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Data-driven stock valuation

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Canadian Natural Resources Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Energy · US · Market cap $102B · ISIN CA1363851017

At a glance

CN Canadian Natural Resources Ltd logo Canadian Natural Resources Ltd CNQ · US
Price$50.46
Fair Value$31.77
Upside−37.0%
Quality72/100

A solid business, but trading 59% above our fair value of $31.77.

As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd is $31.77 per share against a price of $50.46, so the fair value sits 37% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +20.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 26.3% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·4.73% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
✓Wide moat 74/100
!The models disagree: range $24.61 to $82.22
Evidence: High Range $24.61 to $82.22

Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Sep 6, 2026, revised from $31.66 to $31.77 (+0.3%) since Aug 28, 2026. Share price +12.8% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($24.61 to $82.22). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$51.81 $11.60 Fair Value $31.77 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $11.60 – $51.81 · fair‑value band $24.61 – $82.22 · the $50.46 price screens above the $31.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

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Analysis

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ) currently trades at $50.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.77, implying the stock looks roughly 58.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $87.51 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the $50.46 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.41, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd generated revenue of $38.6B at a net margin of 25.1%. Revenue declined 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.8%. Net debt stands at $19.0B. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026

Scenario range: $24.61 (bear) to $82.22 (bull), the price of $50.46 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −37%, CNQ screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8405 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $47.01 $95.29 $182.21 76
Growth DCF $46.25 $89.55 $164.78 75
EPV $19.30 $23.77 $27.68 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $47.01 $95.29 $182.21 76
Owner Earnings $82.51 $162.21 $305.70 72
5Y Revenue Exit $21.91 $39.17 $61.88 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $34.69 $66.19 $105.95 73
5Y P/E Exit $44.83 $87.64 $137.56 69
10Y Revenue Exit $29.14 $48.71 $77.69 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $38.34 $68.80 $115.50 66
10Y P/E Exit $45.14 $84.75 $142.63 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $35.69 $180.23 $248.87 64
Lynch FV $48.90 $69.86 $90.82 61
PEG = 1.0 $48.90 $69.86 $90.82 57
EPV $19.30 $23.77 $27.68 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $21.68 $45.07 $71.50 66
DDM Multi-Stage $21.68 $38.01 $47.30 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $55.11 $73.48 $91.85 63
P/S Multiple $19.28 $25.71 $32.14 58
P/B Multiple $29.03 $38.71 $48.38 55
EV/EBIT $22.41 $32.38 $42.36 65
EV/EBITDA $31.73 $44.82 $57.90 67
EV/Revenue $10.48 $18.19 $25.90 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.75 $14.41 $21.50 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $46.25 $89.55 $164.78 75
Rev-Margin DCF $21.91 $39.23 $62.28 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $33.91 $43.77 $190.52 64
ROIC Compounder $19.30 $26.80 $36.57 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $61.26 $87.51 $113.77 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($87.51) versus Asset-Based ($14.41). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 12.5
P/S ratio 3.07 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $4.08 price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5
Dividend yield 4.7% payout 58.5%
Net margin 24.5% FY2025
Return on equity 26.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 14.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 43.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $44.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +69.5% 3y avg −3.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +83.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $8.4B FY2025
Net debt $19.0B FY2025 · ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 72/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77

Profitability 61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 62
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 71
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 98
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Canadian Natural Resources Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in Western Canada, the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea, and Offshore Africa.

Full company description

Canadian Natural Resources Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in Western Canada, the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea, and Offshore Africa. The company offers synthetic crude oil (SCO), mining bitumen, light and medium crude oil and NGLs, thermal bitumen, primary heavy crude oil and Pelican Lake heavy crude oil. Its midstream assets include two crude oil pipeline systems; and a 50% working interest in an 84-megawatt cogeneration plant at Primrose. The company was formerly known as AEX Minerals Corporation and changed its name to Canadian Natural Resources Limited in December 1975. Canadian Natural Resources Limited was incorporated in 1973 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd reported revenue of C$44.2B in FY2025 versus C$32.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was C$10.8B in FY2025, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$44.2B
Latest YoY
+23.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (32Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+18.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+13.4%
Dividend yield4.7%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 13.4% vs 10Y 11.2%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2.5% (2020) → 18.6% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop116% (2015) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue +7.7%/yr
FY21 C$32.9B
FY22 C$49.5B
FY23 C$40.8B
FY24 C$35.7B
FY25 C$44.2B
Net income +9.0%/yr
FY21 C$7.7B
FY22 C$10.9B
FY23 C$8.2B
FY24 C$6.1B
FY25 C$10.8B

CNQ screens 59% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Canadian Natural Resources Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CNQ

Peer Group

Oil & Gas E&P · 293 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −37% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 27% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 26% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 43% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 70% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.37× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.31× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.29× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 12.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 3.42× · Priciest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Canadian Natural Resources Ltd deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+1.8 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+20.4 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.5 %
FCF yield on price7.99 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.0 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 7
FUTURE100 · sector 8
PAST100 · sector 9
HEALTH82 · sector 87
DIVIDEND95 · sector 70

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CNOOC Limited 600938 ¥33.41 ¥32.55 −3%
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $130.35 $90.15 −31%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $143.35 $132.20 −8%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $60.04 $30.06 −50%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $199.22 $105.24 −47%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $48.06 $27.06 −44%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$32.55 A$20.71 −36%
EQT Corporation EQT $54.57 $42.85 −21%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $366.50 $77.26 −79%
Expand Energy Corporation EXE $98.16 $106.45 +8%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $31.77 versus a price of $50.46, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CNQ?
Our model-based fair value for Canadian Natural Resources Ltd is $31.77 (as of Sep 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $50.46.
What is the quality score of CNQ?
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $31.77 (as of Sep 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.61, optimistic scenario $82.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Canadian Natural Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $31.77, about −37% upside versus a price of $50.46 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $24.61, optimistic scenario $82.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ)?
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $38.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CNQ?
The net profit margin of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd is about 25.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 25.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Canadian Natural Resources Ltd pay a dividend?
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.8 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.0 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.4 % per year. As of Sep 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CNQ use?
Our models discount Canadian Natural Resources Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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