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ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ConocoPhillips explores for BRL 60.71, price BRL 55.40, upside +9.6%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
ConocoPhillips explores for
COPH34 · SANeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value R$60.71 · Fairly valued (+9.6%)
!Quality 59/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +25.7 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓5.8% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 58/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$20.81 – R$61.19 · fair‑value band R$34.68 – R$81.65 · the R$55.40 price screens below the R$60.71 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Company profile
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific.
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ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; global LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of global exploration prospects. It serves in the United States, Canada, China, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Malaysia, Norway, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and internationally. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
ConocoPhillips explores for, (COPH34) currently trades at R$55.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$60.71, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$47.42 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$55.40 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$15.43, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$34.68 (bear) to R$81.65 (bull), the price of R$55.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ConocoPhillips explores for, reported revenue of $58.9B in FY2025 versus $45.8B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $8.0B in FY2025, compounding −0.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$825B (≈ $158B) · P/E ratio 21.7 · P/S ratio 2.94 · EPS (TTM) R$2.55 · Dividend yield 5.8% · Net margin 13.6% · Return on equity 11.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 10%, COPH34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$34.68
Fair Value R$60.71
Bull R$81.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
R$30.77
R$60.34
R$111.89
76
Residual Income
R$21.60
R$25.62
R$34.80
76
Growth DCF
R$30.49
R$57.60
R$103.61
75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
R$30.77
R$60.34
R$111.89
76
Owner Earnings
R$29.35
R$57.76
R$107.29
73
5Y Revenue Exit
R$17.99
R$32.84
R$52.52
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
R$29.68
R$56.98
R$91.17
73
5Y P/E Exit
R$24.90
R$47.11
R$72.36
69
10Y Revenue Exit
R$21.39
R$36.95
R$59.98
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
R$29.75
R$54.66
R$92.39
66
10Y P/E Exit
R$26.58
R$47.42
R$76.61
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
R$19.40
R$90.51
R$124.36
64
Lynch FV
R$23.91
R$34.16
R$44.40
61
PEG = 1.0
R$23.91
R$34.16
R$44.40
57
EPV
R$14.69
R$18.06
R$21.00
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
R$13.10
R$27.24
R$43.22
66
DDM Multi-Stage
R$13.10
R$22.97
R$28.59
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R$29.96
R$39.95
R$49.93
63
P/S Multiple
R$18.95
R$25.27
R$31.58
58
P/B Multiple
R$31.10
R$41.46
R$51.83
55
EV/EBIT
R$26.30
R$36.91
R$47.52
65
EV/EBITDA
R$32.06
R$44.59
R$57.11
67
EV/Revenue
R$12.17
R$19.75
R$27.33
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
R$11.52
R$15.43
R$23.04
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
R$30.49
R$57.60
R$103.61
75
Rev-Margin DCF
R$17.99
R$32.75
R$51.90
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
R$21.60
R$25.62
R$34.80
76
ROIC Compounder
R$14.69
R$18.06
R$21.00
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
R$31.08
R$44.40
R$57.72
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
59/100
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Profitability
45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
70
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
34
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
75
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
92
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−11% → 20%
Watch COPH34, get fair value alerts →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- ConocoPhillips to hold third-quarter earnings conference call on Thursday, Nov. 5
- Does COP’s Low Forward P/E and Rising Estimates Change The Bull Case For ConocoPhillips (COP)?
- ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Moves -1.77%: What You Should Know
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
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| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$31.48 | A$23.87 | −24% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $50.09 | $55.10 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$60.71 versus a price of R$55.40, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of COPH34?
Our model-based fair value for ConocoPhillips explores for, is R$60.71 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$55.40.
What is the quality score of COPH34?
ConocoPhillips explores for, has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$60.71 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$34.68, optimistic scenario R$81.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ConocoPhillips explores for, stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$60.71, about +10% upside versus a price of R$55.40 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R$34.68, optimistic scenario R$81.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34)?
ConocoPhillips explores for, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $59.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does ConocoPhillips explores for, pay a dividend?
ConocoPhillips explores for, currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.85% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ConocoPhillips explores for, it is R$60.71 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of R$55.40. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ConocoPhillips explores for, stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, COPH34 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$55.40, fair value R$60.71, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COPH34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$55.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$60.71). For ConocoPhillips explores for, the two are R$5.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ConocoPhillips explores for, worth?
The market values ConocoPhillips explores for, at about R$825B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is R$55.40; our models calculate a fair value of R$60.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COPH34?
Our models span a range for ConocoPhillips explores for,: cautious scenario R$34.68, base R$60.71, optimistic R$81.65 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price R$55.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is COPH34 from its 52-week high?
ConocoPhillips explores for, trades at R$55.40, about 8% below its 52-week high of R$60.53 and 48% above the low of R$37.34 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$60.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ConocoPhillips explores for,?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ConocoPhillips explores for, stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price R$55.40, calculated fair value R$60.71 (+10%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COPH34 calculated?
We run ConocoPhillips explores for, through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$60.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ConocoPhillips explores for, currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$55.40. Our model-based fair value is R$60.71, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ConocoPhillips explores for, right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (R$34.68 to R$81.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of ConocoPhillips explores for,
How large is the market capitalisation of ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34)?
The market capitalisation of ConocoPhillips explores for, is R$825B (≈ $158B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of ConocoPhillips explores for, is 21.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ConocoPhillips explores for, is 2.94 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34)?
Earnings per share at ConocoPhillips explores for, are R$2.55 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34)?
The dividend yield of ConocoPhillips explores for, is 5.8% (payout 127%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34)?
The net margin of ConocoPhillips explores for, is 13.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ConocoPhillips explores for, is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ConocoPhillips explores for, is 15.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34)?
The operating margin of ConocoPhillips explores for, is 22.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34)?
Revenue at ConocoPhillips explores for, is growing −5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34)?
Earnings per share at ConocoPhillips explores for, are growing −20.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34) generate?
The free cash flow of ConocoPhillips explores for, is $7.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does ConocoPhillips explores for (COPH34) carry?
The net debt of ConocoPhillips explores for, is $16.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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