ConocoPhillips (COP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what ConocoPhillips is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $44.48 – $141.22 · fair‑value band $67.61 – $131.44 · the $127.53 price screens above the $90.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific.
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ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; global LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of global exploration prospects. It serves in the United States, Canada, China, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Malaysia, Norway, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and internationally. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
ConocoPhillips (COP) currently trades at $127.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $90.15, implying the stock looks roughly 41.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $135.29 per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the $127.53 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $35.08, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $67.61 (bear) to $131.44 (bull), the price of $127.53 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ConocoPhillips reported revenue of $58.7B in FY2025 versus $46.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was $8.0B in FY2025, compounding −0.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $160B · P/E ratio 21.4 · P/S ratio 2.92 · EPS (TTM) $5.95 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 13.6% · Return on equity 11.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −29%, COP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $67.61Fair Value $90.15Bull $131.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.93 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.6%
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+3.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0% vs 2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−10% → 20%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 303 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−33% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)22% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)21.4× · Pricier than median
P/B2.04× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.22× · Pricier than median
P/FCF7.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA6.3× · Pricier than median
PEG0.94× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)45· sector 9
HEALTH (low debt)83· sector 87
DIVIDEND (yield)51· sector 74
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ConocoPhillips Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COP
Frequently asked questions
Is ConocoPhillips (COP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $90.15 versus a price of $127.53, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of COP?
Our model-based fair value for ConocoPhillips is $90.15 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $127.53.
What is the quality score of COP?
ConocoPhillips has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ConocoPhillips (COP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $90.15 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $67.61, optimistic scenario $131.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ConocoPhillips stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $90.15, about −29% upside versus a price of $127.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $67.61, optimistic scenario $131.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
ConocoPhillips reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $59.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does ConocoPhillips pay a dividend?
ConocoPhillips currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into ConocoPhillips (COP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ConocoPhillips would have to grow free cash flow by -6.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.6 % per year. As of Sep 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of COP use?
Our models discount ConocoPhillips at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ConocoPhillips that is -6.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ConocoPhillips (COP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ConocoPhillips grew +25.6 % a year. The price currently implies -6.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ConocoPhillips (COP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ConocoPhillips (-6.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.49 %: that much free cash flow ConocoPhillips produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ConocoPhillips it is $90.15 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of $127.53. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ConocoPhillips stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, COP trades above its calculated fair value: price $127.53, fair value $90.15, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($127.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($90.15). For ConocoPhillips the two are $37.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ConocoPhillips worth?
The market values ConocoPhillips at about $160B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is $127.53; our models calculate a fair value of $90.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COP?
Our models span a range for ConocoPhillips: cautious scenario $67.61, base $90.15, optimistic $131.44 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price $127.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of COP?
ConocoPhillips trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.4 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $90.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 2.0, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 6.3.
What is the PEG ratio of COP?
The PEG ratio of ConocoPhillips is 0.94 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
Balance-sheet figures for ConocoPhillips (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 11.3%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COP from its 52-week high?
ConocoPhillips trades at $127.53, about 5% below its 52-week high of $134.87 and 53% above the low of $83.51 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $90.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ConocoPhillips?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ConocoPhillips stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price $127.53, calculated fair value $90.15 (−29%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COP calculated?
We run ConocoPhillips through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $90.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. ConocoPhillips itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $127.53. Our model-based fair value is $90.15, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ConocoPhillips right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($67.61 to $131.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of ConocoPhillips
How large is the market capitalisation of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
The market capitalisation of ConocoPhillips is $160B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ConocoPhillips is 2.92 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
Earnings per share at ConocoPhillips are $5.95 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
The dividend yield of ConocoPhillips is 2.5% (payout 54.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
The net margin of ConocoPhillips is 13.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ConocoPhillips is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ConocoPhillips is 15.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ConocoPhillips (COP)?
The operating margin of ConocoPhillips is 22.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ConocoPhillips (COP)?
Revenue at ConocoPhillips is growing −5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ConocoPhillips (COP)?
Earnings per share at ConocoPhillips are growing −20.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ConocoPhillips (COP) carry?
The net debt of ConocoPhillips is $16.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 17, 2026