03, optimistic scenario $39.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
Anglo American plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $18.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Anglo American plc pay a dividend?
Anglo American plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Anglo American plc would have to grow free cash flow by +17.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -9.7 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AAUKF use?
Our models discount Anglo American plc at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Anglo American plc that is +17.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Anglo American plc (AAUKF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Anglo American plc grew -9.7 % a year. The price currently implies +17.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Anglo American plc (AAUKF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Anglo American plc (+17.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.85 %: that much free cash flow Anglo American plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Anglo American plc it is $24.76 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $51.65. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Anglo American plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, AAUKF trades above its calculated fair value: price $51.65, fair value $24.76, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AAUKF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($51.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($24.76). For Anglo American plc the two are $26.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Anglo American plc worth?
The market values Anglo American plc at about $55.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $51.65; our models calculate a fair value of $24.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AAUKF?
Our models span a range for Anglo American plc: cautious scenario $16.03, base $24.76, optimistic $39.78 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $51.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of AAUKF?
The PEG ratio of Anglo American plc is 1.90 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Anglo American plc (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity −2.7%, debt of 0.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AAUKF from its 52-week high?
Anglo American plc trades at $51.65, about 10% below its 52-week high of $57.40 and 46% above the low of $35.33 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $24.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Anglo American plc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Anglo American plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $51.65, calculated fair value $24.76 (−52%), Quality Score 52/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AAUKF calculated?
We run Anglo American plc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $24.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Anglo American plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $51.65. Our model-based fair value is $24.76, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Anglo American plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($39.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($16.03 to $39.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Anglo American plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
The market capitalisation of Anglo American plc is $55.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Anglo American plc is 3.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
Earnings per share at Anglo American plc are $−1.05. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
The dividend yield of Anglo American plc is 0.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
The net margin of Anglo American plc is −20.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Anglo American plc is −2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Anglo American plc is 12.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
The operating margin of Anglo American plc is 22.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
Revenue at Anglo American plc is growing +17.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −19.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Anglo American plc (AAUKF)?
Earnings per share at Anglo American plc are growing −65.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Anglo American plc (AAUKF) carry?
The net debt of Anglo American plc is $8.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 29, 2026