HWA AG (H9W) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of HWA AG €0.41, price €2.41, upside -83.0%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.45 – €14.19 · fair‑value band €0.3000 – €0.6100 · the €2.41 price screens above the €0.4100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
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HWA AG develops and produces motorsport cars in Germany, Australia, and the United States. The company operates in two segments, Motor Racing and Vehicles/Vehicle Components.
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HWA AG develops and produces motorsport cars in Germany, Australia, and the United States. The company operates in two segments, Motor Racing and Vehicles/Vehicle Components. It participates in the FIA Formula 2 championship and FIA Formula 3 championship under the HWA RACELAB name; and participates in the ABB FIA Formula E championship as a racing team for the Mercedes-Benz EQ Formula E team. In addition, the company engages in the production of Mercedes-AMG GT4 and Mercedes-AMG GT3 MY cars. Further, it develops race and road cars. Additionally, the company provides operation of durability and regulation tests; vehicle components, mechanical assembly, modelling, logistics, and after-sales services. Furthermore, it develops, assemblies, and manages electrics and electronics, as well as engages in vacuum autoclave process services. The company is involved in certification and paint services. HWA AG was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Affalterbach, Germany.
Stock analysis
HWA AG (H9W) currently trades at €2.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.4100, 83.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: €0.3000 (bear) to €0.6100 (bull), the price of €2.41 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
HWA AG reported revenue of €75.4M in FY2025 versus €85.8M in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was −€9.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €44.9M · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) €−0.8500 · Net margin −12.1% · Return on equity −100% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.3% · Operating margin −8.0% · Revenue (TTM) €90.6M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −83%, H9W screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €0.3000Fair Value €0.4100Bull €0.6100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.12/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.0% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7.4% (2019) → −8.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 661 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−83.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−9.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−10.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−8.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/B6.99× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.56× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)99· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 38
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HWA AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/H9W
Frequently asked questions
Is HWA AG (H9W) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.4100 versus a price of €2.41, about −83% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of H9W?
Our model-based fair value for HWA AG is €0.4100 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €2.41.
What is the quality score of H9W?
HWA AG has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HWA AG (H9W)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.4100 (as of Jul 16, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.3000, optimistic scenario €0.6100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HWA AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.4100, about −83% upside versus a price of €2.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.3000, optimistic scenario €0.6100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HWA AG (H9W)?
HWA AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €90.6M (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of HWA AG (H9W)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HWA AG it is €0.4100 per share (as of Jul 16, 2026), against a price of €2.41. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HWA AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jul 16, 2026, H9W trades above its calculated fair value: price €2.41, fair value €0.4100, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of H9W?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€2.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.4100). For HWA AG the two are €2.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HWA AG worth?
The market values HWA AG at about €44.9M (market capitalisation, as of Jul 16, 2026). Per share that is €2.41; our models calculate a fair value of €0.4100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about H9W?
Our models span a range for HWA AG: cautious scenario €0.3000, base €0.4100, optimistic €0.6100 per share (as of Jul 16, 2026, price €2.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of HWA AG (H9W)?
Balance-sheet figures for HWA AG (as of Jul 16, 2026): return on equity −100.3%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is H9W from its 52-week high?
HWA AG trades at €2.41, about 38% below its 52-week high of €3.90 and 4% above the low of €2.31 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.4100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HWA AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HWA AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jul 16, 2026: price €2.41, calculated fair value €0.4100 (−83%), Quality Score 29/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of H9W calculated?
We run HWA AG through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €0.4100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. HWA AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HWA AG (H9W)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €2.41. Our model-based fair value is €0.4100, about −83% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HWA AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.6100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (€0.3000 to €0.6100) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of HWA AG
How large is the market capitalisation of HWA AG (H9W)?
The market capitalisation of HWA AG is €44.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HWA AG (H9W)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HWA AG is 0.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HWA AG (H9W)?
Earnings per share at HWA AG are €−0.8500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of HWA AG (H9W)?
The net margin of HWA AG is −12.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HWA AG (H9W)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HWA AG is −100% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HWA AG (H9W)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HWA AG is −3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HWA AG (H9W)?
The operating margin of HWA AG is −8.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HWA AG (H9W)?
Revenue at HWA AG is growing +19.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HWA AG (H9W)?
Earnings per share at HWA AG are growing +152% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does HWA AG (H9W) generate?
The free cash flow of HWA AG is −€2.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does HWA AG (H9W) carry?
The net debt of HWA AG is €11.4M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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