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Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ganfeng Lithium Group $2.54, price $3.89, upside -34.6%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Some data
Oct 1, 2026
Some data
Oct 1, 2026
Ganfeng Lithium Group
GNENF · USWeak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
!Fair value $2.54 · Overvalued (−34.6%)
!Quality 48/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +33.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!3.9% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 46/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.87 – $14.84 · fair‑value band $2.52 – $2.64 · the $3.89 price screens above the $2.54 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
Company profile
Ganfeng Lithium Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells lithium products in China. The company offers lithium hydroxide, carbonate, fluoride, chloride, and other compounds; lithium metals, battery grade lithium metal, lithium foil, and other lithium alloys; cesium and rubidium compounds; and Organo lithium compounds.
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Ganfeng Lithium Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells lithium products in China. The company offers lithium hydroxide, carbonate, fluoride, chloride, and other compounds; lithium metals, battery grade lithium metal, lithium foil, and other lithium alloys; cesium and rubidium compounds; and Organo lithium compounds. It also provides power battery, energy storage system, 3C digital batteries, consumer electronics battery, and solid state lithium batteries; lithium battery materials, such as precursor materials and materials for solid state lithium batteries; and battery recycling solutions. In addition, the company offers raw materials to automotive, battery, and materials manufacturers; energy storage equipment for clean energy sources, including solar and wind power; battery solutions for consumer electronic devices, such as mobile phones, headphones, and robot vacuum cleaners; and lithium-ion battery systems for industrial vehicles, as well as engages in recycling, processing, and reusing resources from used batteries. Its products are used in electric vehicles, energy storage, aerospace, functional materials, and pharmaceuticals industries. Ganfeng Lithium Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Xinyu, China.
Stock analysis
Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF) currently trades at $3.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.54, 34.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $4.74 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the $3.89 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.62, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.52 (bear) to $2.64 (bull), the price of $3.89 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ganfeng Lithium Group reported revenue of 23.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 11.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +19.9%/yr. Reported net income was 1.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding −25.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $15.3B · P/E ratio 27.1 · P/S ratio 1.89 · EPS (TTM) $0.2700 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −35%, GNENF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.52
Fair Value $2.54
Bull $2.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0907 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$2.45
$2.45
$2.52
74
EPV
$0.1000
$0.2200
$0.3300
69
ROIC Compounder
$0.1000
$0.2200
$0.3300
67
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.8000
$5.59
$7.85
61
Lynch FV
$2.66
$3.80
$4.94
59
PEG = 1.0
$2.66
$3.80
$4.94
55
EPV
$0.1000
$0.2200
$0.3300
69
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.9200
$1.92
$3.04
64
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.9200
$1.62
$2.01
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.50
$2.00
$2.51
63
P/S Multiple
$1.50
$2.00
$2.51
58
P/B Multiple
$1.50
$2.00
$2.51
55
EV/EBIT
$0.2600
$0.5700
$0.8700
62
EV/EBITDA
$1.16
$1.76
$2.36
66
EV/Revenue
$0.1400
$0.4800
$0.8200
49
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.65
$2.21
$3.30
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$2.45
$2.45
$2.52
74
ROIC Compounder
$0.1000
$0.2200
$0.3300
67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$3.32
$4.74
$6.16
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
48/100
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19
Profitability
20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
86
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
35
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
31
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
44
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
8
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
73
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +32.8% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.0% vs 25.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (78 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.
- Lithium Argentina Announces Closing of $180M Strategic Investment from Ganfeng
- Ganfeng LiEnergy secures over 30 GWh of project pipeline at SNEC Smart E, to show Full-Scenario Storage Portfolio at Intersolar Europe 2026
- TNR Gold NSR Royalty Update - Ganfeng's Mariana Lithium Officially Commenced Production
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 339 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| LG Chem, Ltd 051910 | 252,500 KRW | 587,755 KRW | +133% |
| Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 | ¥33.97 | ¥19.25 | −43% |
| Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co 000301 | ¥13.36 | ¥3.06 | −77% |
| Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation 1326 | 67.00 TWD | 17.68 TWD | −74% |
| Syensqo SA SYENS | €78.20 | €32.87 | −58% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.54 versus a price of $3.89, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GNENF?
Our model-based fair value for Ganfeng Lithium Group is $2.54 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.89.
What is the quality score of GNENF?
Ganfeng Lithium Group has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.54 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.52, optimistic scenario $2.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ganfeng Lithium Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.54, about −35% upside versus a price of $3.89 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.52, optimistic scenario $2.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF)?
Ganfeng Lithium Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 28.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Ganfeng Lithium Group pay a dividend?
Ganfeng Lithium Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.86% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ganfeng Lithium Group it is $2.54 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of $3.89. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ganfeng Lithium Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, GNENF trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.89, fair value $2.54, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GNENF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.54). For Ganfeng Lithium Group the two are $1.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ganfeng Lithium Group worth?
The market values Ganfeng Lithium Group at about $15.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is $3.89; our models calculate a fair value of $2.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GNENF?
Our models span a range for Ganfeng Lithium Group: cautious scenario $2.52, base $2.54, optimistic $2.64 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price $3.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GNENF?
Ganfeng Lithium Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.1 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.54 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3.
What is the PEG ratio of GNENF?
The PEG ratio of Ganfeng Lithium Group is 0.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ganfeng Lithium Group (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 7.3%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GNENF from its 52-week high?
Ganfeng Lithium Group trades at $3.89, about 66% below its 52-week high of $11.37 and 3% above the low of $3.77 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ganfeng Lithium Group?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, Hengli Petrochemical Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ganfeng Lithium Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price $3.89, calculated fair value $2.54 (−35%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GNENF calculated?
We run Ganfeng Lithium Group through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ganfeng Lithium Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $3.89. Our model-based fair value is $2.54, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ganfeng Lithium Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band ($2.52 to $2.64), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF) come from?
Earnings per share at Ganfeng Lithium Group grew +30.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +32.5 %, EBIT margin −3.5 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ganfeng Lithium Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF)?
The market capitalisation of Ganfeng Lithium Group is $15.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ganfeng Lithium Group is 1.89 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF)?
Earnings per share at Ganfeng Lithium Group are $0.2700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF)?
The dividend yield of Ganfeng Lithium Group is 3.9% (payout 55.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF)?
The net margin of Ganfeng Lithium Group is 7.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ganfeng Lithium Group is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ganfeng Lithium Group is 9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF)?
The operating margin of Ganfeng Lithium Group is 21.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF)?
Revenue at Ganfeng Lithium Group is growing +144% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF)?
Earnings per share at Ganfeng Lithium Group are growing +150% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF) generate?
The free cash flow of Ganfeng Lithium Group is −4.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ganfeng Lithium Group (GNENF) carry?
The net debt of Ganfeng Lithium Group is 18.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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