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Genel Energy plc (GEGYF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Genel Energy plc $1.15, price $0.87, upside +31.8%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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GE
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Genel Energy plc
GEGYF · USUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value $1.15 · Undervalued (+31.8%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −15.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -12.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 11/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.5000 – $2.61 · fair‑value band $1.01 – $1.37 · the $0.8723 price screens below the $1.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Genel Energy plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. It operates through two segments: Production and Pre-production. Genel Energy plc was formerly known as Genel Energy International Limited and changed its name to Genel Energy plc in November 2011.
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Genel Energy plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. It operates through two segments: Production and Pre-production. Genel Energy plc was formerly known as Genel Energy International Limited and changed its name to Genel Energy plc in November 2011. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Genel Energy plc (GEGYF) currently trades at $0.8723, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.15, implying the stock looks roughly 24.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1.07 per share, and 9 of the 11 models we run sit above the $0.8723 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.7900, and 2 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.01 (bear) to $1.37 (bull), the price of $0.8723 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Genel Energy plc reported revenue of $70.2M in FY2025 versus $335M in FY2021, a compound −32.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$9.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $240M · P/S ratio 2.75 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0500 · Net margin −13.0% · Return on equity −3.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.9% · Operating margin −46.6% · Revenue (TTM) $72.1M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 32%, GEGYF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.01
Fair Value $1.15
Bull $1.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.9500
$1.07
$1.27
82
Growth DCF
$0.9600
$1.08
$1.25
80
Owner Earnings
$1.33
$1.55
$1.90
78
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.9500
$1.07
$1.27
82
Owner Earnings
$1.33
$1.55
$1.90
78
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.8100
$0.9000
$1.03
74
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.9800
$1.19
$1.48
77
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.8700
$0.9400
$1.00
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.9600
$1.09
$1.23
70
Multiples
EV/EBITDA
$1.09
$1.30
$1.50
67
EV/Revenue
$0.7000
$0.7900
$0.8800
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.6400
$0.8500
$1.28
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.9600
$1.08
$1.25
80
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.8100
$0.9100
$1.05
74
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
51/100
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Profitability
4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
54
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
41
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
86
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
17/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−44.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −14.7% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−228.2% (2020) → −21.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+27.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about 0.0% a year for the price and +24.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+50.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+27.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+24.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+21.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+18.0%
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Compare Genel Energy plc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 290 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $127.06 | $91.42 | −28% |
| CNOOC Limited 0883 | HK$23.40 | HK$39.91 | +71% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.55 | $52.31 | +10% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $137.76 | $165.02 | +20% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $57.84 | $33.18 | −43% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $46.73 | $51.40 | +10% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $185.23 | $243.76 | +32% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$31.48 | A$23.87 | −24% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $50.09 | $55.10 | +10% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $336.46 | $317.06 | −6% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Genel Energy plc (GEGYF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.15 versus a price of $0.8723, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GEGYF?
Our model-based fair value for Genel Energy plc is $1.15 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.8723.
What is the quality score of GEGYF?
Genel Energy plc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Genel Energy plc (GEGYF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.15 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.01, optimistic scenario $1.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Genel Energy plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.15, about +32% upside versus a price of $0.8723 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.01, optimistic scenario $1.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Genel Energy plc (GEGYF)?
Genel Energy plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $72.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Genel Energy plc (GEGYF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Genel Energy plc would have to grow free cash flow by +2.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -15.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GEGYF use?
Our models discount Genel Energy plc at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Genel Energy plc that is +2.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Genel Energy plc (GEGYF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Genel Energy plc grew -15.2 % a year. The price currently implies +2.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Genel Energy plc (GEGYF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Genel Energy plc (+2.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Genel Energy plc (GEGYF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.96 %: that much free cash flow Genel Energy plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Genel Energy plc (GEGYF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Genel Energy plc it is $1.15 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.8723. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Genel Energy plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GEGYF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.8723, fair value $1.15, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GEGYF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.8723); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.15). For Genel Energy plc the two are $0.2777 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Genel Energy plc worth?
The market values Genel Energy plc at about $240M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.8723; our models calculate a fair value of $1.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GEGYF?
Our models span a range for Genel Energy plc: cautious scenario $1.01, base $1.15, optimistic $1.37 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.8723). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Genel Energy plc (GEGYF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Genel Energy plc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −3.6%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GEGYF from its 52-week high?
Genel Energy plc trades at $0.8723, about 12% below its 52-week high of $0.9880 and 27% above the low of $0.6857 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Genel Energy plc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Genel Energy plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.8723, calculated fair value $1.15 (+32%), Quality Score 51/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GEGYF calculated?
We run Genel Energy plc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Genel Energy plc currently trades 24 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Genel Energy plc (GEGYF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.8723. Our model-based fair value is $1.15, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Genel Energy plc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.01). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Genel Energy plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Genel Energy plc (GEGYF)?
The market capitalisation of Genel Energy plc is $240M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Genel Energy plc (GEGYF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Genel Energy plc is 2.75 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Genel Energy plc (GEGYF)?
Earnings per share at Genel Energy plc are $−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Genel Energy plc (GEGYF)?
The net margin of Genel Energy plc is −13.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Genel Energy plc (GEGYF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Genel Energy plc is −3.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Genel Energy plc (GEGYF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Genel Energy plc is −4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Genel Energy plc (GEGYF)?
The operating margin of Genel Energy plc is −46.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Genel Energy plc (GEGYF)?
Revenue at Genel Energy plc is growing −4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −44.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Genel Energy plc (GEGYF)?
Earnings per share at Genel Energy plc are growing +389% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Genel Energy plc (GEGYF) hold?
Genel Energy plc holds more cash than debt, $134M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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