Indra A (IDR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Indra A stock €44.45, price €62.40, upside -28.8%, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.22 – €64.78 · fair‑value band €24.38 – €61.13 · the €62.40 price screens above the €44.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Indra Sistemas, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology services for the defense, aerospace, and advanced digital technologies sectors in Spain, Brazil, the rest of America, Italy, the rest of Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
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It operates through the Defense, Air Traffic, Mobility, and Minsait segments.
The company engages in the design, development, production, integration, and maintenance of systems, solutions, and services based on the use of information technologies, including computing, electronics, and communications.
It also offers radars and radar systems, air defense systems, surveillance, security and unmanned vehicles, and shipboard systems for air and naval platforms; command and control systems, communications systems, and simulators; land military vehicles; unmanned aerial systems; satellite communication systems; air traffic management systems and equipment; air traffic control training services; and ticketing and tolling systems, information and control systems for multiple infrastructures and modes of transport, railway safety and signaling systems, and transport planning and consulting services.
In addition, the company provides proprietary product solutions; implementation of third-party solutions; digital business services, including business consulting, cybersecurity, and advanced technologies; traditional information technology (IT) services, such as IT outsourcing, business process outsourcing, IT restructuring management, and user management; and technology solutions for the energy and industry, telecom and media, public administration and healthcare, and financial services.
It offers its services to governments and public administrations under the Indra and Minsait brands. The company was formerly known as Experiencias Industriales S.A. and changed its name to Indra Sistemas, S.A. in 1993.
Indra Sistemas, S.A. was founded in 1921 and is headquartered in Alcobendas, Spain.
Stock analysis
Indra A (IDR) currently trades at €62.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €44.45, 28.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €55.62 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the €62.40 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €8.40, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €24.38 (bear) to €61.13 (bull), the price of €62.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Indra A reported revenue of €5.5B in FY2025 versus €3.4B in FY2021, a compound +12.6%/yr. Reported net income was €436M in FY2025, compounding +32.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €10.9B Large · P/E ratio 21.2 · P/S ratio 1.72 · EPS (TTM) €2.95 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 24.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at −29%, IDR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€24.38Fair Value €44.45Bull€61.13
Price €62.40 · Upside -28.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€2.18 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+34.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+34.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.29.4% vs 20.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 9%
2025 sits 127% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.5% a year for the price and +10.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (66 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Indra benefits from sharply growing defense and space revenues supported by a large order backlog, while its main weakness remains high leverage that may constrain durability.
Main risk: Execution challenges in scaling the combined operations after the bolt-on acquisitions would directly pressure margins.
Indra is acquiring a stake in cybersecurity firm TRC and radar specialist Dares Technology to strengthen its defense and digital security offerings ahead of a new strategic plan. Defense and space revenues have grown sharply while the order backlog stands at more than twenty billion euros. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will these bolt-on deals translate into sustained margins or expose execution challenges in scaling the combined operations?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 469 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−28.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)24.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)10.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)44.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.49× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)21.2× · Pricier than median
P/B6.30× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.72× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow24.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA18.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG4.26× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)98· sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)26· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 39
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Indra A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IDR.MC
Frequently asked questions
Is Indra A (IDR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €44.45 versus a price of €62.40, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IDR?
Our model-based fair value for Indra A is €44.45 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €62.40.
What is the quality score of IDR?
Indra A has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Indra A (IDR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €44.45 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €24.38, optimistic scenario €61.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Indra A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €44.45, about −29% upside versus a price of €62.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €24.38, optimistic scenario €61.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Indra A (IDR)?
Indra A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €6.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Indra A pay a dividend?
Indra A currently shows a dividend yield of 0.48% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Indra A (IDR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Indra A would have to grow free cash flow by +19.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.4 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IDR use?
Our models discount Indra A at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.00, country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Indra A that is +19.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Indra A (IDR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Indra A grew +12.4 % a year. The price currently implies +19.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Indra A (IDR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Indra A (+19.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Indra A (IDR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.09 %: that much free cash flow Indra A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Indra A (IDR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Indra A it is €44.45 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of €62.40. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Indra A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, IDR trades above its calculated fair value: price €62.40, fair value €44.45, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IDR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€62.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€44.45). For Indra A the two are €17.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Indra A worth?
The market values Indra A at about €10.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is €62.40; our models calculate a fair value of €44.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IDR?
Our models span a range for Indra A: cautious scenario €24.38, base €44.45, optimistic €61.13 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price €62.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IDR?
Indra A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €44.45 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 13.9. Other multiples: PEG 4.3, P/B 6.3, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 18.4.
What is the PEG ratio of IDR?
The PEG ratio of Indra A is 4.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Indra A (IDR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Indra A (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 24.5%, debt of 1.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IDR from its 52-week high?
Indra A trades at €62.40, about 4% below its 52-week high of €64.78 and 42% above the low of €44.03 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €44.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Indra A?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Indra A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price €62.40, calculated fair value €44.45 (−29%), Quality Score 48/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IDR calculated?
We run Indra A through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €44.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Indra A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Indra A (IDR)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was €62.40. Our model-based fair value is €44.45, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Indra A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€61.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€24.38 to €61.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Indra A
How large is the market capitalisation of Indra A (IDR)?
The market capitalisation of Indra A is €10.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Indra A (IDR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Indra A is 1.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Indra A (IDR)?
Earnings per share at Indra A are €2.95 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Indra A (IDR)?
The dividend yield of Indra A is 0.5% (payout 10.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Indra A (IDR)?
The net margin of Indra A is 7.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Indra A (IDR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Indra A is 24.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Indra A (IDR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Indra A is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Indra A (IDR)?
The operating margin of Indra A is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Indra A (IDR)?
Revenue at Indra A is growing +44.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Indra A (IDR)?
Earnings per share at Indra A are growing −6.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Indra A (IDR) carry?
The net debt of Indra A is €907M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026