Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China $25.14, price $18.97, upside +32.5%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.58 – $19.82 · fair‑value band $22.63 – $40.54 · the $18.97 price screens below the $25.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Treasury Operations segments.
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Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Treasury Operations segments. The Corporate Banking segment offers corporate loans, trade financing, deposit-taking activities, corporate wealth management services, custody services, and various types of corporate intermediary services, as well as corporate loans to corporations, government agencies, and financial institutions. Its Personal Banking segment provides personal loans, deposit-taking activities, card business, personal wealth management services, and various types of personal intermediary services to individual customers. The Treasury Operations segment engages in money market transactions, investment securities, and foreign exchange transaction activities. In addition, the company is involved in the fund raising, fund sales, asset management, and other businesses; financial leasing; insurance businesses, such as life, health, and accident insurance, as well as reinsurance; debt-for-equity swaps; and issuance of wealth management products, wealth management advisory, and consulting services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY) currently trades at $18.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.14, implying the stock looks roughly 24.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $29.69 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $18.97 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $15.35, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $22.63 (bear) to $40.54 (bull), the price of $18.97 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reported revenue of 1.5T CNY in FY2025 versus 940B CNY in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was 359B CNY in FY2025, compounding +0.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $426B · P/E ratio 6.1 · P/S ratio 1.47 · EPS (TTM) $2.99 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 24.1% · Return on equity 8.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 33%, IDCBY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $22.63Fair Value $25.14Bull $40.54
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.03 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+91.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+86.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.86.7% vs 38.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.44% → 28%
2025 sits 1,870% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−6.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.3% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Compare Industrial and Commercial Bank of China with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+32.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.9% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)55.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)65.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IDCBY
Frequently asked questions
Is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $25.14 versus a price of $18.97, about +33% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of IDCBY?
Our model-based fair value for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is $25.14 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.97.
What is the quality score of IDCBY?
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $25.14 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.63, optimistic scenario $40.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $25.14, about +33% upside versus a price of $18.97 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $22.63, optimistic scenario $40.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 673B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Industrial and Commercial Bank of China pay a dividend?
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.91% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.1 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IDCBY use?
Our models discount Industrial and Commercial Bank of China at 7.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Industrial and Commercial Bank of China that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China grew +11.1 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.05 %: that much free cash flow Industrial and Commercial Bank of China produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Industrial and Commercial Bank of China it is $25.14 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $18.97. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, IDCBY trades below its calculated fair value: price $18.97, fair value $25.14, a gap of about +33% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IDCBY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($25.14). For Industrial and Commercial Bank of China the two are $6.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China worth?
The market values Industrial and Commercial Bank of China at about $426B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $18.97; our models calculate a fair value of $25.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IDCBY?
Our models span a range for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China: cautious scenario $22.63, base $25.14, optimistic $40.54 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $18.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IDCBY?
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.1 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $25.14 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 0.7, P/S 4.2.
What is the PEG ratio of IDCBY?
The PEG ratio of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is 1.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 8.9%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IDCBY from its 52-week high?
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China trades at $18.97, about 4% below its 52-week high of $19.82 and 42% above the low of $13.39 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $25.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Industrial and Commercial Bank of China?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, Agricultural Bank of China Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $18.97, calculated fair value $25.14 (+33%), Quality Score 64/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IDCBY calculated?
We run Industrial and Commercial Bank of China through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $25.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China currently trades 25 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $18.97. Our model-based fair value is $25.14, about +33% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($22.63). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY) come from?
Earnings per share at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China grew +15.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.7 %, EBIT margin −2.1 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
How large is the market capitalisation of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
The market capitalisation of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is $426B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is 1.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
Earnings per share at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China are $2.99 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
The dividend yield of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is 4.9% (payout 31.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
The net margin of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is 24.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
The operating margin of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is 65.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
Revenue at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is growing +3.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)?
Earnings per share at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China are growing +4.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY) carry?
The net debt of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is 6.6T CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 16.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 28, 2026