BHP Group (BHP) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$296B
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from A$30.18 to A$30.09 (−0.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +6.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 52% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$37.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range (A$19.06 to A$37.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$23.79 – A$65.59 · fair‑value band A$19.06 – A$37.72 · the A$62.82 price screens above the A$30.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
BHP Group (BHP) currently trades at A$62.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$30.09, implying the stock looks roughly 52.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, BHP Group generated revenue of A$54.0B at a net margin of 19.0%. Revenue grew 10.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.7%. Net debt stands at A$12.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$19.06 (bear case) to A$37.72 (bull case); at A$62.82, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -36% fair-value upside, at -52%, BHP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$29.59) versus Asset-Based (A$6.10). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments.
Full company description
BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments. It also engages in the mining of copper, uranium, gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, silver, iron ore, cobalt, and metallurgical and energy coal. In addition, the company is involved in the mining, smelting, and refining of nickel, as well as potash development activities. Further, it provides towing, freight, marketing and trading, marketing support, finance, administrative, and other services. BHP Group Limited was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BHP Group reported revenue of A$51.3B in FY2025 versus A$56.9B in FY2021, a compound −2.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$9.0B in FY2025, compounding −5.5%/yr from FY2021.
BHP screens 52% overvalued. Compare with Rio Tinto Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is BHP Group (ASX:BHP) Cheap Following Leadership Changes And Copper Project Progress?
- BHP awards contract to Nerin for South Australia smelter project
- BHP Wins First Approval for Up to $14.7 Billion Escondida Expansion
- BHP secures environmental clearance for Escondida expansion
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 477 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 20/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
| Korea Zinc Company 010130 | 1,043,000 KRW | 646,063 KRW | -38% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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