Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $89.4B
Canadian Natural Resources Limited
CNQ · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $43.97 to $31.54 (−28.3%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +11.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 31% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The model range is unusually wide ($24.44 to $80.18). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.60 – $49.57 · fair‑value band $24.44 – $80.18 · the $45.45 price screens above the $31.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) currently trades at $45.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.54, implying the stock looks roughly 30.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Canadian Natural Resources Limited generated revenue of $38.6B at a net margin of 25.1%. Revenue declined 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.8%. Net debt stands at $19.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $24.44 (bear case) to $80.18 (bull case); at $45.45, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -31%, CNQ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($53.05) versus Asset-Based ($7.04). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Canadian Natural Resources Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in Western Canada, the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea, and Offshore Africa.
Full company description
Canadian Natural Resources Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in Western Canada, the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea, and Offshore Africa. The company offers synthetic crude oil (SCO), mining bitumen, light and medium crude oil and NGLs, thermal bitumen, primary heavy crude oil and Pelican Lake heavy crude oil. Its midstream assets include two crude oil pipeline systems; and a 50% working interest in an 84-megawatt cogeneration plant at Primrose. The company was formerly known as AEX Minerals Corporation and changed its name to Canadian Natural Resources Limited in December 1975. Canadian Natural Resources Limited was incorporated in 1973 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Canadian Natural Resources Limited reported revenue of $44.2B in FY2025 versus $32.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was $10.8B in FY2025, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2021.
CNQ screens 31% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- CNQ (CNQ) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Production and ...
- Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates
- Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 316 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
| Expand Energy Corporation EXE | $87.81 | $106.45 | +21% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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