O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. BRL 0.63, price BRL 1.44, upside -56.3%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$0.3122 – R$1.90 · fair‑value band R$0.3700 – R$1.04 · the R$1.44 price screens above the R$0.6300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada.
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O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company offers new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. It also provides auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. In addition, the company offers enhanced services and programs consisting of used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; referrals to trusted local repair shops; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. It offers its products to do-it-yourself and professional service providers for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. It offers its products under the BesTest, BrakeBest, Cartek, Import Direct, MasterPro, MicroGard, Murray, Omnispark, O'Reilly Auto Parts, Precision, PowerTorque, SuperStart, Syntec, and Ultima brand names. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.
Stock analysis
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34) currently trades at R$1.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$0.6300, 56.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$1.04 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the R$1.44 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at R$0.4000, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R$0.3700 (bear) to R$1.04 (bull), the price of R$1.44 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. reported revenue of $17.8B in FY2025 versus $13.3B in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding +4.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$355B (≈ $67.9B) · P/E ratio 28.8 · P/S ratio 4.11 · EPS (TTM) R$0.0500 · Net margin 14.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.8% · Operating margin 18.5% · Revenue (TTM) $18.2B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −56%, ORLY34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$0.3700Fair Value R$0.6300Bull R$1.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.0378 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
’18
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’20
’21
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’23
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−34.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−34.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 20%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare O'Reilly Automotive Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 662 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/8 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−42.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets13.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)18.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)28.8× · Pricier than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
PEG1.82× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)51· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 38
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "O'Reilly Automotive Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORLY34
Frequently asked questions
Is O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$0.6300 versus a price of R$1.44, about −56% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ORLY34?
Our model-based fair value for O'Reilly Automotive Inc. is R$0.6300 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$1.44.
What is the quality score of ORLY34?
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$0.6300 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$0.3700, optimistic scenario R$1.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the O'Reilly Automotive Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$0.6300, about −56% upside versus a price of R$1.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$0.3700, optimistic scenario R$1.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34)?
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $18.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For O'Reilly Automotive Inc. it is R$0.6300 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$1.44. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is O'Reilly Automotive Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, ORLY34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$1.44, fair value R$0.6300, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORLY34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$1.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$0.6300). For O'Reilly Automotive Inc. the two are R$0.8100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is O'Reilly Automotive Inc. worth?
The market values O'Reilly Automotive Inc. at about R$355B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$1.44; our models calculate a fair value of R$0.6300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORLY34?
Our models span a range for O'Reilly Automotive Inc.: cautious scenario R$0.3700, base R$0.6300, optimistic R$1.04 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$1.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORLY34?
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.8 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$0.6300 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8.
What is the PEG ratio of ORLY34?
The PEG ratio of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. is 1.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34)?
Balance-sheet figures for O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (as of Sep 29, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORLY34 from its 52-week high?
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. trades at R$1.44, about 24% below its 52-week high of R$1.90 and 6% above the low of R$1.36 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$0.6300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to O'Reilly Automotive Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, Knorr-Bremse AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is O'Reilly Automotive Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$1.44, calculated fair value R$0.6300 (−56%), Quality Score 52/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORLY34 calculated?
We run O'Reilly Automotive Inc. through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$0.6300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. O'Reilly Automotive Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$1.44. Our model-based fair value is R$0.6300, about −56% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with O'Reilly Automotive Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$1.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (R$0.3700 to R$1.04). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of O'Reilly Automotive Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34)?
The market capitalisation of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. is R$355B (≈ $67.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. is 4.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34)?
Earnings per share at O'Reilly Automotive Inc. are R$0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34)?
The net margin of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. is 14.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. is 22.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34)?
The operating margin of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. is 18.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34)?
Revenue at O'Reilly Automotive Inc. is growing +10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34)?
Earnings per share at O'Reilly Automotive Inc. are growing +16.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34) generate?
The free cash flow of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. is $1.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY34) carry?
The net debt of O'Reilly Automotive Inc. is $5.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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