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Agricultural Bank of China Limited (601288) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · CN · Market cap 2.2T CNY

AB Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 · SHG
Price¥6.50
Fair Value¥11.85
Upside+82.3%
Quality56/100
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Healthy Growth
Highly profitable · 49.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
4.09% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Wide moat 65/100
Evidence: High Range ¥8.89 – ¥14.81 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Share price +7.4% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 82% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥8.89). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥8.59 ¥2.53 Fair Value ¥11.85 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥2.53 – ¥8.59 · fair‑value band ¥8.89 – ¥14.81 · the ¥6.50 price screens below the ¥11.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Agricultural Bank of China Limited (601288) currently trades at ¥6.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.85, implying the stock looks roughly 82.3% undervalued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Agricultural Bank of China Limited generated revenue of 601B CNY at a net margin of 49.0%. Revenue grew 2.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 309B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥8.89 (bear case) to ¥14.81 (bull case); at ¥6.50, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 82%, 601288 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥92.58 ¥136.69 ¥204.00 80
Residual Income ¥8.89 ¥9.74 ¥12.86 76
ROIC Compounder ¥22.56 ¥24.50 ¥26.23 72
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥91.17 ¥141.22 ¥222.83 38
Owner Earnings ¥22.54 ¥29.44 ¥40.70 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥40.44 ¥46.12 ¥51.90 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥45.47 ¥55.67 ¥66.58 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥46.09 ¥56.84 ¥67.51 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥57.10 ¥66.71 ¥77.37 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥60.53 ¥73.54 ¥88.98 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥60.94 ¥74.37 ¥89.72 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥6.20 ¥20.57 ¥27.53 54
Lynch FV ¥4.65 ¥6.65 ¥8.64 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥4.65 ¥6.65 ¥8.64 46
EPV ¥22.56 ¥24.50 ¥26.23 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥7.02 ¥15.32 ¥25.77 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥7.02 ¥12.19 ¥15.96 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥13.67 ¥18.23 ¥22.79 63
P/S Multiple ¥4.25 ¥5.67 ¥7.09 58
P/B Multiple ¥11.62 ¥15.50 ¥19.37 55
EV/EBIT ¥28.06 ¥33.56 ¥39.06 53
EV/EBITDA ¥24.21 ¥28.42 ¥32.64 54
EV/Revenue ¥15.53 ¥17.23 ¥18.94 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥5.07 ¥6.79 ¥10.14 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥92.58 ¥136.69 ¥204.00 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥8.89 ¥9.74 ¥12.86 76
ROIC Compounder ¥22.56 ¥24.50 ¥26.23 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥11.63 ¥16.62 ¥21.60 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥136.69) versus Earnings-Based (¥6.65). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 601B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.3%
Net margin 49.0%
Return on equity 9.2%
Free cash flow 2.1T CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 8.1
More key figures
Operating margin 59.3%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.7900
Dividend yield 4.0%
EPS growth (YoY) +5.3%
Net cash 309B CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 27
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 89
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 31
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Agricultural Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, Treasury operations, and Others segments.

Full company description

Agricultural Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services. The company operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, Treasury operations, and Others segments. The Corporate Banking segment offers corporate loans and advances, trade finance, deposit products, corporate wealth management services, and other corporate intermediary services. The Personal Banking segment provides personal loans, deposit products, card business, and other personal intermediary services. The Treasury Operations segment conducts money market and repurchase transactions, debt instruments investments, precious metals transactions, and derivative transactions. It offers asset and fund management, financial leasing, life insurance, and investment banking services. It also provides inclusive finance, green finance, pension finance, digital and online financial services, and cross-border financial solutions, as well as services for rural revitalization. In addition, it provides demand, personal call, foreign currency call and time, time or demand optional, savings, agreed-term, and negotiated deposit accounts; certificates of deposit; and loans, including housing, consumer, personal auto, business, fixed asset, working capital, real estate, bonds, commercial drafts, entrusted syndicated loans, trade finances, guarantees and commitments, and loans with custody of export rebates accounts. In addition, it offers credit and debit cards, payment and settlement, private banking, cash management, custody, financial market, financial institution services, and trading. Further, it offers agro-related personal and corporate banking products and services; telephone, mobile, self-service, and SMS banking services; asset custodian services; and reinsurance. The company operates domestic and overseas branches, and representative offices. The company was founded in 1951 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Agricultural Bank of China Limited reported revenue of ¥724B in FY2025 versus ¥556B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥291B in FY2025, compounding +4.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
724B CNY
Latest YoY
+24.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+9.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+7.9%
Avg. growth/yr (23Y)
+12.6%
Revenue +6.8%/yr
FY21 ¥556B
FY22 ¥550B
FY23 ¥559B
FY24 ¥580B
FY25 ¥724B
Net income +4.8%/yr
FY21 ¥241B
FY22 ¥259B
FY23 ¥269B
FY24 ¥282B
FY25 ¥291B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Agricultural Bank of China Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601288

Peer Group

Banks - Diversified · 47 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Below median
Fair Value upside +82% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 49% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 59% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.1% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.10× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.67× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 3.63× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 1.38× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 36
FUTURE 12 · sector 25
PAST 37 · sector 42
HEALTH 95 · sector 52
DIVIDEND 82 · sector 67

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM $341.10 $278.99 -18%
Bank of America Corporation BAC $59.67 $55.89 -6%
China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 ¥10.16 ¥17.20 +69%
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 ¥7.50 ¥13.44 +79%
HSBC Holdings HSBC $100.52 $84.67 -16%
Royal Bank of Canada RY C$305.74 C$190.48 -38%
Bank of China Limited 601988 ¥5.88 ¥9.80 +67%
Wells Fargo & Company WFCS C$23.58 C$27.40 +16%
Banco Santander, S.A SAN 51.02 PLN 55.60 PLN +9%
UBS Group UBSN 939.75 MXN 534.84 MXN -43%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Agricultural Bank of China Limited (601288) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.85 versus a price of ¥6.50, about +82% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 601288?
Our model-based fair value for Agricultural Bank of China Limited is ¥11.85 (as of Jul 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥6.50.
What is the quality score of 601288?
Agricultural Bank of China Limited has a Quality Score of 56/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Agricultural Bank of China Limited (601288)?
Agricultural Bank of China Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 601B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 601288?
The net profit margin of Agricultural Bank of China Limited is about 49.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 49.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Agricultural Bank of China Limited pay a dividend?
Agricultural Bank of China Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.97% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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