HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBA) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · GB · Market cap 255B GBX
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from £15.34 to £13.06 (−14.9%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −0.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 13% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £2.71 – £15.97 · fair‑value band £9.79 – £16.32 · the £15.03 price screens above the £13.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBA) currently trades at £15.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £13.06, implying the stock looks roughly 13.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, HSBC Holdings PLC generated revenue of £63.8B at a net margin of 35.0%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.6%. Net debt stands at £256B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £9.79 (bear case) to £16.32 (bull case); at £15.03, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 73% fair-value upside, at -13%, HSBA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (£14.50) versus Asset-Based (£6.94). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
HSBC Holdings plc engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Hong Kong, UK, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and International Wealth and Premier Banking.
Full company description
HSBC Holdings plc engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Hong Kong, UK, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and International Wealth and Premier Banking. The Hong Kong segment is involved in the retail banking and wealth and commercial banking of HSBC Hong Kong and Hang Seng Bank. The UK segment engages in UK retail banking and wealth, as well as first direct and M&S Bank, UK Commercial Banking, and HSBC Innovation Bank. The Corporate and Institutional Banking segment is involved in transaction banking and capital markets. The International Wealth and Premier Banking segment is involved in the business comprising premier banking outside of Hong Kong and the UK, its private bank, asset management, and insurance businesses. The company was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HSBC Holdings PLC reported revenue of £151B in FY2025 versus £73.9B in FY2021, a compound +19.5%/yr. Reported net income was £22.8B in FY2025, compounding +13.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
HSBA screens 13% overvalued. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is HSBC Holdings (LSE:HSBA) Fully Valued On Its Expanded Debt Tender And Buyback?
- HSBC chief says ‘UK growth needs strong banks’ after profits swell by 23%
- HSBC offloads Singapore life arm in £1.6 billion deal
- HSBC Holdings (LSE:HSBA) Flags Caution Signals, Is The Stock Overvalued Or Undervalued?
Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 48 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $365.18 | $217.97 | -40% |
| Bank of America Corporation BOFA | C$31.78 | C$18.89 | -41% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.55 | ¥18.21 | +73% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.52 | ¥14.44 | +92% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.56 | ¥12.94 | +97% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥5.83 | ¥11.24 | +93% |
| Banco Santander, S.A SAN | 55.29 PLN | 31.78 PLN | -43% |
| UBS Group UBSN | 939.75 MXN | 565.45 MXN | -40% |
| Barclays PLC BCSN | 475.00 MXN | 332.60 MXN | -30% |
| Bank of Communications Co 601328 | ¥7.15 | ¥14.30 | +100% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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