Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Humble Group AB (publ) $0.44, price $0.54, upside -18.5%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Humble Group AB (publ) develops, produces, and distributes fast-moving consumer goods in Sweden and internationally. It operates through four segments: Future Snacking, Sustainable Care, Quality Nutrition, and Nordic Distribution. The Future Snacking segment offers food, snack, and confectionery products.
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Humble Group AB (publ) develops, produces, and distributes fast-moving consumer goods in Sweden and internationally. It operates through four segments: Future Snacking, Sustainable Care, Quality Nutrition, and Nordic Distribution. The Future Snacking segment offers food, snack, and confectionery products. The Sustainable Care segment provides personal care and household products, such as skincare, oral care, hair care, and personal care products. The Quality Nutrition segment offers sports nutrition products and ingredients, as well as supplements for athletes and consumers. The Nordic Distribution segment provides a range of fast-moving consumer goods through a network of wholesalers and distributors. The company also sells ingredients and other raw materials. The company offers its products through grocery retailers, distributors, and online. The company was formerly known as Bayn Group AB (publ) and changed its name to Humble Group AB (publ) in April 2021. Humble Group AB (publ) was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF) currently trades at $0.5399, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4400, 18.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.9900 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the $0.5399 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at $0.0700, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.2200 (bear) to $0.6600 (bull), the price of $0.5399 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Humble Group AB (publ) reported revenue of 8.1B SEK in FY2025 versus 4.8B SEK in FY2022, a compound +19.0%/yr. Reported net income was 17.0M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $321M · P/E ratio 54.0 · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) $0.0100 · Net margin 0.2% · Return on equity 0.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6% · Revenue growth (YoY) +4.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −19%, HMBAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.2200Fair Value $0.4400Bull $0.6600
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0076 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.0% (2022) → 3.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in SEK, Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 634 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−46.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.30× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)54.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.07× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/FCF0.8× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA3.4× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)24· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)3· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)85· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Humble Group AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HMBAF
Frequently asked questions
Is Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4400 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.5399, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HMBAF?
Our model-based fair value for Humble Group AB (publ) is $0.4400 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.5399.
What is the quality score of HMBAF?
Humble Group AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4400 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2200, optimistic scenario $0.6600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Humble Group AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4400, about −19% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.5399 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2200, optimistic scenario $0.6600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Humble Group AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +0.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +19.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HMBAF use?
Our models discount Humble Group AB (publ) at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.08, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Humble Group AB (publ) that is +0.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Humble Group AB (publ) grew +19.0 % a year. The price currently implies +0.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Humble Group AB (publ) (+0.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.72 %: that much free cash flow Humble Group AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Humble Group AB (publ) it is $0.4400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.5399. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Humble Group AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HMBAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.5399, fair value $0.4400, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HMBAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.5399); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4400). For Humble Group AB (publ) the two are $0.0999 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Humble Group AB (publ) worth?
The market values Humble Group AB (publ) at about $321M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.5399; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HMBAF?
Our models span a range for Humble Group AB (publ): cautious scenario $0.2200, base $0.4400, optimistic $0.6600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.5399). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HMBAF?
Humble Group AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 54.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.4400 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.1, EV/EBITDA 3.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Humble Group AB (publ) (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.7%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Humble Group AB (publ)?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Humble Group AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.5399, calculated fair value $0.4400 (−19%), Quality Score 48/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HMBAF calculated?
We run Humble Group AB (publ) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Humble Group AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.5399. Our model-based fair value is $0.4400, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Humble Group AB (publ) right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.2200 to $0.6600). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Humble Group AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF)?
The market capitalisation of Humble Group AB (publ) is $321M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Humble Group AB (publ) is 0.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF)?
Earnings per share at Humble Group AB (publ) are $0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 54.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF)?
The net margin of Humble Group AB (publ) is 0.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Humble Group AB (publ) is 0.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Humble Group AB (publ) is 2.6% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF)?
Revenue at Humble Group AB (publ) is growing +4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF)?
Earnings per share at Humble Group AB (publ) are growing +144% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Humble Group AB (publ) (HMBAF) carry?
The net debt of Humble Group AB (publ) is 1.3B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026